mackerel_sky Posted August 22, 2014 Share Posted August 22, 2014 Looks like the track of our invest is very much up in the air still. Alot of runs yesterday were showing recurve, today not so much! I don't want the damage and destruction that it could bring to Florida , possibly, but I am interested to see if it crosses FL, where does it go from there? Is there anything that could bring it up into the SE, IF, IF, it gets into the gulf? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted August 22, 2014 Share Posted August 22, 2014 Looks like the tropical system has sped up and that is going to really effect track forecasts. New 18z GFS makes landfall close to Miami as a TS. Reminds me of how the models handled Arthur but that about the only thing similar between the two storms. Have seen the track compared to a Hurricane that occurred in 1899. Very interesting and something for all us weather geeks to watch over the weekend. ETA: 18z GFS also gets very interesting off the NC coast next Friday. 18z HWRF shifted westward, but it's still not touching Florida. Rather, it'll stay off coast of that state and heads for North Carolina as a major hurricane. As we saw with Arthur, Gulf Stream region is very favorable for hurricanes which is what HWRF is suggesting. Blocking could be there to force the storm into SE USA somewhere between Miami and OBX, but path isn't fully in stone yet with GFS ensemble still mostly OTS. We'll see how 96L do with Hispaniola. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 22, 2014 Share Posted August 22, 2014 Yeah just enough model support to get my eyebrows into the raised position concerning 96L but as seems typical with east coast threats the setup is super messy so any number of things could happen... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted August 23, 2014 Share Posted August 23, 2014 Yeah just enough model support to get my eyebrows into the raised position concerning 96L but as seems typical with east coast threats the setup is super messy so any number of things could happen... Agree with you. I can't recall a time when models flip-flopping is this extreme... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted August 23, 2014 Share Posted August 23, 2014 Agree with you. I can't recall a time when models flip-flopping is this extreme...Yes you can. Debby 2012 was a mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted August 23, 2014 Share Posted August 23, 2014 Yes you can. Debby 2012 was a mess. Thankfully I didn't track that one as I was on vacation at that time I heard it was pretty bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted August 23, 2014 Share Posted August 23, 2014 Thankfully I didn't track that one as I was on vacation at that time I heard it was pretty bad. http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-t8RLUXtySik/T-ZER6Bko8I/AAAAAAAAJKU/OcFJeXg1JD4/s1600/invest_models.png :lmao: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted August 25, 2014 Share Posted August 25, 2014 I can't remember a Summer that has consistently had so many 'back door fronts' push so far south as we've had this year. Seems that in years past, most would stall out at the VA/NC border, or occasionally clip the NE corner of NC. Sure has been interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 25, 2014 Share Posted August 25, 2014 I can't remember a Summer that has consistently had so many 'back door fronts' push so far south as we've had this year. Seems that in years past, most would stall out at the VA/NC border, or occasionally clip the NE corner of NC. Sure has been interesting. 2003 as like this only better I think, we fish the north side of the sound a lot and typically its tough due to SW or W winds blowing it up, in 2003 we killed it because all summer it seemed there was a NE or N wind which slicks out the north side making it much easier to fish....sadly I haven't had the time to really get down there but all the rain has made it a tough year in the inner sounds due to all the runoff pushing out and pushing the saltier water out towards the banks so I am not missing much it sounds like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted August 25, 2014 Author Share Posted August 25, 2014 Keep an eye on the Gulf of Mexico folks...our wedge front has made it all the way down there. The models have been hinting at low pressure development the past few runs. Just looking at the model data for this week, another 500mb trough will be sliding through the Midwest mid to late week. This could draw up any potential moisture from the Gulf northward...do not be surprised if you starting seeing forecast changes across parts of the Southeast and Mid South for late this week... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted August 25, 2014 Author Share Posted August 25, 2014 Also...add to the mix there is going to be a nice anticyclone established over the region and very warm SST's. I think the potential is there for a quick (not rapid) intensification that could put some folks off-guard along the Gulf Coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted August 25, 2014 Share Posted August 25, 2014 Maybe that's what the models were showing as Cristobol, and they were confused, but trying to put something in the Gulf? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted August 25, 2014 Share Posted August 25, 2014 Keep an eye on the Gulf of Mexico folks...our wedge front has made it all the way down there. The models have been hinting at low pressure development the past few runs. Just looking at the model data for this week, another 500mb trough will be sliding through the Midwest mid to late week. This could draw up any potential moisture from the Gulf northward...do not be surprised if you starting seeing forecast changes across parts of the Southeast and Mid South for late this week... MondayNoonVis.gif Let's hope not. That would fook up god knows how many beach plans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted August 26, 2014 Share Posted August 26, 2014 I hope they are not right, but TWC is forecasting low to mid 90s in Atlanta the first week of September. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted August 26, 2014 Share Posted August 26, 2014 I hope they are not right, but TWC is forecasting low to mid 90s in Atlanta the first week of September.They can't get tomorrow right! I wouldn't really worry about what they are saying about the first of Sep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I85Greenville Posted August 26, 2014 Share Posted August 26, 2014 Pretty awesome pic of a huge super cell near the border of NC and SC back in May, taken by an ER-2 aircraft at about 65k feet. http://www.livescience.com/47533-supercell-thunderstorms-over-carolinas.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted August 26, 2014 Share Posted August 26, 2014 Pretty awesome pic of a huge super cell near the border of NC and SC back in May, taken by an ER-2 aircraft at about 65k feet. http://www.livescience.com/47533-supercell-thunderstorms-over-carolinas.html After looking at that picture, I'm surprised NC and SC still exist! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted August 26, 2014 Share Posted August 26, 2014 http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-t8RLUXtySik/T-ZER6Bko8I/AAAAAAAAJKU/OcFJeXg1JD4/s1600/invest_models.png :lmao: Ok, that's pretty bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted August 26, 2014 Share Posted August 26, 2014 Pretty awesome pic of a huge super cell near the border of NC and SC back in May, taken by an ER-2 aircraft at about 65k feet. http://www.livescience.com/47533-supercell-thunderstorms-over-carolinas.html That storm did some serious damage in Blythewood and NE Columbia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted August 28, 2014 Share Posted August 28, 2014 Big 3 ensembles appear locked in for cool west, warm east for first half of Sept (in general) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted August 28, 2014 Share Posted August 28, 2014 Big 3 ensembles appear locked in for cool west, warm east for first half of Sept (in general) Wouldn't it be something if September ended up hotter than July ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted August 28, 2014 Share Posted August 28, 2014 Wouldn't it be something if September ended up hotter than July ? Better hot in September than July. Usually hot weather that comes late in the summer or early fall has lower humidity. If it's hot in July it's also humid. This has been a great summer and if we have to pay back with a warmer September, so be it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted August 28, 2014 Share Posted August 28, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted August 28, 2014 Share Posted August 28, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toxictwister00 Posted August 28, 2014 Share Posted August 28, 2014 Doesn't really surprise me, the real autumn cool-downs don't really settle in until October anyway. Hopefully it won't extend into October like it did back in 2010. We were still seeing low to mid 90s around here. Now THAT's a blowtorch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted August 28, 2014 Share Posted August 28, 2014 untitled.pngIt is a dry heat , though! Had a high of 92, humidity was in mid 40s! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted August 29, 2014 Share Posted August 29, 2014 Doesn't really surprise me, the real autumn cool-downs don't really settle in until October anyway. Hopefully it won't extend into October like it did back in 2010. We were still seeing low to mid 90s around here. Now THAT's a blowtorch. Didn't see low to mid 90s in Atlanta in October 2010. Hottest temp in Atlanta in October 2010 was 86. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted August 29, 2014 Share Posted August 29, 2014 Better hot in September than July. Usually hot weather that comes late in the summer or early fall has lower humidity. If it's hot in July it's also humid. This has been a great summer and if we have to pay back with a warmer September, so be it. Well, temps next week are forecast to be near 90 with lows near 70. That sounds pretty humid to me. July weather in September. Gotta love it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toxictwister00 Posted August 29, 2014 Share Posted August 29, 2014 Didn't see low to mid 90s in Atlanta in October 2010. Hottest temp in Atlanta in October 2010 was 86. I checked back at the obs back then. I guess I had the year wrong, but I'm pretty sure I remember an October in recent years where a couple of days got near 90 if not a degree or two above. Then again, tolerating heat every year does things to me. I don't know maybe I'm losing my mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted August 29, 2014 Share Posted August 29, 2014 Well, if it makes anyone feel any better, Accuweather is forecasting temps near 70 and lows in the 40s to near 50 from October 8-10. Of course that's about 40 days away so I'm not sure how accurate that would be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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