mackerel_sky Posted June 29, 2014 Share Posted June 29, 2014 According to Wxsouth, next Friday July 4th, looks to be luscious , with a deep trough over the East and some of the South! Nice "cool" down coming! Check it out at wxsouth.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCsandhills Posted June 29, 2014 Share Posted June 29, 2014 Highest temp TWC 10 day is only 95. I am sated. Today was 90, tomorrow 94. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted June 29, 2014 Share Posted June 29, 2014 Looks like an extended period of dry and hot weather for central and eastern NC. Western piedmont and the usual sea breeze area south and east will be the favored spots for rain. For the rest of us in the middle, more rainless days are on tap...at least until a cold front swings through later in the week, keeping both the best energy to the north and the tropical system off the coast, leading to, well, more dryness. Oh well.... :Shrug: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparklecity Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 00z GFS has now completely backed off any wetness coming up. Was showing 2+ inches just a day or 2 ago consistently, but now keeps getting less and less with only 0.47" for KGSP thru 180. 84 hour NAM has been more accurate than the GFS this summer for mby! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 In other news... Friday night looks to be very nice for a large part of the SE (for any firework shows). RAH has a low in the low 60s for my area with the GFS showing dew points in the 50s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 595dm Death Ridge incoming with upper 90's and low 100's if the LR GFS is right. and it will be because it shows heat and not snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 RAH still looking for a cool(er) air mass to settle over the region for Friday. Lows Friday night in the 50s for north NC. Amazing for this time of year. <from afternoon discussion> SKIES WILL BE CLEARING RAPIDLY FROM THE WEST WITH LINGERING PRECIPIN THE NORTHEAST TAPERING OFF BY AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY. AS HIGHPRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE MIDWEST...THE WELCOME CHANGE OF AIRMASSWILL FEATURE NORTHERLY FLOW WHICH WILL BE COOLER AND DRIER...WITHHIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID 80S. DEW POINTS WILL BE FALLING INTO THE50S...ALLOWING MINS ON FRIDAY NIGHT TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S NORTHTO LOWER 60S SOUTH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 RAH still looking for a cool(er) air mass to settle over the region for Friday. Lows Friday night in the 50s for north NC. Amazing for this time of year. Yeah, quite the nice air mass settling in as Arthur departs...seemingly rare for the 4th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Speaking of RAH, what a lame near-term discussion, given such a strong trough and an incoming tropical system. On the other hand, the actual weather will probably turn out pretty lame around here, as it usually does lately: .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...AS OF 230 PM WEDNESDAY...SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS EVENING WILL DIMINISH...ESPECIALLY IN THEEAST...WITH THE LOSS OF INSOLATION. SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL BEPOSSIBLE IN THE WEST OVERNIGHT AS PERTURBATIONS CONTINUE TO ROTATEAROUND THE UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE. THE CHANCE OF PRECIP IN THE WESTWILL INCREASE AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON AND AN UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATEDFRONT ROTATES EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO WESTERN NORTHCAROLINA AFTER MIDNIGHT. MINS WILL BE MILD IN THE MOIST AIRMASS...INTHE LOWER 70S.IN THE MEANTIME...TS ARTHUR WILL BE RECURVING AND PARALLELING THECOAST...ARRIVING OFF THE SOUTHERN NC COAST THURSDAY EVENING...WHEREIT WILL MERGE WITH THE FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE STATE AND ACCELERATENORTHEAST...PASSING JUST EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.INITIAL SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE FOCUSED ON THE FRONT INWESTERN NORTH CAROLINA ON THURSDAY MORNING...WITH CONVECTIVE BANDSFROM TS ARTHUR SPREADING INTO THE SOUTHEAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON. ASSUCH...WILL BE INCREASING THE INITIAL CHANCE POPS EARLY IN THE WESTTO LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON...CONCURRENT WITH INTRODUCTION OF 50-60PERCENT POPS IN THE EAST. HIGHS WILL BE TEMPERED A BIT BY HEAVIERCLOUD COVERAGE AND RAIN...BUT HIGHS WILL REACH 90 GIVEN ANY SUN ATALL DURING THE AFTERNOON.THE FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY...MERGING WITHARTHUR THURSDAY NIGHT. ARTHUR WILL THEN ACCELERATE NORTHEAST AS ITIS PICKED UP BY THE UPPER TROF. AS SUCH...LIKELY PROBABILITIES OFPRECIP WILL BE FOCUSED EAST OF I-95 OVERNIGHT...WITH POPS IN THEWEST TAPERING OFF TO SLIGHT CHANCE BY MORNING. BEHIND THE SURFACEFRONT...INITIAL DRYING IN THE NORTHWEST WILL ALLOW MINS TO FALL TOTHE MID 60S...WHILE THE EAST WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 70S.SKIES WILL BE CLEARING RAPIDLY FROM THE WEST WITH LINGERING PRECIPIN THE NORTHEAST TAPERING OFF BY AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY. AS HIGHPRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE MIDWEST...THE WELCOME CHANGE OF AIRMASSWILL FEATURE NORTHERLY FLOW WHICH WILL BE COOLER AND DRIER...WITHHIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID 80S. DEW POINTS WILL BE FALLING INTO THE50S...ALLOWING MINS ON FRIDAY NIGHT TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S NORTHTO LOWER 60S SOUTH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Where is this strong front with all the convection that was suppose to be here today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Where is this strong front with all the convection that was suppose to be here today? Let me introduce you to subsidence thanks to Arthur Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Let me introduce you to subsidence thanks to Arthur Got the headline. ARTHUR LASHES NC WITH WIDESPREAD SUBSIDENCE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Got the headline. ARTHUR LASHES NC AND SC WITH WIDESPREAD SUBSIDENCE fyp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 :lmao: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 And still nothing as of 11:30 PM AS OF 912 PM WEDNESDAY...00Z GSO SOUNDING A LITTLE CONCERNING THIS EVENING...DEPICTING DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR/EVENING (JUST SHY OF 7 DEG C/KM). LATEST SPC MESO ANALYSIS STILL DEPICTS A NARROW AXIS OF MODERATE-STRONG INSTABILITY OVER THE YADKIN RIVER VALLEY WITH MLCAPE VALUES 2500-3000 J/KG AND DOWNDRAFT CAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG. FINALLY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITH SUPPORT FROM THE HRRR SUGGEST A MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS LIFTING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT OVERNIGHT...GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING AS IT DOES. THUS...EXPECT TO SEE AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THROUGH MIDNIGHT OVER THE NW PIEDMONT INCLUDING THE TRIAD REGION. THE STRONGER STORMS WILL PRODUCE WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MILES. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM WITH WIND GUST NEAR 60 MPH OVER OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES THROUGH MIDNIGHT. OVERNIGHT...EXPECT SCATTERED CONVECTION TO PERSIST BUT SHOULD BE OF LESS INTENSITY AS LOW LEVEL AIR MASS STABILIZES THANKS TO NOCTURNAL COOLING. MIN TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 70-75 DEGREE RANGE. -WSS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxJordan Posted July 7, 2014 Share Posted July 7, 2014 Ok, I have a new personal goals since I now have a new job which means more time for me to keep my website updated. My goals are to post at least three articles to the website weekly and post more information on AmericanWx. So, here is what I see for this upcoming week.... 1. Convection off the southeast coast will move near the North/South Carolina boarder. The NHC gives this area a 10% chance of development over the next 48 hours, and I do not expect this storm to develop before moving northward. A few showers and storms are possible in far eastern zones of NC on Monday, but I am not expecting widespread rain. 2. Heat will be on the increase, with temperatures climbing into the 90s to near 100 outside the mountains Tuesday and Wednesday. It will be hot once again the southeast. (Ole boy, that means the grass will continue to get drier). 3. A front will bring a good chance of rain for the second half of the work week. The best chance will be on Thursday across most areas of NC, SC, and GA. I expect a 40-50% chance for most areas west of I-95, and even areas east of I-95 I am expecting a 30-40% chance of storms. I am hoping to receive some rain soon, as many areas have not received substantial rain outside the mountains and coastal plain. Over the weekend, the GFS has a trough pattern over the eastern seaboard, which may help to fuel an MCS. Other than that, normal summertime weather in the southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted July 9, 2014 Share Posted July 9, 2014 Hope some of that rain finds me! But I'm not holding my breath. The drought is back in full swing here. I've had less than an inch over the last 5, and maybe 6 weeks. I've had neighbors a few tenths of a mile away get inches while I got drops. Need something wide spread, and not just this danged heat with showers working hard to miss me. I'm looking forward to the fall dry months when I might actually see some rain T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted July 9, 2014 Share Posted July 9, 2014 Hope some of that rain finds me! But I'm not holding my breath. The drought is back in full swing here. I've had less than an inch over the last 5, and maybe 6 weeks. I've had neighbors a few tenths of a mile away get inches while I got drops. Need something wide spread, and not just this danged heat with showers working hard to miss me. I'm looking forward to the fall dry months when I might actually see some rain T A tropical storm coming north out of the gulf would sure be nice right about now. A widespread 3-6" soaker is what we need. Which reminds me.... This month is the 20 year anniversary of TS Alberto. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted July 9, 2014 Share Posted July 9, 2014 A tropical storm coming north out of the gulf would sure be nice right about now. A widespread 3-6" soaker is what we need. Which reminds me.... This month is the 20 year anniversary of TS Alberto. This year is also the 126th anniversary of TS Eliot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted July 9, 2014 Share Posted July 9, 2014 The lemon from a couple days ago went "poof".. and not much of a chance on the horizon like Arthur. I agree about needing some kind of disturbance that can really produce for a lot of the Southeast though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted July 9, 2014 Share Posted July 9, 2014 This year is also the 126th anniversary of TS Eliot.Didnt they only use womens names back when you witnessed this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted July 9, 2014 Share Posted July 9, 2014 Looks wet the next two days, hopefully? If quick math serves, this is the 25th anniversary of Hugo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted July 9, 2014 Share Posted July 9, 2014 Looks wet the next two days, hopefully? If quick math serves, this is the 25th anniversary of Hugo. Nope That would be Sept 21/22 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted July 9, 2014 Share Posted July 9, 2014 The tempaerature was 84 degrees at 8:00 this morning. It's going to be a hot one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted July 9, 2014 Share Posted July 9, 2014 Nope That would be Sept 21/22 Looks wet the next two days, hopefully? If quick math serves, this is the 25th anniversary of Hugo. Ooooo! Quick math fail! Haha! On another note, it looks like a decent pattern setting in Sundayish on, which would provide more opportunities for daily t-storms. Also, looks not as hot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted July 9, 2014 Share Posted July 9, 2014 Nope That would be Sept 21/22 Sorry, I just meant this year in general! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted July 9, 2014 Share Posted July 9, 2014 Sorry, I just meant this year in general! Oops! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted July 9, 2014 Share Posted July 9, 2014 Sorry, I just meant this year in general! Quick math unfail! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted July 9, 2014 Share Posted July 9, 2014 Quick math unfail!Yep, that 3 years of geometry really paid off! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted July 9, 2014 Share Posted July 9, 2014 Yep, that 3 years of geometry really paid off! NIce! It helped me too. I had to cosign a document this morning to help me angle for a promotion. On another note, if anyone has a midsummer night's dream of winter, here's something to read: http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/2014/06/preliminary-2014-2015-winter-forecast.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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