buckeyefan1 Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 The incredible winter of 2013-14 was the winter of the CAD event. It was in stark contrast to recent winters with a lack of them. The CAD events appeared over and over in 2013-4. We were spoiled. I wonder how long it will be before we have another like it. I'll let you know when they disappear again Those lovely CAD's have been hanging around for well over a year now I'm looking forward to continuing CAD's as we head into next summer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxJordan Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 It is no secret that we will have a powerful cold front pass on Tuesday, and with that, a chance of showers and thunderstorms developing. Severe weather threat is marginal, but I still expect severe storms to develop Tuesday afternoon. Some of the storms may try to organize, and the greatest threat will be damaging winds. After this, the front may try to stall just off the coast of NC, and then the flow will begin to come from the southeast at the lowest level. Looking at the 18z GFS in Hickory, NC, the flow stays (albeit light) out of the southeast from Thursday through Friday. On Saturday, the flow returns from the southwest. Any small disturbances could help to develop showers and thunderstorms in the southeast. Regardless, showers and storms will be returning quickly to many areas of the southeast United States late in the week and into the weekend, and the showers and storms could be numerous depending where the pieces of energy track around the area of low pressure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted July 14, 2014 Author Share Posted July 14, 2014 It is no secret that we will have a powerful cold front pass on Tuesday, and with that, a chance of showers and thunderstorms developing. Severe weather threat is marginal, but I still expect severe storms to develop Tuesday afternoon. Some of the storms may try to organize, and the greatest threat will be damaging winds. After this, the front may try to stall just off the coast of NC, and then the flow will begin to come from the southeast at the lowest level. Looking at the 18z GFS in Hickory, NC, the flow stays (albeit light) out of the southeast from Thursday through Friday. On Saturday, the flow returns from the southwest. Any small disturbances could help to develop showers and thunderstorms in the southeast. Regardless, showers and storms will be returning quickly to many areas of the southeast United States late in the week and into the weekend, and the showers and storms could be numerous depending where the pieces of energy track around the area of low pressure. Both the GFS and Euro have been showing a very potent vort that rounds the base of the trough on either Friday or Saturday and to me would be worth watching as we go through the week...at the very least it could spawn a meso scale complex or if the vort is strong enough could try to close off for a short period, I'm gonna stay up until the 0z GFS gets into the medium range just to see what it does... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 This is from a ppt presentation that RaleighWx use to have on his website... Nice, thanks for the info! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 The 12z GFS keeps all death ridging out of the SE through the entire run. We get hit with some NW flow from time to time, but toward the end of the run, troughing sets up in the east, sandwiched between a ridge out west and one out in the Atlantic. This would be beneficial for rains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted July 14, 2014 Author Share Posted July 14, 2014 The 12z GFS keeps all death ridging out of the SE through the entire run. We get hit with some NW flow from time to time, but toward the end of the run, troughing sets up in the east, sandwiched between a ridge out west and one out in the Atlantic. This would be beneficial for rains. Yeah...the positioning of the ridge/trough orientation is important...these last couple ridges have been centered Rockies and east which means the East Coast trough has oriented itself right on the coast...which for most people has put them on the backside. Would like to see more of a Rockies/west oriented ridge and the trough axis farther west so we can get into Southwest flow instead of west flow at 500 mb... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted July 14, 2014 Author Share Posted July 14, 2014 Not sure if its going to be accurate but I really like what I have been seeing with recent runs of the European(including today's 12z) in regards to Friday into Saturday...its quite honestly one of the better 500/850mb setups I have seen all summer long... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 FWIW, it looks like the Euro/Canadian combo is going to verify better than the GFS in terms of how deep this trough is and how far south the cool front presses south. It took some time for the GFS to come around to the notion that the front will clear most of the SE. Hard to tell what the late week wave dropping out of the Pac NW will lead to. It looks like to me that the core of the precip will run along the Apps and west, with the core of the precip running from TN > WV > PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 FWIW, it looks like the Euro/Canadian combo is going to verify better than the GFS in terms of how deep this trough is and how far south the cool front presses south. It took some time for the GFS to come around to the notion that the front will clear most of the SE. Hard to tell what the late week wave dropping out of the Pac NW will lead to. It looks like to me that the core of the precip will run along the Apps and west, with the core of the precip running from TN > WV > PA The rich just keep getting richer.....imagine that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 Not sure if its going to be accurate but I really like what I have been seeing with recent runs of the European(including today's 12z) in regards to Friday into Saturday...its quite honestly one of the better 500/850mb setups I have seen all summer long... Your 500mb image nicely shows the southern trough. We've had troughing swing through the norther tier all summer. Getting a cut-off or troughing farther south, like the map shows, turns the flow out of the SW, like you said. This would be a better set-up than we've seen for a lot of the summer so far. Like Grit said, it's possible the better rain chances could be a bit west of the area, but it's still enough out there to not worry too much about that just yet. I would think all of us would benefit, eventually...except Waycross, maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 Your 500mb image nicely shows the southern trough. We've had troughing swing through the norther tier all summer. Getting a cut-off or troughing farther south, like the map shows, turns the flow out of the SW, like you said. This would be a better set-up than we've seen for a lot of the summer so far. Like Grit said, it's possible the better rain chances could be a bit west of the area, but it's still enough out there to not worry too much about that just yet. I would think all of us would benefit, eventually...except Waycross, maybe. What I'm thinking is...after this front clears, we then go into a bit of a drier and 'cooler' regime...so as the Pac NW wave drops in, the precip it generates up this way will be more stratiform in nature instead of convective...and it looks like the main forcing from the wave tracks from TN to WV. The front does move back north as the wave approaches, so would think we at least some precip associated with it (Sat.). Of course, my 'thinking' could be hogwash Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 Cold Rain, I think tomorrow is going to be active out your way though Raleigh NWS likes it... THE MID WEST UPPER TROF WILL CONTINUE AMPLIFYING AS IT TRANSLATESSLOWLY EAST INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY...NUDGING A COLD FRONT TO THEMOUNTAINS AROUND SUNRISE. THIS FRONT WILL MERGE WITH THE LEE TROFALREADY IN PLACE AND RESUME ITS MARCH ACROSS THE AREA DURING MAXHEATING. SHEAR WILL BE STRONGER/DEEPER...WITH LOW LEVEL FLOWINCREASING TO AROUND 30KTS IN THE AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY WILL BEAMPLE...WITH PWATS FROM 1.8" WEST TO 2.2" EAST AND ROBUSTINSTABILITY (CAPE 1.5K - 2.5K). WILL ALSO HAVE STRONG DIFFLUENCEALOFT AS WE COME UNDER THE ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UNSEASONABLY STRONGUPPER JET LIFTING INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. EXPECT CONVECTIONTO INCREASE RAPIDLY IN THE WEST...WITH WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY BY MAXHEATING. STORMS WILL BE DEEP AND THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE DAMAGINGWIND AND PERHAPS SOME 1 INCH-PLUS HAIL. Good view of the cool front with Precipitable Water map (8PM Tues).. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 What I'm thinking is...after this front clears, we then go into a bit of a drier and 'cooler' regime...so as the Pac NW wave drops in, the precip it generates up this way will be more stratiform in nature instead of convective...and it looks like the main forcing from the wave tracks from TN to WV. The front does move back north as the wave approaches, so would think we at least some precip associated with it (Sat.). Of course, my 'thinking' could be hogwash Cold Rain, I think tomorrow is going to be active out your way though Yeah, after the front, looks dry and cool for a while. I doubt your thinking is hogwash though. It's usually pretty spot on. I am hoping that ridging orients itself in a way that channels moisture up through the area. That "channel" may set up west, though, initially. As the front backs up, we should get back into a more unstable regime and if we have a good moisture plume along with some cyconlic flow aloft, we'll be in business. We'll have to see how the features align. But more than anything, I'm excited about it not being super duper hot. On tomorrow, we definitely have an anomalously strong front (and associated dynamics) for this time of year. Not really worried about spin-ups, but if we can gain enough instability through insolation, we should get an organized wind threat. I am always leary of strong instability when I hear the words "early convection" or "cloud cover". Moisture content should be high, and at least some decent instability will be present. That along with stout forcing should yield a fairly active day. The magnitude of the threat will ultimately depend on how clear the skies are for the first half of the day. By the way, that's a nice graphic! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Why are the local TV mets here acting like 85 degrees for a couple of days is an arctic blast? I think they are getting bored with the weather lately. 85 degrees is still hot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Why are the local TV mets here acting like 85 degrees for a couple of days is an arctic blast? I think they are getting bored with the weather lately. 85 degrees is still hot.Just to bother you! Our high are forecast to be 82-83 for 3 or 4 days and that's seven -ten degrees below are avg highs and coming off a week of 90-96, I'll call it a summertime arctic blast, could even hold in the 70s Saturday , maybe an isolated upper 50s degree low wed night or thurs night, if clouds are not to thick! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 I know it's going to be not as hot, but 85 is still pretty hot. It's not refreshing and Fall-like, which some local TV mets have said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 I know it's going to be not as hot, but 85 is still pretty hot. It's not refreshing and Fall-like, which some local TV mets have said. Dew point will be low as well. Should be alot more comfortable than it has been lately Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Today looks like a dud in my area again, shocking! GSP say best forcing, cape, bla, blah , blah will be along 77 corridor , including CLT, of course. Now focusing my attention on the drought-busting rains to come my way Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 I know it's going to be not as hot, but 85 is still pretty hot. It's not refreshing and Fall-like, which some local TV mets have said. You're talking about Libby Gardner. I have to agree with you. 85 is hardly a taste of fall. I don't care if the dew point is 0. If it were in the 70s, then yeah, maybe. No doubt it's going to feel better. But it's going to feel like a nice summer day...not a nice fall day or a nice winter day or an arctic blast or an ice age. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 You're talking about Libby Gardner. I have to agree with you. 85 is hardly a taste of fall. I don't care if the dew point is 0. If it were in the 70s, then yeah, maybe. No doubt it's going to feel better. But it's going to feel like a nice summer day...not a nice fall day or a nice winter day or an arctic blast or an ice age. Yeah, it looks nice at night, but still going to be hot during the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Yeah, it looks nice at night, but still going to be hot during the day. The dew point is going to be the big news with this pattern. There's going to be a large range of dew points setting up across the state for the next couple of days. Last night's discussion from RAH, stated there could be some dew points in the 40s near the Traid ranging to the mid 60s near Goldsboro. Looking at the GFS this morning it looks like the 60 degree line will (more of less) setup near Raleigh. http://www.twisterdata.com/ **select GFS, moisture, and then dew point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Falls, Brick will never click on that kind of link. And you know this...MAN! Nice try though. Check out the 384 GFS image from eWall (yeah it actually worked today...at least for the 0z). It's the 384, so it's not worth anything, but it's just amazing at how much it looks like a winter pattern. Even the GFS doesn't usually print out these patterns in the summer. And there are similar looks at shorter time frames too: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 I know it's going to be not as hot, but 85 is still pretty hot. It's not refreshing and Fall-like, which some local TV mets have said. but it will be a "dry" heat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Falls, Brick will never click on that kind of link. And you know this...MAN! Nice try though. OK, this was funny. You forgot to put the word "ever" in there...like, Brick will never, ever, click on that kind of link. I didn't pick up on it at first, but that WAS a slick move by Falls. GFS has a monster ridge out west for early next week with a few specs of high temps pushing 110 in South Dakota next Tues. We don't want any part of that nudging east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 ^ Yeah...keep that mess west. I don't ever ever ever ever want to see those temps around here again. Btw, you're getting me hooked on the DuPage maps. They're pretty slick! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted July 15, 2014 Author Share Posted July 15, 2014 Today looks like a dud in my area again, shocking! GSP say best forcing, cape, bla, blah , blah will be along 77 corridor , including CLT, of course. Now focusing my attention on the drought-busting rains to come my way Saturday Until the flow turns to South or Southwest at 500 mb...I'm afraid you guys in Upstate SC and the US-74 Cooridor in Western North Carolina (Forest City, Shelby, Gastonia) are going to remain dry...I do see some good signs in regards to late this week, we might be able to get that to happen at least on a temporary basis...I'll go into more detail later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Falls, Brick will never click on that kind of link. And you know this...MAN! Nice try though. Check out the 384 GFS image from eWall (yeah it actually worked today...at least for the 0z). It's the 384, so it's not worth anything, but it's just amazing at how much it looks like a winter pattern. Even the GFS doesn't usually print out these patterns in the summer. And there are similar looks at shorter time frames too: LOL --always trying to help a brother (..Brick) out.. I agree on the extended. Really hopeful for this trough to continue or to get re-established during the next few weeks. Usually, once we get hot(early June) it stays that way until sometime in early September. Everything we get right now is a gift; even if it is only lower dew points. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted July 15, 2014 Author Share Posted July 15, 2014 I'm really starting to think a good portion of the Southeast US is getting ready to enter an active run starting this weekend and lasting into the early parts of next week...After this huge trough slides through, a really strong vort max is going to dive from the Rockies into the Red River Basin...this is almost a look you would see in the winter months. Check out this vort as it dives down...I have to believe we'll have a pretty much MCS feature with possible stratiform rains to the north and east of the vort due to the drier air what was laid down with the initial trough...more severe nature in the warm sector...this will be a W-E moving convective feature rather than a NW-SE mover which is more common with MCS activity.24 hours... 60 hours...by this time you have a strong convective feature moving across the Red River and into Arkansas. 84 hours...Sheared out vort moving across Alabama by Friday night but will still be enough to activate numerous showers and storms...will have to see in later runs whether the GFS is doing its typical bias of dying out vorts too quicky... This strong vort will be phase 1 of this multi-facet event as the Arklatex, Mid South and some parts of the interior southeast could see enhanced rainfall chances through Saturday. As this vort departs...heights are going to rise across the Four Corners region allowing a weakness to form in the Southeastern US...by 120 you can see a cyclonic flow established at both 500/850 mb @120... @168... This cyclonic flow is going to result in an uncapped atmosphere over a significant area of the southeast...also deep moisture will be pulled in and will be in place for any storm to feed itself. As far as the areas I could see cashing in...I think Alabama, Northern half of Georgia, TN, SoApps Region (south upslope) and possibly Upstate SC and Charlotte Metro could benefit from this. South GA, Coastal Carolinas will be farther away from the influences aloft but with the amount of moisture being shown on the models, any sea breeze or mesoscale influences will have plenty of fuel to work with... I think some areas who have been dry in the past couple months have a legit shot at getting some much needed rainfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted July 15, 2014 Author Share Posted July 15, 2014 Here's a couple additional maps from the 12z GFS...the atmosphere across the Tennessee Valley/Apps/Southeast (West of I-77) is going to be loaded starting late this weekend and into next week... Day 5 700mb rh values... Day 6 700mb rh Day 5/6 PWAT's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 RAH talking about potential upper 50s for some. Afternoon discussion: .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...THE MUCH TALKED ABOUT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER EASTERN NCTO START THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AND IS THEN PROGGED TO STALL SOUTH OFTHE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TOWARDS THE EAST COAST. AS DRIERAIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE FRONT...PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO BE COMING TOAN END ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN ON WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH ALL THERAIN EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 18-21Z. THEN WITHSURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BECOMING THE DOMINATE FEATURE AND PWAT VALUESFALLING BELOW 1.25 INCHES (EVEN BELON AN INCH ON THURSDAY)...MOSTLYDRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE MAIN FOCUSFOR THESE DAYS WILL BE THE COOLER TEMPS...AS HIGHS WILL ONLY BE INTHE LOW TO MID 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL IN THE LOWER 60S(WITH EVEN SOME UPPER 50S POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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