FINAL 2014 SEA ICE MIN PREDICTION THREAD

[The_Global_Warmer]

Lay out it there folks.

[The_Global_Warmer]

I voted for 4.21-4.50 on Jaxa because I think 4.5 mil is in the can.  I expect huge losses between the Western ESS/Laptev/Kara and pole.

 

I would go lower but I expect the Western CAB to remain ice full all the way into the far Eastern Beaufort.

 

The Atlantic side won't be as bad as 2013 but that is a relatively small area while the ESS is huge.  And I feel very very confident the ESS is going to melt out this year. 

 

The N/NE PAC is warm above and below the surface there is a channel feeding warm water into the basin.  We saw a record opening of the Chukchi this year.

 

The current pattern is going to help melt ice in the Chukchi in-situ as well as push it away from the NE Alaskan coast.

 

Since it's high insolation time without an immediate pattern change irrevocable damage will take place and the ice will be easier to melt out in the 70-80N belt even with a good pattern later.

 

So that comes to 4.5 and I lean closer to 4.4 milkm2 rather then above 4.5 mil km2.

 

Remember 2013 was 4.8 mil on the next Jaxa numbers.

[PhillipS]

My choice of 3.91 - 4.2 for SIE, and 2.91 - 3.2 for SIA, are purely guesses based on my hunch that 2014 will bottom out near where 2007 did.

[ORH_wxman]

No change from January based on where we are currently.

 

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42514-predict-2014-arctic-sea-ice/?p=2674639

 

4.65 and 3.10. I'll probably up it a bit if we go through February with the negative dipole continuing to be the dominant pattern preventing big fram export.
 
The error bars will be huge on these predictions until we get to June.

 

 

 

 

 

I'll have a much better prediction in about 20 days.

[AvantHiatus]

Expecting a year that trails behind 2012 due to a pattern shift in late July. Next year will be the big one, in terms of a sub-3.0km min extent.

[Jonger]

Expecting a year that trails behind 2012 due to a pattern shift in late July. Next year will be the big one, in terms of a sub-3.0km min extent.

 

There are no indicators to base this on.

[AvantHiatus]

There are no indicators to base this on.

Way too far out for empirical reasoning, my hunch is that ice conditions will be poor going into next season.

[WinterWxLuvr]

Way too far out for empirical reasoning, my hunch is that ice conditions will be poor going into next season.

Hunch? LOL. What year do you expect us to hit the 80% extinction level?

I'll guess 4.74 on extent. Total guess, no knowledge to base it on.

[StudentOfClimatology]

My guess is similar to ORH's. I think the PV-type pattern will try to fight back against the amplified wave train.

[The_Global_Warmer]

If the weather is predominantly bad then I think I will be way to high this year.

 

If

[SVT450R]

I'm going with 4.7-5 on extent and 3.2-3.5 on area and 4.85-5.15 for volume.

[chubbs]

Just a guess 4.2-4.5 extent and 2.9-3.2 area . Warm winter and persistant flushing has taken its toll but recent pattern has been relatively benign.

[SVT450R]

I may have confused myself here did Jaxa 2013 4.8 min fall under the new revised jaxa version or was it still considered the old?

[ORH_wxman]

I may have confused myself here did Jaxa 2013 4.8 min fall under the new revised jaxa version or was it still considered the old?

 

 

4.8 in 2013 was the new jaxa min...the old jaxa had 5.0 million sq km in 2013.

[SVT450R]

4.8 in 2013 was the new jaxa min...the old jaxa had 5.0 million sq km in 2013.

Got it thanks for the clarification.

[frosty]

Jaxa sea ice extent one day min 5.2million km2 or above.

[JC-CT]

Hunch? LOL. What year do you expect us to hit the 80% extinction level?

2350

[skierinvermont]

4.5 and 3.2

[Jonger]

My guess is going to bust low... I'm thinking 4.8-5.2 km2 looks more likely now.

[StudentOfClimatology]

Mine might bust low also. I could see a > 5.0mil final, assuming we don't revert back to a 2007-12-esque dipole

[Wow]

Going with 5.0/3.6

[Mallow]

We're talking about JAXA extent v.2, right?

~4.4 for JAXA, ~3.45 for CT.

[Jonger]

We're talking about JAXA extent v.2, right?

~4.4 for JAXA, ~3.45 for CT.

 

Its possible, but that would require a near 2012 intensity torch + cyclone to accomplish at this point.

 

(Which is possible)

[Jonger]

Here's what 2014 is up against right now to go below 4.5km2

 

 

 

[tacoman25]

I went with 4.5 extent and 3.1 area in May, and I'd say now there is about a 75% chance both will end up too low. Area almost certainly.

[ORH_wxman]

I went with 4.5 extent and 3.1 area in May, and I'd say now there is about a 75% chance both will end up too low.

 

 

I would say that 3.1 is almost a lock to be too low....4.5 is probably on the lower bounds at the moment.

[frosty]

Quietly confident of my June 4th prediction of 5.2 extent or above

although we still have several weeks to go. The upcoming pattern looks

productive in ice retention though.

[The_Global_Warmer]

Quietly confident of my June 4th prediction of 5.2 extent or above

although we still have several weeks to go. The upcoming pattern looks

productive in ice retention though.

 

 

You are going to need a miracle from God to have higher extent then 2009 and 2005 on Jaxa.

[Jonger]

You are going to need a miracle from God to have higher extent then 2009 and 2005 on Jaxa.

5.2 isn't going to take a miracle, it's probably about 25-50% likely. Far from miraculous.

[ORH_wxman]

5.2 isn't going to take a miracle, it's probably about 25-50% likely. Far from miraculous.

 

 

I'd put it well under 25%.

 

We're talking the new revised jaxa here...not NSIDC or even the old jaxa. The new jaxa lopped off about 200k at the minimum vs the older dataset.