calculus1 Posted July 18, 2014 Share Posted July 18, 2014 This event will leave many of the dry parts of the Carolinas out. This event is for mountains and western foothills only. Only widely scattered east and south of there. That's a pretty bold statement when the event has only just begun. How about we let it play out a little before deciding its ultimate fate? I'm in the western piedmont of NC and enjoying the rain showers today. Here are your last 14-day rainfall totals. You can see the areas in blue on the lee side of the Apps where there have been precip minimums lately: Here is the current radar for roughly the same area. (The rainfall looks broken up over western NC, but that's just the mountains getting in the way of the beam.) Looks to me like those blue-shaded areas from the first image are getting the rain. Those that aren't should get it within the next day or two as this slowly migrates east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted July 18, 2014 Author Share Posted July 18, 2014 Upstate people in panic mode already because the rain has focused along the Apps today...This is the first surge that has started the pattern, good southwest flow will last for at least 5 days. Everyone west of I-77 is going to get some decent rain...SMH! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted July 19, 2014 Share Posted July 19, 2014 In the old days they were called, the portals of hell. Indeed With all due respect, Buckeye, I must disagree. Areas to your north and west (that look to get the lion's share of rain this weekend) have not enjoyed wet anything lately. The GSP area and up through the western Piedmont of NC (all in the shadow of the Apps) have been continually shortchanged on rain recently due to the NW flow. This weekend's rainfall is actually great news for these dry areas to finally get a SW flow tapping moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. No downsloping should happen this weekend for these areas. In fact, they should experience the benefits of upsloping. I guess I should have been more specific when saying well west I was talking across the border....the upper corner of GA, eastern TN and western NC. That's a pretty bold statement when the event has only just begun. How about we let it play out a little before deciding its ultimate fate? I'm in the western piedmont of NC and enjoying the rain showers today. Here are your last 14-day rainfall totals. You can see the areas in blue on the lee side of the Apps where there have been precip minimums lately: You can see where the portals around CAE are located too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted July 19, 2014 Share Posted July 19, 2014 Beautiful wedge signature showing up today east of the Apps. I always did love July for its cool temperatures... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted July 20, 2014 Author Share Posted July 20, 2014 The first phase of our multi-day wet pattern have moved through the Southern Appalachian region with between 1-3 inches of rain in the NC Mountains/immediate foothills, extreme Northwest SC and Northeast GA...The rest of the Upstate and up 321 from Gastonia to Hickory has received on avg a half-inch of rainfall. We're in a lull right now with the cool and very damp conditions...however the second phase will begin later tomorrow as some upper low's in the 500/700/850mb region will form and drop down into the Southeast...this should begin to develop a good southeast and east flow for GA and the Carolinas. So I expect rainfall to increase again late tomorrow and Monday in particular, could last into Tuesday Mon 2 am... Mon 2 pm Tuesday 2 am Tuesday 2 pm... With a nice prolonged southeast flow the GFS responds with a nice QPF field for Georgia and South Carolina in particular...I would even expect a tongue of that to extend into WNC given the terrain. That's just a look at the potential through Tuesday, looking beyond...the flow may flatten out late this upcoming week for a couple days and then maybe a repeat ridge/trough alignment past Day 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted July 20, 2014 Share Posted July 20, 2014 Models liking the idea of continued troughing in the east through the extended range. Big heat nowhere in site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted July 20, 2014 Share Posted July 20, 2014 Models liking the idea of continued troughing in the east through the extended range. Big heat nowhere in site. yep nice couplet on some of the GFS runs and Euro Control, might see a return of our friend the PV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted July 20, 2014 Share Posted July 20, 2014 Big 3 largely in agreement for 8-10 day period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted July 21, 2014 Author Share Posted July 21, 2014 Been out of town the last several days and just now had a chance to look at the models ... I'm seeing a HUGE difference on the models for our next potential trough compared to the one that just passed through earlier this week. As we know the GFS and Euro is showing another potential trough to form over the Lakes Region by next weekend. Where as the previous trough was able to quickly depart, we have a different setup in the open Atlantic...the previous event we had an anticyclone over Florida and the SW Atlantic, a new 500mb ridge will be forming during the next 5-7 days, this time much farther north off the Mid Atlantic and New England Coastline...if the GFS is correct in its positioning, this ridge could serve as a block to prevent the trough making it to the east coast...and sure enough the 18z GFS is show that come Day 7... Beyond Day 7...our NW Atlantic Ridge actually grabs a stronger along with the 500mb ridge over the 4 Corners Region...there is nothing in the Pacific to serve as a kicker to break the western ridge down...so as a result the 500mb flow across North America is going to come to a hault by August 1st...climatology fits with the idea of building NW Atlantic heights, even though this is showing up on the GFS post-truncation, it wouldn't be too far-fetched for the time of the year..FWIW, this also serves to assist in the idea that some forecasters have noted in relation to in-close tropical development...but that's irrelevant to the point. If this all does evolve as the GFS is showing here, we got a potential full latitude trough retrograding its axis between the Apps and the Mississippi River with it possibly cutting off at the base of the trough...this would be quite the pattern for the Southeast and East Coast to start August It's way too early to say with any confidence that this could happen but it will be worth watching on the models through this week... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted July 21, 2014 Share Posted July 21, 2014 Great write up as usual Marion. I agree the next 10 days looks very interesting and active. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted July 21, 2014 Share Posted July 21, 2014 I agree with Met1985: Marion_NC_WX has been dropping some serious weather knowledge lately. Very nice write-ups, sir. Keep 'em coming! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted July 21, 2014 Share Posted July 21, 2014 ^ Completely agree. Always enjoy reading a Marion post. The general idea of troughiness over or just west of the area for the foreseeable future remains in the modeling with the overnight runs. Plenty of rain chances with this type of pattern. And still no big heat in sight!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted July 21, 2014 Share Posted July 21, 2014 Nice not having any real big heat to deal with, but on the other hand you can't really take advanatge of it and enjoy being outside with all the rain we're going to get the next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted July 21, 2014 Share Posted July 21, 2014 Nice not having any real big heat to deal with, but on the other hand you can't really take advanatge of it and enjoy being outside with all the rain we're going to get the next week. Scattered storms are typical in the summer. There will be plenty of chances to enjoy being outside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted July 21, 2014 Share Posted July 21, 2014 Scattered storms are typical in the summer. There will be plenty of chances to enjoy being outside. Not if it is going to be cloudy and rainging off and on all day like today. But I guess you can't have it all. Either have to deal with the big heat if it's sunny, or deal with the clouds and rain if it is going to be cooler. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted July 21, 2014 Share Posted July 21, 2014 Not if it is going to be cloudy and rainging off and on all day like today. But I guess you can't have it all. Either have to deal with the big heat if it's sunny, or deal with the clouds and rain if it is going to be cooler. It's not going to be raining on and off all day for the next 7 days. There will be nice periods for you to get outside. It will not be raining continuously. You'll see the sun and it'll be warm. You'll see some clouds and rain. Just be happy you aren't melting and you're not on water restrictions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted July 21, 2014 Share Posted July 21, 2014 It's not going to be raining on and off all day for the next 7 days. There will be nice periods for you to get outside. It will not be raining continuously. You'll see the sun and it'll be warm. You'll see some clouds and rain. Just be happy you aren't melting and you're not on water restrictions. We'll see. If today is any indication of what it will be like, there's not going to be a lot of sun for the next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted July 21, 2014 Author Share Posted July 21, 2014 I-85 Corridor from GSP to Greensboro getting soaked here at lunch time...looks to be moving slowly towards I-40. Flash Flood Warning along 321 from York to Gastonia...some areas west of Lake Wylie has picked up 6 inches of rain this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted July 21, 2014 Share Posted July 21, 2014 I'm not sure why parts of Spartanburg, Greenville, and Cherokee counties aren't under some kind of flood warning or advisory. These storms are dropping tons of rain and more are heading their way out of Laurens and Union counties. Just had 1 inch here in under 30 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted July 21, 2014 Share Posted July 21, 2014 It's not going to be raining on and off all day for the next 7 days. There will be nice periods for you to get outside. It will not be raining continuously. You'll see the sun and it'll be warm. You'll see some clouds and rain. Just be happy you aren't melting and you're not on water restrictions. Lol he was complaining about the lack of rain not to long ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted July 21, 2014 Author Share Posted July 21, 2014 I'm not sure why parts of Spartanburg, Greenville, and Cherokee counties aren't under some kind of flood warning or advisory. These storms are dropping tons of rain and more are heading their way out of Laurens and Union counties. Just had 1 inch here in under 30 minutes. Yeah, would think possible urban flooding or poor drainage is possible any time in the Spartanburg, Cherokee or Union Counties... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted July 21, 2014 Share Posted July 21, 2014 Lol he was complaining about the lack of rain not to long ago. And then we got a lot of rain last week in one day. In fact, it was a record for the most ever in one day. So, I don't really want a week full of cloudy days and rain in the summer instead of being able to enjoy doing things outside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted July 21, 2014 Share Posted July 21, 2014 Nice hole in the precipitation shield showing up over Catawba County. I've loved the cool days lately, but I've only picked up just over 0.25 inch of rain throughout this extended cool period since last Tuesday. I like the reverse pinwheel motion of these storms, from the retrograding upper low, but that precipitation is just not able to crack my area today. Perhaps as the day progresses and evolves into this evening things will change... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted July 21, 2014 Author Share Posted July 21, 2014 Got a first look at the afternoon models...no drastic changes in the evolution of the 500mb flow for later this week and beyond...the idea of a full latitude trough axis west of the Apps come August 1st still in play.Will also now have to monitor the activity in the tropical Atlantic this week as INVEST 92L looks healthy and appears to be headed to a classified tropical system soon...could be of interest to some part of North America in about a week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted July 21, 2014 Share Posted July 21, 2014 And then we got a lot of rain last week in one day. In fact, it was a record for the most ever in one day. So, I don't really want a week full of cloudy days and rain in the summer instead of being able to enjoy doing things outside. Bitching always needs timely efficient responses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted July 21, 2014 Share Posted July 21, 2014 We have a new depression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted July 21, 2014 Share Posted July 21, 2014 Sorry, couldn't attach it to my original post for some reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted July 22, 2014 Share Posted July 22, 2014 And then we got a lot of rain last week in one day. In fact, it was a record for the most ever in one day. So, I don't really want a week full of cloudy days and rain in the summer instead of being able to enjoy doing things outside.lol.. I have one serious question, do you really aggravate your wife? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted July 22, 2014 Share Posted July 22, 2014 Michelle, I hope your dancin' worked for rain and you, and the portal vortex's relaxed the demon heat, and brought the clouds!! I know I either scared the weather, or shamed the moles because I've gotten 1.5 this past week or so, after a whole month or more of extra crispy nothing. Good times in Tonytown lately....and if it ain't rainin' it's cool and nice. I'd like to think precursor of the coming ice age, but I have my serious doubts, lol. Whatever, cut offs and cads are always welcome year round. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted July 22, 2014 Share Posted July 22, 2014 Regarding early next week, cold front sweeps in late Mon into Tues on leading edge of digging trough over the Great Lakes / E U.S. It's another impressive looking trough for this time of year. Canadian is the deepest and farthest east with the trough (not as cloudy, but below normal temps, and drying out). GFS digs it into the east, then retrogrades it a bit to the west as Marion has outlined (cloudier, below normal temps, wetter pattern). Euro looks in between the 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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