The official 2014 Summer Discussion Thread

[griteater]

Temp anomalies for July so far are near normal to some below normal across the southeast.  Op and ensemble models are favoring more troughing or a weakness in the height field in the eastern U.S. in the mid and extended range, with ridging out west...which favors a continuation of the near normal temps, with probably more areas below normal than above.  Of course, normal is hot in the SE.

 

[Cold Rain]

^ Still looks like an unsettled period upcoming for many in the south/southeast after a few nice days.  GFS and Euro continue to advertise a SW flow, sandwiched between two ridges.  The GFS eventually migrates the western ridge east to the central US, which would create NW flow through the area, probably drying us out.  But until/if that happens, afternoon shower/storm chances should be at least climo, if not better.

[griteater]

^ On the ridge, I'm giving a lean to the Euro/Canadian suite which are a bit more troughy in the east compared to the GFS.  Canadian handled this arctic tundra polar vortex well

[Cold Rain]

^ On the ridge, I'm giving a lean to the Euro/Canadian suite which are a bit more troughy in the east compared to the GFS.  Canadian handled this arctic tundra polar vortex well

 

That is wise.  Euro looks good through D10.  Haven't looked at the Canadian eh.  But I'll tell ya, the more summer days we burn with a trough overhead, the potential window for extended heat shrinks.

[griteater]

From GSP...

A COOL NIGHT FOR MID JULY IS IN STORE AND IT NOW SEEMS ACOUPLE RECORD LOW TEMPS ARE IN PLAY. I HAVE SHADED MIN TEMPS ON THECOOLER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOP AS DEWPOINTS HAVE FALLEN INTOTHE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND ARE FORECAST TOCONTINUE TO FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S IN THE PIEDMONT. MIN TEMPFORECAST GRID FEATURES 54 AT AVL...62 AT CLT AND 63 AT GSP. SOMEMOUNTAIN LOCATIONS WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER 40S OVERNIGHT. THE LOWSAT AVL AND CLT WOULD TIE RECORDS FOR 17 JULY. 

Deep dry air sweeping into the SE on water vapor - http://synoptic.envsci.rutgers.edu/site/sat/sat.php?sat=east&url=../imgs/wv2_east_anim.gif

 

[Solak]

CAD in July???

 

 

THE REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...EARLY NEXT WEEK...LOOKS
POTENTIALLY UNSETTLED AS THE MID/UPR TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES SOUTH ACROSS THE TN VALLEY MOVES VERY LITTLE
DURING THIS TIME...WHILE AN INVERTED TROUGH GRADUALLY RETROGRADES
FROM NEAR THE GULF STREAM WEST TOWARD THE COASTAL PLAIN...WITH A
WARM SEASON CAD PATTERN PERSISTING ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT.
WHILE THIS PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST DECENT RAIN CHANCES EACH DAY...FOR
NOW WILL KEEP POPS LIMITED TO THE MID/UPPER-CHANCE RANGE GIVEN THAT
OUR FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW. THE TEMP FORECAST IS EQUALLY
CHALLENGING GIVEN THE POTENTIAL CAD PATTERN...WHICH WOULD KEEP TEMPS
WELL BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. FOR NOW WILL STICK
CLOSER TO NORMAL...BUT REALIZING THAT TEMPS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED
DOWN WITH TIME IF THIS FORECAST HOLDS. &&

[buckeyefan1]

CAE isn't impressed (imagine that ) with this weekends rain chances

 

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE H5 TROUGHING OVER THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE MODELS INDICATE THE REMNANTS
OF THE COLD FRONT SHIFTING BACK NORTHWARD WITH A SURFACE TROUGH IN
THE FORECAST AREA DURING MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE PATTERN SUPPORTS
POPS ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY. THE GFS...ECWMF...AND EKD MOS SUPPORT POPS
MAINLY 30 TO 40 PERCENT WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR CLIMATOLOGY.

[Solak]

62 tonight, 88 tomorrow.... yep, the 'polar vortex' is really kicking in bigtime!!!

[Cold Rain]

62 tonight, 88 tomorrow.... yep, the 'polar vortex' is really kicking in bigtime!!!

Haha! Yeah what a load.

The hype is just getting ridiculous. I had two separate people email me yesterday about the "big storm". One guy from work emailed about 10 am and said he was leaving work at 3 pm to avoid the big storm. Another guy not from work emailed me to ask about canceling an indoor activity because the big storm was coming.

What is going on???????!!!!! I don't get it at all. We've been under conditions far more favorable for severe weather this year but local media were going bananas about big storms and we never even got an MD from SPC. This is just getting ridiculous.

[franklin NCwx]

That is wise. Euro looks good through D10. Haven't looked at the Canadian eh. But I'll tell ya, the more summer days we burn with a trough overhead, the potential window for extended heat shrinks.

sun angle too.

[Jon]

That is wise.  Euro looks good through D10.  Haven't looked at the Canadian eh.  But I'll tell ya, the more summer days we burn with a trough overhead, the potential window for extended heat shrinks.

Holy mother of joseph check out the 00z Euro day 10....the day 10-15 ensemble mean is straight up blocky. haha.

 

Is this July or December? IDK.

 

[Cold Rain]

^ That's pretty amazaing, Jon.  In winter, I'd be looking for some frozen precip with that map!

[jburns]

Holy mother of joseph check out the 00z Euro day 10....the day 10-15 ensemble mean is straight up blocky. haha.

 

Is this July or December? IDK.

 

 

 

^ That's pretty amazaing, Jon.  In winter, I'd be looking for some frozen precip with that map!

 

And that is how you know it is July.

[mackerel_sky]

This blocky pattern and east coast trough, will likely keep occurring until early Dec., then break down !

This weekend rains look to be heaviest west of the apps, but maybe we can get some decent totals for everyone!

[metalicwx366]

This blocky pattern and east coast trough, will likely keep occurring until early Dec., then break down !

This weekend rains look to be heaviest west of the apps, but maybe we can get some decent totals for everyone!

Everyone you say? Hmm... I'll be waiting for some rain then this weekend.

HPC has me disappointed. I was excited for this.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/archives/qpf/20140717/p168i_2014071700_fill.gif

Now it's showing this.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif

[Marion_NC_WX]

Looking at some of the afternoon data...I still like where the flow aloft is heading over the next 3-5 days...Tennessee Valley, So Apps and Western Carolinas, I think (cross fingers), are gonna get some much needed rainfall.

Eastern Carolinas/South GA may be on the edge of everything...however, still a pretty good 850mb flow coming from the Southeast.

[mackerel_sky]

Where is everybody at? The big wet is coming!

Looking like a solid chance of rain the next 4-6 days with temps in the low-mid 80s. That's just what alot of us need! ( Waycross not included, they will continue hot and dry!).

[Snowless in Carrollton]

Where is everybody at? The big wet is coming!

Looking like a solid chance of rain the next 4-6 days with temps in the low-mid 80s. That's just what alot of us need! ( Waycross not included, they will continue hot and dry!).

sure beats 95 and dry that we often have this time of year. The summer is turning out to be pretty nice. I wonder what August has in store ?

[WxJordan]

 

The GFS and its ensembles are showing very high rain totals through Monday morning. This is the 12z run, and it shows very high rain totals from the mountains of North Carolina and Virginia into the northern and central parts of Georgia. This is due to a weak upper level disturbance and weak southeasterly flow riding up the mountains.

I would not be shocked to see some areas receive 3-5 inches of rain in the mountains of the Carolinas, because the storm motion should be relatively slow.

The cut off will be sharp from west to east, and it is hard to say where exactly it will set up. But I expect some high rain totals this weekend across parts of the southeast United States.

[buckeyefan1]

 

 

The GFS and its ensembles are showing very high rain totals through Monday morning. This is the 12z run, and it shows very high rain totals from the mountains of North Carolina and Virginia into the northern and central parts of Georgia. This is due to a weak upper level disturbance and weak southeasterly flow riding up the mountains.

I would not be shocked to see some areas receive 3-5 inches of rain in the mountains of the Carolinas, because the storm motion should be relatively slow.

The cut off will be sharp from west to east, and it is hard to say where exactly it will set up. But I expect some high rain totals this weekend across parts of the southeast United States.

That would be somewhere well west of the portals          Needless to say, those that have enjoyed a wet winter and spring, will continue to do so       

[Cold Rain]

What are the portals, Buckeye?

[buckeyefan1]

What are the portals, Buckeye?

They are giant furnacelike circular areas that spew heat and dry winds all around Columbia, causing all weenies in the area to have their dreams crushed over and over and over and over            

[Marion_NC_WX]

I see Robert has updated his site...since you guys have been wanting his expertise over the last few weeks. He has been watching this as well ever since the idea of a quick moving mega-trough was put on the table...

 

Anyone who follows simple Meteorology knows that when you get a sharp dig in the jet, some things get left behind if the main core lifts in a hurry.

 

The stratiform look to the rain tonight over the Arklatex sure is nice to see...I think some people who have been asking for rain lately may be catching up fairly soon.

[FoothillsNC]

 

The GFS and its ensembles are showing very high rain totals through Monday morning. This is the 12z run, and it shows very high rain totals from the mountains of North Carolina and Virginia into the northern and central parts of Georgia. This is due to a weak upper level disturbance and weak southeasterly flow riding up the mountains.

I would not be shocked to see some areas receive 3-5 inches of rain in the mountains of the Carolinas, because the storm motion should be relatively slow.

The cut off will be sharp from west to east, and it is hard to say where exactly it will set up. But I expect some high rain totals this weekend across parts of the southeast United States.

Good post, and I agree. This is the first time a decent southeast Upslope occurs in a while that includes northern GA, extreme nw SC, most of West NC, and a sharp cutoff eastward at first. Eventually a weak Bermuda ridge develops, and holds, for once. That alone is pretty good for most of the Southeast, but the models are slow to show much rain for central Carolinas and central, east VA right now, but do show a max in the Apps and points west. Atleast it's not a total west flow anymore, there's some mid level and upper level southwest flow to go with the surface south winds, so the Atlantic and Gulf are both involved, or will be. The European shows a pretty good weakness between the truly MASSIVE western ridge and weak Bermuda ridge--usualy a recipe for atleast climo pops in the Southeast. Looking at GFS and ECMWF totals at the surface, the ECM actually shows some 5" totals near the Savannah river, both sides and other spots in the next 7 days, with a slowly retrograding weak upper low. This is decent, not quite last Summer type, but much better than west and northwest flow atleast for a little while. Some spots in GA and SC have had a quarter inch total rain in the last 60 days. Pathetic.

[buckeyefan1]

Good post, and I agree. This is the first time a decent southeast Upslope occurs in a while that includes northern GA, extreme nw SC, most of West NC, and a sharp cutoff eastward at first. Eventually a weak Bermuda ridge develops, and holds, for once. That alone is pretty good for most of the Southeast, but the models are slow to show much rain for central Carolinas and central, east VA right now, but do show a max in the Apps and points west. Atleast it's not a total west flow anymore, there's some mid level and upper level southwest flow to go with the surface south winds, so the Atlantic and Gulf are both involved, or will be. The European shows a pretty good weakness between the truly MASSIVE western ridge and weak Bermuda ridge--usualy a recipe for atleast climo pops in the Southeast. Looking at GFS and ECMWF totals at the surface, the ECM actually shows some 5" totals near the Savannah river, both sides and other spots in the next 7 days, with a slowly retrograding weak upper low. This is decent, not quite last Summer type, but much better than west and northwest flow atleast for a little while. Some spots in GA and SC have had a quarter inch total rain in the last 60 days. Pathetic.

To the bolded.....I agree            This is probably the best chance mby has had in awhile     It's not gonna rival any totals from those to my west (or even to my north) but something more than a few sprinkles will sure be nice   

[jburns]

They are giant furnacelike circular areas that spew heat and dry winds all around Columbia, causing all weenies in the area to have their dreams crushed over and over and over and over            

 In the old days they were called, the portals of hell.

[calculus1]

That would be somewhere well west of the portals          Needless to say, those that have enjoyed a wet winter and spring, will continue to do so       

 

With all due respect, Buckeye, I must disagree.  Areas to your north and west (that look to get the lion's share of rain this weekend) have not enjoyed wet anything lately.  The GSP area and up through the western Piedmont of NC (all in the shadow of the Apps) have been continually shortchanged on rain recently due to the NW flow.  This weekend's rainfall is actually great news for these dry areas to finally get a SW flow tapping moisture from the Gulf of Mexico.  No downsloping should happen this weekend for these areas.  In fact, they should experience the benefits of upsloping.

[Met1985]

Rainfall has commenced here in WNC. wxjordan and Foothills It looks like the southern APPS are going to get nailed. The way the cutoff Is rolling in and the way the precipitation is moving this looks like a prime pattern for the southern mountains to cash in on. Also great input by everyone on this upcoming pattern.

[Cold Rain]

They are giant furnacelike circular areas that spew heat and dry winds all around Columbia, causing all weenies in the area to have their dreams crushed over and over and over and over

Haha! Thanks!

[jshetley]

This event will leave many of the dry parts of the Carolinas out. This event is for mountains and western foothills only. Only widely scattered east and south of there.