Snowless in Carrollton Posted August 20, 2014 Share Posted August 20, 2014 Well I said 60+ DP's and when we hit the mid 90's tomorrow and Friday they should mix out back into the 60's. This is definitely a dirty ridge not the more common massive 594/595 we see in the summer that are associated with heat waves. This imo is still a very mild heat wave, it will be short and has bust potential on the low side imo. Meanwhile the heavens have opened up here, incredible storm in progress. Heck, we may hit mid 90s today. Currently 92. I don't think it would bust on the low side due to the extremely dry ground. Maybe it's a situation where areas that are bone dry get close to 100, while areas where the ground is wetter struggle to hit 95. It's like a desert here while areas not too far away are like a tropical rain forest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted August 20, 2014 Share Posted August 20, 2014 Heck, we may hit mid 90s today. Currently 92. I don't think it would bust on the low side due to the extremely dry ground. Maybe it's a situation where areas that are bone dry get close to 100, while areas where the ground is wetter struggle to hit 95. It's like a desert here while areas not too far away are like a tropical rain forest. Bust for today for sure most locations around FFC didn't hit 90 before the storms rolled in, Also DP's mixed into the mid 60's region wide. Time Sensitive http://forecast.weather.gov/obslocal.php?warnzone=GAZ033&local_place=Atlanta GA&zoneid=EDT&offset=14400 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted August 20, 2014 Share Posted August 20, 2014 Bust for today for sure most locations around FFC didn't hit 90 before the storms rolled in, Time Sensitive http://forecast.weather.gov/obslocal.php?warnzone=GAZ033&local_place=Atlanta GA&zoneid=EDT&offset=14400 I guess the air is too stable here to get any storms. Apparently 92 and humid isn't enough to get storms firing in my backyard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted August 20, 2014 Share Posted August 20, 2014 Well you can tell this is a NC weather board. GA and TN are getting rocked by severe storms and a tornado and it's crickets. Meanwhile NC can hardly muster a shower right now while TN And GA gets pounded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted August 20, 2014 Share Posted August 20, 2014 Well you can tell this is a NC weather board. GA and TN are getting rocked by severe storms and a tornado and it's crickets. Meanwhile NC can hardly muster a shower right now while TN And GA gets pounded. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/44233-augustseptember-2014-pattern-discussion/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted August 20, 2014 Share Posted August 20, 2014 Another cool down for the weekend and early next week: .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...AS OF 145 PM WEDNESDAY...THE INITIAL LONG TERM PERIOD REMAINS CHARACTERIZED BY A BUILDINGUPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH AN UPPERTROUGH/CLOSED LOW OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST...LEAVING CENTRAL NC UNDERNORTHWEST UPPER FLOW INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A BACKDOOR FRONT WILLMOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WHICH WILLPRODUCE OUR BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION DUE TO LOW LEVEL LIFT FROMTHE COOL AIR ADVECTION POTENTIALLY AIDED BY MODEST UPPER LEVELSUPPORT. OUTSIDE OF THE SLIGHTLY INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN THIS EARLYWEEKEND PERIOD... PRECIP CHANCES HINGE ON MESOSCALE DISTURBANCESALOFT WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW...WHICH ARE JUST ABOUT IMPOSSIBLE TOFORECAST THIS FAR IN ADVANCE. AS SUCH...WILL MAINTAIN SMALL CHANCEPOPS THROUGH MONDAY...AFTER WHICH THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EASTENOUGH TO DAMPEN PRECIP CHANCES.HEIGHTS AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES PEAKING FRIDAY ARE INDICATIVE OFHIGHS REACHING THE MID 90S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. THESE HEIGHTS FALLAS THE UPPER TROF DEEPENS ALONG THE EAST COAST CONCURRENT WITH COOLAIR ADVECTION BY LATER SATURDAY IN UNIFORM LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW.HIGHS WILL BE IN TRANSITION SATURDAY...FROM MID 80S NORTH TO 90SOUTH...AND BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S SUNDAY ANDMONDAY AS DAMMING SETTLES DOWN THE EAST COAST. MORNING LOWSINITIALLY IN THE LOWER 70S SATURDAY MORNING WILL GRADUALLY FALL INTOTHE LOW TO MID 60S BY TUESDAY MORNING.THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST ON TUESDAY...WITH DRIER AIR ANDGRADUAL MODIFICATION OF THE AIR MASS IN PLACE. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BEMOSTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S...WARMING TO MOSTLY MID 80S ONWEDNESDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted August 20, 2014 Share Posted August 20, 2014 Jealous of all you east coast folks. Looks like we will have some cooling here, but nothing like you guys. Should "cool" down to near 90 here next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted August 20, 2014 Share Posted August 20, 2014 Jealous of all you east coast folks. Looks like we will have some cooling here, but nothing like you guys. Should "cool" down to near 90 here next week. Within the next month most of us should start seeing "real" cool downs. I can't wait for that that first day (in October) with temps in the 60s, low humidity, dark blue skies, and a chance of frost on the pumpkins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted August 20, 2014 Share Posted August 20, 2014 Within the next month most of us should start seeing "real" cool downs. I can't wait for that that first day (in October) with temps in the 60s, low humidity, dark blue skies, and a chance of frost on the pumpkins. I'm so ready for temps in the 60s and 70s every day with low humidity. I absolutely despise heat and humidity that goes on for days on end. I wish I were rich and retired. I would have a home in the mountains in the summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted August 20, 2014 Share Posted August 20, 2014 Well you can tell this is a NC weather board. GA and TN are getting rocked by severe storms and a tornado and it's crickets. Meanwhile NC can hardly muster a shower right now while TN And GA gets pounded. The whole board is dead now unless there is a hurricane or a chance of snow.I don't know why folks don't like to discuss the severe storms here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted August 20, 2014 Share Posted August 20, 2014 Looks like I am about to get a pretty big storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted August 20, 2014 Share Posted August 20, 2014 We can only hope. It would be nice to get a widespread 5" of rain to end some of this drought. Not for NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted August 20, 2014 Share Posted August 20, 2014 Well you can tell this is a NC weather board. GA and TN are getting rocked by severe storms and a tornado and it's crickets. Meanwhile NC can hardly muster a shower right now while TN And GA gets pounded.I have said this like 90 times in the past. Anyhow, heat advisory for here tomorrow. We have our own microclimate here so we should be under a excessive heat warning because we exceed the heat advisory criteria like everyday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted August 20, 2014 Share Posted August 20, 2014 Same here. I count down the days, hours and minutes to fall every year too. Although I have to say It's not been too bad this year but this coming week will be tough. What I like to do in the summer, especially during heat waves, is follow the weather in the arctic and in the southern hemisphere...or anywhere that is going to be cold. When it's 100 with a 150 degree heat index, it's nice to imagine being in one of those cold spots. Like scotland in the coming days where they are going to have a very cold few days coming up...so cold in fact there could be snow in their higher elevations. Many areas are not expected to get out of the 40s for highs this week. Here's a link about it http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2727734/Wet-cold-bank-holiday-way-forecasters-warn-two-weeks-bad-weather-ahead.html That describes my summer I have said this like 90 times in the past. Anyhow, heat advisory for here tomorrow. We have our own microclimate here so we should be under a excessive heat warning because we exceed the heat advisory criteria like everyday. Are you sure you don't live in Columbia? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted August 21, 2014 Share Posted August 21, 2014 I have said this like 90 times in the past. Anyhow, heat advisory for here tomorrow. We have our own microclimate here so we should be under a excessive heat warning because we exceed the heat advisory criteria like everyday. I think we have our own little microclimate too. We are in a terrible drought while every other area seems to get pounded by rain on a nightly basis. I wouldn't be surprised if I hit 105 this week while other areas struggle to hit 95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted August 21, 2014 Author Share Posted August 21, 2014 We got several interesting things going on... First off... for a good portion of the Carolinas, if you're not baking in the heat and humidity then you are getting hammered by some good thunderstorms. Northwest flow at 500mb looks to be loaded with various s/w's over the next 2-3 days. Also, I think the backdoor front itself could prove very active in the Piedmont and mountains down into Upstate SC by Saturday. After that...all eyes shift to the tropics to see what happens with 96L... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted August 21, 2014 Share Posted August 21, 2014 Looks like we will have to get our rains from afternoon tstorms, because all the models have the invest wave not making it into the gulf and recurving in the Atlantic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted August 21, 2014 Share Posted August 21, 2014 Trying to figure out why there is a heat advisory 15 miles to my west in AL, but not one here. Surely there isn't different criteria ? It's just weird how the heat advisory in ga is so far south but in Al it extends much farther north. I know it's not going to be any hotter 15 miles to my west than it is here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted August 21, 2014 Share Posted August 21, 2014 GA is getting rocked again this afternoon by some storms. It is much more humid than many originally thought therefore the models are busting high with this heat wave. It's a rare event when Atlanta approaches 100 with any meaningful humidity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted August 21, 2014 Share Posted August 21, 2014 HWRF nailed Arthur a couple of days out. Not saying it is going to be right, but this is the12z solution it is spitting out today. It was somewhat of an outlier for Arthur until about a day out when everything started trending its way so we shall see. Nonetheless a 970mb landfall near Miami on Tuesday would be very impactful. Wouldn't be surprised to see this storm clip the Outer Banks also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted August 21, 2014 Share Posted August 21, 2014 Hello old friend, it's been such a long time since I've seen you in the Lower 48. Can you please come pay me a visit you beautiful blue line you. You are so simple yet hold so much significance to us weather nerds. I love you, Mariettawx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted August 22, 2014 Share Posted August 22, 2014 Wonder if the line cutting across the VA/NC state line will hold together or not tonight? HWO seems to indicate it might as is sags Southward. A BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRACK SOUTHWARD FROM VIRGINIA INTO NORTH CAROLINA THIS EVENING...INTO AN ENVIRONMENTINCREASINGLY SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE WEATHER. THE POTENTIAL FORISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE GREATEST ALONG AND NORTH OFHIGHWAY 64 BETWEEN 9 PM AND MIDNIGHT...WITH A PRIMARY THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND PEA TO QUARTER SIZED HAIL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted August 22, 2014 Share Posted August 22, 2014 Laughing, laughing. Fall apart Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted August 22, 2014 Share Posted August 22, 2014 Laughing, laughing. Fall apart If it matters, it looks better for you on Composite than it does on Base Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted August 22, 2014 Share Posted August 22, 2014 Latest tropical system looks to easily recurve, via the Euro, GFS, and Navgem (on which it looks like it barely scrapes the Outer Banks). The CMC shows it heading into the Gulf and striking the AL/LA coast as a pretty strong cane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted August 22, 2014 Share Posted August 22, 2014 Morning all, just a wee bit more soupy down here in the Panhandle vs the Mnts of WNC! Some really hot weather on tap for the weekend down this way. Heat indices of 105°-110° are being forecast. Actual temps from the low 90's to above 100 in store. Having a great time so far though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted August 22, 2014 Share Posted August 22, 2014 Hartsfield only hit 92 yesterday. I can see them getting to 94 today but not much if any higher. That's pretty weak for an August heat wave imo. The Summer without a heat wave continues here in Metro Atlanta. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted August 22, 2014 Share Posted August 22, 2014 Hartsfield only hit 92 yesterday. I can see them getting to 94 today but not much if any higher. That's pretty weak for an August heat wave imo. The Summer without a heat wave continues here in Metro Atlanta. 94 degrees and I bet the dp will be near 70. Brutal, just brutal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoDa-wx Posted August 22, 2014 Share Posted August 22, 2014 Laughing, laughing. Fall apart a phish reference on the weatherboard? love it! Of course as I'm ready to head to Hilton Head in a week, the tropical Atlantic decides to start waking up from it's slumber. that HWFR is interesting but definitely an outlier right now. Hoping for the OTS curve that just about every other model has right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted August 22, 2014 Share Posted August 22, 2014 Looks like the tropical system has sped up and that is going to really effect track forecasts. New 18z GFS makes landfall close to Miami as a TS. Reminds me of how the models handled Arthur but that about the only thing similar between the two storms. Have seen the track compared to a Hurricane that occurred in 1899. Very interesting and something for all us weather geeks to watch over the weekend. ETA: 18z GFS also gets very interesting off the NC coast next Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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