jburns Posted July 22, 2014 Share Posted July 22, 2014 Regarding early next week, cold front sweeps in late Mon into Tues on leading edge of digging trough over the Great Lakes / E U.S. It's another impressive looking trough for this time of year. Canadian is the deepest and farthest east with the trough (not as cloudy, but below normal temps, and drying out). GFS digs it into the east, then retrogrades it a bit to the west as Marion has outlined (cloudier, below normal temps, wetter pattern). Euro looks in between the 2 If you have to get locked into a pattern during the hottest time of the year, this one is a lot better than most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted July 22, 2014 Share Posted July 22, 2014 If you have to get locked into a pattern during the hottest time of the year, this one is a lot better than most. Agreed. The trough still looks like it is coming for early next week. This time of year it's really about the dew points. If we can get surface temps in the mid-upper 80s and dew points in the 50s we have to consider ourselves lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted July 22, 2014 Share Posted July 22, 2014 Agreed. The trough still looks like it is coming for early next week. This time of year it's really about the dew points. If we can get surface temps in the mid-upper 80s and dew points in the 50s we have to consider ourselves lucky. I will even take Dewpoints in the low 60s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted July 22, 2014 Author Share Posted July 22, 2014 Trough axis on this afternoon's GFS is a bit farther east during the Day 6, 7, 8 range...yesterday it was just east of the Mississippi where as today it almost lines up against the spine of the Southern Apps...there is a HUGE difference in weather depending on the placement...in either scenario the coastal plain would be in a sweet spot, yesterday's idea would provide the potential of a soaker all the way to the Apps...The trough does retrograde to West of the Apps past 192 hours...I wonder if that might be as much the model losing resolution (post truncation)... Regardless, we still got plenty of time to watch this evolve...It's going to be a very close call for some and I think for I-95, my confidence would be going up that some sort of moisture transport will be going up the East Coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted July 22, 2014 Share Posted July 22, 2014 Trough axis on this afternoon's GFS is a bit farther east during the Day 6, 7, 8 range...yesterday it was just east of the Mississippi where as today it almost lines up against the spine of the Southern Apps...there is a HUGE difference in weather depending on the placement...in either scenario the coastal plain would be in a sweet spot, yesterday's idea would provide the potential of a soaker all the way to the Apps... The trough does retrograde to West of the Apps past 192 hours...I wonder if that might be as much the model losing resolution (post truncation)... Regardless, we still got plenty of time to watch this evolve...It's going to be a very close call for some and I think for I-95, my confidence would be going up that some sort of moisture transport will be going up the East Coast. Just going off of memory, which is veeerrrry questionable, it seems that often in summer, fronts seem to stall just north of the area or over the area and wash out. This year, most of these seem to be clearing the area all the way to the coast. Given that, the more eastern trough placement may make sense. Like you said, plenty of time to watch it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted July 22, 2014 Author Share Posted July 22, 2014 Just going off of memory, which is veeerrrry questionable, it seems that often in summer, fronts seem to stall just north of the area or over the area and wash out. This year, most of these seem to be clearing the area all the way to the coast. Given that, the more eastern trough placement may make sense. Like you said, plenty of time to watch it. Yeah...the trend has been for the front to go deeper into the south... I've also learned through the years that a trough axis or frontal boundary rarely settles over the Appalachian Chain...usually forward momentum off the mountains will push it eastward... All that said, it's a close call. I do hope the GFS is correct in showing that retrograde but again...is that the model losing its resolution of is that really going to happen? We shall see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted July 22, 2014 Share Posted July 22, 2014 Michelle, I hope your dancin' worked for rain and you, and the portal vortex's relaxed the demon heat, and brought the clouds!! I know I either scared the weather, or shamed the moles because I've gotten 1.5 this past week or so, after a whole month or more of extra crispy nothing. Good times in Tonytown lately....and if it ain't rainin' it's cool and nice. I'd like to think precursor of the coming ice age, but I have my serious doubts, lol. Whatever, cut offs and cads are always welcome year round. T It has worked (somewhat), but I think Mother Nature just feel sorry for me I will totally agree re: cut offs and cads If you have to get locked into a pattern during the hottest time of the year, this one is a lot better than most. +1,000,000,000,000,000,000 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted July 22, 2014 Share Posted July 22, 2014 12z Euro/GFS/CMC all impressive with large scale trough in the eastern half of the U.S. for next week. Anomalous looking pattern not so anomalous this summer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted July 22, 2014 Share Posted July 22, 2014 12z Euro/GFS/CMC all impressive with large scale trough in the eastern half of the U.S. for next week. Anomalous looking pattern not so anomalous this summer Reverse the trough/ridge placement and you've got our standard winter pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted July 22, 2014 Share Posted July 22, 2014 Tick tock goes the clock on summer. What I see is that the hottest day of the year for mby climatologically is 7/25-7/26 - after that we begin the long, slow, and cold decent into winter. Winter is coming folks..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted July 22, 2014 Share Posted July 22, 2014 Tick tock goes the clock on summer. What I see is that the hottest day of the year for mby climatologically is 7/25-7/26 - after that we begin the long, slow, and cold decent into winter. Winter is coming folks..... I like your attitude Marietta! Each day the days get shorter and shorter! indeed winter is coming. As Grit said earlier the Euro is crazy with the trough in about a week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted July 23, 2014 Share Posted July 23, 2014 Holy mother of joseph check out the 00z Euro day 10....the day 10-15 ensemble mean is straight up blocky. haha. Is this July or December? IDK. I'm quoting myself here, but I'm just "bumping" my own post really as on twitter and facebook people are posting about the block and the associated effects. Check out the Euro at 240 back on the 17th! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted July 23, 2014 Share Posted July 23, 2014 0 GFS is showing some upper 40s dew points(w/n NC) at around day 7. As Marietta said Tic tock goes the summer... Just thinking, we would really be crying right now if the opposite pattern was occurring at this time in January. http://www.twisterdata.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted July 23, 2014 Author Share Posted July 23, 2014 Well, looks like our major trough axis for next week will slide to the east coast...which means pretty much everybody (even the coast) is going to dry out by this time next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted July 23, 2014 Share Posted July 23, 2014 0 GFS is showing some upper 40s dew points(w/n NC) at around day 7. As Marietta said Tic tock goes the summer... Just thinking, we would really be crying right now if the opposite pattern was occurring at this time in January. http://www.twisterdata.com/ Would be great if this meant we are going to get a very snowy winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted July 23, 2014 Share Posted July 23, 2014 Would be great if this meant we are going to get a very snowy winter. I think it foreshadows a winter full of 38/RN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted July 23, 2014 Share Posted July 23, 2014 The 12Z GFS basically keeps reloading troughing in the east through 384. If true, no big heat for at least 15 days. Yay! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted July 23, 2014 Share Posted July 23, 2014 Right now the models are a touch deeper with the eastern trough compared to the last polar arctic vortex drop. GFS and GFS MOS were around 3 degrees too warm with high temps during the mostly sunny days last go around. GFS on Meteostar has highs of 84 and 86 for Charlotte next Tues/Wed with mostly sunny skies...by deduction, that yields highs of 81 and 83, again under mostly sunny skies. Probably means 78-81 for Greensboro / 85-88 for Columbia. Long way off, but that's where we are right now with the numbers. Record low for Charlotte next Wed morning is 58. GFS has a forecasted low of 59 The greens will continue to creep southeast in this pattern to end the month... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted July 23, 2014 Share Posted July 23, 2014 Maxed out on the blue shading... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted July 24, 2014 Share Posted July 24, 2014 Maxed out on the blue shading... That map is a thing of beauty.... dare we say that Summer is winding down? By August 13th, climo shows the averages start dropping. I for one, am ready for the cooler weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted July 24, 2014 Share Posted July 24, 2014 RAH seems to be talking up the chance of storms tomorrow and heavy rain possible with them. Problem is they have been very isolated all summer long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted July 24, 2014 Author Share Posted July 24, 2014 That map is a thing of beauty.... dare we say that Summer is winding down? I wouldn't say that just yet... With a strong 594 dm ridge it can get plenty hot all the way up until near Labor Day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted July 24, 2014 Share Posted July 24, 2014 RAH seems to be talking up the chance of storms tomorrow and heavy rain possible with them. Problem is they have been very isolated all summer long. So is WRAL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted July 24, 2014 Share Posted July 24, 2014 So is WRAL. We'll see. We have seen that movie before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted July 24, 2014 Share Posted July 24, 2014 We'll see. We have seen that movie before. Well, it's a different setup than the typical hit or miss thunderstorm environment. The cold front should promote enough lifting to a very moist atmosphere, which should generate plenty of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted July 24, 2014 Share Posted July 24, 2014 I wouldn't say that just yet... With a strong 594 dm ridge it can get plenty hot all the way up until near Labor Day. at least we have almost completed 2 out of the 3 hottest months. One more month to go and we should be in the clear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted July 24, 2014 Share Posted July 24, 2014 I wouldn't say that just yet... With a strong 594 dm ridge it can get plenty hot all the way up until near Labor Day.at least we have sun angle and football season to battle that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted July 24, 2014 Share Posted July 24, 2014 From WRAL this morning: Two disturbances provide us with a chance of storms today. The first one, a pre-frontal trough, is moving through the area right now. The second one, a cold front, rolls through later this evening. Keep the umbrella handy all day! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted July 24, 2014 Share Posted July 24, 2014 Doesn't look like much of a severe threat today. Clouds/morning showers will limit instability. There still should be pretty good coverage of rainfall, though. Out in time, the GFS and Euro both still bring a deep trough over the area next week. They both leave troughing and retrograde it over the south, just west of the area, producing a moist Gulf flow through the SE. Day 10, the Euro tries to sneak the 594dm Atlantic ridge toward the area, while the GFS keeps it a little farther east. In fact, the GFS maintains troughing pretty much through the entire run. Outside of a hot day here or there, no sustained big heat is in sight. I'm confident we'll knock out July without a heat wave. I suppose August could turn around at some point, but if we can get through the first week or two of the month without big heat, there are a number of factors (as others have pointed out) that would make any late-August heat bearable: Diminishing sun angle and shorter days, the approach of football season, prelim winter forecasts, Brick ramping up for weenie mode, the return of BrierCreekWx-1300m-et al.... Can't wait! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim Posted July 24, 2014 Share Posted July 24, 2014 ..hi guys..hoping for a little long range forecast for OBX..20 of us from Long Island,NY coming down aug1-aug8.. ..the tropics look pretty quiet..any info much appreciated..thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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