The official 2014 Summer Discussion Thread

[WxJordan]

Article that I just posted on my website about the upcoming cold spell.....

A break from the summer heat is coming soon to the Carolinas as a powerful cold front delivers September temperatures.

A ridge of high pressure is expected to develop over the west coast of the United States, which is going to cause a large trough to dig southward from Canada. This trough is going to come deep into the United States, which is abnormal for this time of year.

What is causing this to occur? It is actually linked to former Typhoon Neoguri. Yes, a former Typhoon is going to help to push this cold air southward. How? The storm will cause an area of low pressure in Alaska to strengthen, causing a ridge to develop downstream over the west coast. This will allow cool air from Canada to spill into the midwest and eastern United States next week.

I expect temperatures across a large area east of the Rocky Mountains to be 10-20 degrees below average in the middle of next week.

Below is the GFS Model showing the 500 mb heights. Areas with higher heights, or where there is a ridge, is where we expect to find warmer air. Areas with lower heights, or where there is a trough, is where we expect to find cooler air.

The graphic above shows the ridge beginning to build across the western United States and Canada Friday afternoon. It will take through the end of the weekend for this ridge to build, and then we will begin to see the cold front and trough dig into the eastern United States.

This is the GFS model early Monday morning. You can see the large ridge in the western United States, and in response, a trough is digging in the eastern United States.

Accompanying this trough will be a very powerful cold front, which has the potential to bring severe weather to a large portion of the midwest and eastern United States. The best forcing will be north of the Mason Dixon line; however, I expect severe weather will break out all through the southeast United States with the frontal passage. There will be a sharp temperature and moisture gradient, which will help to fuel the storms. The front will pass through the Carolinas Tuesday, so I am expecting the best chance of showers and storms Tuesday evening. The GFS model tries to stall the front along the eastern seaboard, but I am not sold on this idea, so I will advertise the front pushing off the coast by Wednesday morning.

Behind the front, temperatures will be very pleasant for middle July. Some areas in the mountains will struggle to reach the 70s with lows in the 50s. Outside the mountains, I will not be shocked to see piedmont areas in the Carolinas struggling to reach 80 Wednesday and Thursday before we begin to warm things up again.

This is the GFS Ensemble model temperature anomaly through July 20th. This graphic shows the temperatures well below average from the plains to the east coast over the next ten days.

We return to reality by the end next weekend with temperatures returning to July averages, but until then, enjoy this nice break from the July heat.

[WxJordan]

The NAO and AO are not going drastically negative, so cold air wont push that far south. Probably some average to slightly below average temperatures for the SE. Different story for the northern states... Hate to be in CA or AZ early next week...

 

The reason the NAO and AO are not going drastically negative is because both teleconnections are virtually useless in the summer pattern. The Aleutian and Icelandic lows are very weak in the summer, so I personally do not use the oscillations from middle May until late August. They are not very useful in the summer, in my opinion. 

[FoothillsNC]

This is going to be a confusing (almost nightmare ) for major media to discuss. I hate the term Polar Vortex, PV, but it has to be used in general meteorology. I've never used it in July, until now.

Technically, since  the PV is the lowest 5H height field, what is coming up doesn't technically fit the definition. But by laymen's terms and the general public, I personally don't have a problem with anyone using it to describe what 's coming next week. Usually I go by the lower 5H heights to describe and locate the Polar Vortex. It's just that we don't see much of this kind of cool, dry air affect such a huge chunk of the US in July. It was pretty cool June 2012 if I recall during a strong blast before a major heat wave hit).

 

You can see on the 5h Maps  the lowest heights will still be in northern Alaska and Siberia, somewhere within the Arctic Circle. That is to be expected though, as I have never seen lower heights drop anywhere outside that region during Summer.  By contrast, it happens a lot in Winter though, and we find the lowest heights and PV right around Hudson Bay or Baffin Island, and again a separate PV in Siberia somewhere. That's just a general upper level low, around which all the jetstream swirls, driving airmasses around the Northern Hemisphere. Because we're in Summer, It would be just unbelievably hard to have lower heights on a widespread scale to exist outside the North Pole Region. 

 

 

 

compared to actually lowest heights in January 1985.

 

 

So technically this isn't the lowest heights and it's not really, really the PV. But it is a big chunk of it I think, thanks to how the Aleutian Low gets pumped up and retrogrades , develops major west Canada ridge, and downstream trough. It just so happens it occurs in Summer, right here at the warmest time of year for most of the country.A very amped up flow in the jet, so that's pretty unusual to this degree in the heart of Summer.  So that's why it will be newsworthy I think. Temps in the 70s under full sunshine in the Lakes Midwest and parts of the Plains. Lows in upper 40s to mid 50s over hundreds of miles from the western Plains to the eastern sides of the Apps at one point. Even some 40's likely, possibly even the Ozarks of Arkansas, northeast OK region and again in the Apps going into the upper 40's, with record lows and record low "maximums" all over TN Valley I think at some point. Simply because of the time of Year. Having a trough of this depth squarely in the climo hottest time of year is just perfect timing I think, to make it record breaking.   This certainly fits with the pattern we saw a lot last late October, on through the Winter and early Spring. It has a lot to do with the SST anomalies and how they have switched from the previous 2 years. Who knows it they look like they do now, come the Winter time. If so, there will be some happy folks I bet combined with the likelihood of a (moderate or so) Nino.

This makes the second or third time this Summer a pretty strong cool outbreak occurred, this time I think the Lakes to TN Valley and eastern Plains are going to feel the full effects a little more strongly than what recently occurred.

 

 

[Snowless in Carrollton]

I just don't see why people are making such a big deal about this. 5-10 degrees below normal in most areas is not a big deal is it ? Maybe areas further north will be more than 10 degrees below normal, but here in Georgia i don't see it as being a huge deal. Average low is about 68, we'll have lows in the low 60s, maybe upper 50s. That's only 5-10 degrees below normal. No biggie. It's no bigger of a deal than having temps running 5-10 above normal and having highs near 100.

[machetemoonlight]

5-10 degrees below in summer is not equivalent to 5-10 degrees below in winter in the SE United States.. can't really explain why, but smarter people probably can. 

[FallsLake]

A cool spell in July would be very welcomed. It would be great to be able to open windows for a few days.

 

The 0z and the 6z(not complete) GFS still show the trough...

 

Wx Jordan - Thanks for the write-up

 

FoothillsNC(Robert) - Thanks for your write-up and for stepping in.

 

**boring time of year; this gives us something to track

[buckeyefan1]

This is going to be a confusing (almost nightmare ) for major media to discuss. I hate the term Polar Vortex, PV, but it has to be used in general meteorology. I've never used it in July, until now.

Technically, since  the PV is the lowest 5H height field, what is coming up doesn't technically fit the definition. But by laymen's terms and the general public, I personally don't have a problem with anyone using it to describe what 's coming next week. Usually I go by the lower 5H heights to describe and locate the Polar Vortex. It's just that we don't see much of this kind of cool, dry air affect such a huge chunk of the US in July. It was pretty cool June 2012 if I recall during a strong blast before a major heat wave hit).

 

You can see on the 5h Maps  the lowest heights will still be in northern Alaska and Siberia, somewhere within the Arctic Circle. That is to be expected though, as I have never seen lower heights drop anywhere outside that region during Summer.  By contrast, it happens a lot in Winter though, and we find the lowest heights and PV right around Hudson Bay or Baffin Island, and again a separate PV in Siberia somewhere. That's just a general upper level low, around which all the jetstream swirls, driving airmasses around the Northern Hemisphere. Because we're in Summer, It would be just unbelievably hard to have lower heights on a widespread scale to exist outside the North Pole Region. 

 

now1.gif

 

now2.gif

 

compared to actually lowest heights in January 1985.

January1985.jpg

 

 

So technically this isn't the lowest heights and it's not really, really the PV. But it is a big chunk of it I think, thanks to how the Aleutian Low gets pumped up and retrogrades , develops major west Canada ridge, and downstream trough. It just so happens it occurs in Summer, right here at the warmest time of year for most of the country.A very amped up flow in the jet, so that's pretty unusual to this degree in the heart of Summer.  So that's why it will be newsworthy I think. Temps in the 70s under full sunshine in the Lakes Midwest and parts of the Plains. Lows in upper 40s to mid 50s over hundreds of miles from the western Plains to the eastern sides of the Apps at one point. Even some 40's likely, possibly even the Ozarks of Arkansas, northeast OK region and again in the Apps going into the upper 40's, with record lows and record low "maximums" all over TN Valley I think at some point. Simply because of the time of Year. Having a trough of this depth squarely in the climo hottest time of year is just perfect timing I think, to make it record breaking.   This certainly fits with the pattern we saw a lot last late October, on through the Winter and early Spring. It has a lot to do with the SST anomalies and how they have switched from the previous 2 years. Who knows it they look like they do now, come the Winter time. If so, there will be some happy folks I bet combined with the likelihood of a (moderate or so) Nino.

This makes the second or third time this Summer a pretty strong cool outbreak occurred, this time I think the Lakes to TN Valley and eastern Plains are going to feel the full effects a little more strongly than what recently occurred.

Robert!   I hope to hear you talk about the first bolded a lot this winter, just make sure that trough is positioned perfectly to shut down the portals  

To the second bolded....I'm not sold on anything more than a slight Nino at the moment, if it even happens at all   It's like flashbacks of last year.....we keep waiting and waiting and waiting  

[griteater]

5-10 degrees below in summer is not equivalent to 5-10 degrees below in winter in the SE United States.

 

Exactly, it's just not possible in the summer for temps to vary as much from normals like it is in winter.  At least we are talking about troughs rather than death ridges.

 

GSP has a good write-up about possible severe weather and cool-down...

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...AS OF 230 AM FRI...A DISTINCT UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CHANGE IS FORECASTTO OCCUR IN THE EARLY TO MID WEEK PERIOD ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OFTHE NATION AS A DEEP UPPER LOW SWINGS SOUTH OUT OF NORTHERN CANADAAND ESTABLISHES AN ANOMALOUS UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST BY MIDWEEK.AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES SE AND HEIGHTS FALL...A SURFACE COLD FRONTWILL BE DRIVEN SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SAT NIGHT...THENACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE INGOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA DURINGTHE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING TIME PERIOD. THE FRONT WILL BEWELL FORCED FOR JULY AND CAPES SHOULD POOL AHEAD OF THE FRONT TOPERHAPS 2000J/KG...SO THERE IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY OF ANORGANIZED SEVERE STORM EVENT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WIND SHEARWILL BE RATHER GOOD FOR JULY WITH GFS 925MB 5 TO 15KTS FROM SW TO WLATE TUES AND 25 TO 30KTS AT 700MB FROM A GENERAL WEST DIRECTION.THE FRONT MAY NOT CLEAR THE AREA COMPLETELY ON WED SO SOME LINGERINGSHOWERS MAY OCCUR PRIMARILY FROM NE GA TO THE CLT AREA. THE BIGSTORY BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE THE COOLING. TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BEAT LEAST 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW AVERAGE WED AND THU. THEPREVIOUS VERY COOL CONSRAW GUIDANCE FOR WED HAD MAX TEMPS IN THE 70SEVEN OVER PARTS OF THE PIEDMONT...BUT NOW HAS 80 TO 82 FOR THATREGION.  WE WILL NOT BE GOING THAT COOL YET...BUT THE POTENTIAL ISTHERE FOR EVEN COOLER THAN THE CURRENTLY FORECAST TEMPS. THEANOMALOUSLY COOL WEATHER WILL BE EVEN MORE PRONOUNCED TO THE NORTH.THIS UPPER LOW WILL LIFT OUT TO THE NE FROM THE GREAT LAKES ONTHURSDAY TO LOCATIONS OVER EASTERN CANADA AT WEEKS END. 500MBPATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL WEST TO EAST AT THE END OF THE WEEK WITHMODERATING TEMPS. TO SUMMARIZE...MONDAY SHOULD BE A TYPICAL JULY DAYWITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH TEMPSA COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO NORMS. THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY SEVEREARE A GOOD BET FOR TUE WITH THE COLD FRONT. MUCH COOLER WEATHER ISEXPECTED WED AND THU WITH SOME LINGERING LOW SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERSPOSSIBLE ON THU.

[Solak]

Meanwhile, the 7 straight days with a chance of rain in the forecast has now changed to no chances for the next 3 around here. Need a little break after yesterday, anyways.

[Cold Rain]

I think the traditional wintertime assumptions would still apply here:  The trough will likely end up not being as deep or strong as it looks a week out.  Highs in the 80s, probably mid-80s in the Piedmont seem like a reasonable forecast.  It should feel nice.

 

And regarding Solak's comment, that's been the way it's gone down all summer so far.  Modeling, especially the GFS, continuously shows rain chances for days on end, but then all of a sudden, it dries up.  Not to go all Brickbot, but our shower/thunderstorm forecasting technology is not very good.

[griteater]

One of 2 scenarios maybe.  Either the cold front plows through with some front end storms, and we cool down with lower humidities...or the front doesn't make it as far south and gets hung up with an increased period of rain/storm chances, and moderate temps.  But in either case, no big heat ridge in the heart of big heat ridge climo

[metalicwx366]

I think the traditional wintertime assumptions would still apply here: The trough will likely end up not being as deep or strong as it looks a week out. Highs in the 80s, probably mid-80s in the Piedmont seem like a reasonable forecast. It should feel nice.

And regarding Solak's comment, that's been the way it's gone down all summer so far. Modeling, especially the GFS, continuously shows rain chances for days on end, but then all of a sudden, it dries up. Not to go all Brickbot, but our shower/thunderstorm forecasting technology is not very good.

Lol, told you if the GFS was showing it, then it will probably end up dry. How much rain did you get yesterday? It looked like Raleigh picked up a couple of inches.

[Cold Rain]

Lol, told you if the GFS was showing it, then it will probably end up dry. How much rain did you get yesterday? It looked like Raleigh picked up a couple of inches.

Haha, yup. We got around 1.5", I guess.

[Marion_NC_WX]

Gotta keep an eye on these highly amplified troughs in the summer especially once they start to lift...a lot of times you get energy left behind as everything else departs...this afternoon's GFS hinted at that as it was developing a 500mb low across the Ohio/TN Valley region next weekend. What starts as a strong frontal passage and airmass change could be short lived...

 

 

 

 

 

[Met1985]

Good stuff Marion. The next couple of weeks should be interesting.

[Hvward]

Gotta keep an eye on these highly amplified troughs in the summer especially once they start to lift...a lot of times you get energy left behind as everything else departs...this afternoon's GFS hinted at that as it was developing a 500mb low across the Ohio/TN Valley region next weekend. What starts as a strong frontal passage and airmass change could be short lived...

 

120.png

 

 

144.png

 

 

168.png

 

Nice Marion, Foothills, Jordan and everyone else for the info.  This is a great lesson for me since I am taking Climatology for a summer class and this goes against most ideas.  Neat to see that Lee side low that is modeled to develop drawn in on the map.  The Rockies play a huge part in all this which is pretty cool to me.  With that lagging jet shown do you guys or anyone else think that we will see parts of Dixie Alley fire up with tornadic supercells?  I know we will have to wait for the high res models 2-3 days out to really know, but climatologically speaking it would seem that if southerly flow existed at the surface with SW winds in the 700 mb, then there could be problems. Nonetheless, this will be fun to watch due to the rarity of the occurrence. 

[Lookout]

Speaking of amplified, check out the gfs forecast temps for siberia in the coming days. I know parts of siberia can reach 90 (one town holds the greatest temperature difference between winter and summer in the world) but the gfs shows temps into the 100s and 90 degree temps making it all the way to  the arctic coast! In fact, it shows temps possibly hitting 100 there on one day. And check out those 850s. Just look at the shear amount of real estate  850s at and over 20c cover at point. It's incredible as you can see with the first map.  Then the gfs shows 850s of 20 to 22cc end up making it as far north as the arctic ocean. Keep in mind that only during the bigger heat waves to we ever see 850s that high. 

 

This is from the 06z run. Hot 850s at it's largest. Even after adjusting for latitude,  850s  of 20c cover an area almost or about the size of the US. And look at how large an area the 22 to 24c temps cover.Just imagine this covering north america instead and you really get a grasp of just how huge and hot it is. That huge trough to the west is nothing to sneeze at either.

 

Euro isn't as extreme though and this is still a ways off so it might change over course..but it would be something if this verified.  It's about as extreme example of amplification as you will ever see.

 

20 to 22c 850s making it into the arctic ocean.

 

 

 

Those along the arctic coast might drop like flies with temps like this lol

 

[FallsLake]

Speaking of amplified, check out the gfs forecast temps for siberia in the coming days. I know parts of siberia can reach 90 (one town holds the greatest temperature difference between winter and summer in the world) but the gfs shows temps into the 100s and 90 degree temps making it all the way to  the arctic coast! In fact, it shows temps possibly hitting 100 there on one day. And check out those 850s. Just look at the shear amount of real estate  850s at and over 20c cover at point. It's incredible as you can see with the first map.  Then the gfs shows 850s of 20 to 22cc end up making it as far north as the arctic ocean. Keep in mind that only during the bigger heat waves to we ever see 850s that high. 

 

This is from the 06z run. Hot 850s at it's largest. Even after adjusting for latitude,  850s  of 20c cover an area almost or about the size of the US. And look at how large an area the 22 to 24c temps cover.Just imagine this covering north america instead and you really get a grasp of just how huge and hot it is. That huge trough to the west is nothing to sneeze at either.

 

Euro isn't as extreme though and this is still a ways off so it might change over course..but it would be something if this verified.  It's about as extreme example of amplification as you will ever see.

 

20 to 22c 850s making it into the arctic ocean.

 

 

 

Those along the arctic coast might drop like flies with temps like this lol

 

Don't let Friv in the Climate forum see this. I suppose as long as it does not push deep into the Arctic ocean it won't impact the ice much. Currently the talk over there is for normal to below normal temps for a good part of this month.

[WxJordan]

Gotta keep an eye on these highly amplified troughs in the summer especially once they start to lift...a lot of times you get energy left behind as everything else departs...this afternoon's GFS hinted at that as it was developing a 500mb low across the Ohio/TN Valley region next weekend. What starts as a strong frontal passage and airmass change could be short lived...

 

Good call Marion, the GFS and EURO is trending this way. This could help to bring beneficial rains to the southeast United States at the end of the week. We need a few model runs to see if this trend holds, but a very very good pick-up Marion.

[Hvward]

12z GFS is showing a CAD type setup for next Friday.  Correct me if I am wrong, but I don't think cold air damming is very common in the Southeast during the summer.  Looks to be overcast with showers driven by a Hatteras Low developing off the NC/SC coast eventually.  It will be interesting to see if this holds on future runs.

 

[mackerel_sky]

12z GFS is showing a CAD type setup for next Friday. Correct me if I am wrong, but I don't think cold air damming is very common in the Southeast during the summer. Looks to be overcast with showers driven by a Hatteras Low developing off the NC/SC coast eventually. It will be interesting to see if this holds on future runs.

They are not that unusual. There are usually atleast 4 or 5 good CAD events during the summer months. I have not been able to correlate the number of summer events to the number and strength of winter CAD events, but they are a welcome relief, especially if its a " wet" wedge, that brings lots of showers and drizzle

[griteater]

12z GFS is showing a CAD type setup for next Friday.  Correct me if I am wrong, but I don't think cold air damming is very common in the Southeast during the summer.  Looks to be overcast with showers driven by a Hatteras Low developing off the NC/SC coast eventually.  It will be interesting to see if this holds on future runs.

 

This is from a ppt presentation that RaleighWx use to have on his website...

 

[superjames1992]

It is interesting how much less CAD we see on average in July compared to every single other month.

[mackerel_sky]

You know there's a polar vortex coming when you see a Superjames siting! Welcome to the summer model watching ! Lol , you going to be up to do the Euro pbp?

[GaWx]

This is from a ppt presentation that RaleighWx use to have on his website...

 

 

 

 The incredible winter of 2013-14 was the winter of the CAD event. It was in stark contrast to recent winters with a lack of them. The CAD events appeared over and over in 2013-4. We were spoiled. I wonder how long it will be before we have another like it.

[Snowless in Carrollton]

The incredible winter of 2013-14 was the winter of the CAD event. It was in stark contrast to recent winters with a lack of them. The CAD events appeared over and over in 2013-4. We were spoiled. I wonder how long it will be before we have another like it.

I wonder how crappy winters in the Carolina's would be without cad ? Living so far west, my area usually doesn't feel the impact of cad so it doesn't have much impact on weather here.

[mackerel_sky]

The incredible winter of 2013-14 was the winter of the CAD event. It was in stark contrast to recent winters with a lack of them. The CAD events appeared over and over in 2013-4. We were spoiled. I wonder how long it will be before we have another like it.

You only have to wait 5-6 months! The CAD will be strong this winter, I believe! Based on no scientific evidence, but patterns tend to repeat, so having a few during this summer will lead to a few good ones this winter!

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

You only have to wait 5-6 months! The CAD will be strong this winter, I believe! Based on no scientific evidence, but patterns tend to repeat, so having a few during this summer will lead to a few good ones this winter!

 

Somebody call my name?.....Seriously, after last winter's show, I think we are returning to a period with more typical winter weather patterns. Early signs are pointing to another winter with some cold outbreaks and more CAD events.

[griteater]

GSP Discussion...

A BROAD TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE ERN
TWO THIRDS OF THE CONUS ON WED AS A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
FROM THE GREAT LAKES WED TO EASTERN CANADA AT THE END OF THE WEEK.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FARTHER EAST AND SOUTH OF OUR AREA WED AND
STALL OUT REMAINING IN SOME WEST TO EAST FASHION OVER THE SE STATES
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PASSING FROM THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WED TO THE OHIO VALLEY THURS SHOULD KEEP
OUR REGION MOSTLY DRY. LOW LEVEL WIND WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WED
AND BECOME MORE EASTERLY THURS INTO FRI AS THE HIGH REACHES NY STATE
EARLY FRI. THIS MAY CREATE A WEAK COLD AIR DAMNING EPISODE TO
REINFORCE THE COOL AIR FROM THE GRADUALLY DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH.
THE EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL HELP INCREASE CLOUDS ALONG THE BLUE
RIDGE PARTICULARLY IN NC. RH VALUES WILL BE GRADUALLY INCREASING
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WHICH SHOULD REACH OUR AREA FRI
THEN ANOTHER POSSIBLY WEAKER WAVE ON SATURDAY. YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
CROSSING THE NATION TO REACH OUR REGION AT THE START OF NEXT WEEK
WHICH IS AFTER THE CURRENT FORECAST. THUS...AN ACTIVE PERIOD FOR
WEATHER ALTHOUGH NO OBVIOUS SEVERE WEATHER INDICATORS AT THIS TIME.
INSTABILITY SHOULD BE RATHER LOW ACCORDING TO THE CURRENT MODEL
DATA. TEMPERATURES OF COURSE WILL BE FROM 8 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

 

I wonder how crappy winters in the Carolina's would be without cad ? Living so far west, my area usually doesn't feel the impact of cad so it doesn't have much impact on weather here.

We would not have as much wintry precip in the foothills and piedmont, for sure.

[Jon]

Looks like we'll recycle the WC ridge EC trough later this month, around July 23rd-?, per the Euro OP last few runs hinting at pattern reload, has support LR with ensembles....GFS op also showing it FWIW...not likely return of PV's bastard cousin but it could be, who knows. All I know is cooler temps for us given placement of trough likely which is, cool. Verbatim, highs in Mid to upper 70s for Carolina. Lows mid 50's, low 60s I'm guessing all depends on placement.

 

Euro OP 500mb height anomalies

 

Euro Control

 

Long Range 5-day mean

 

GFS OP