LithiaWx Posted August 16, 2014 Share Posted August 16, 2014 325 AM EDT SAT AUG 16 2014 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY... AS A FRONTAL ZONE SITS STALLED NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA VIRGINIA BORDER. THIS FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH TONIGHT... USHERING IN HOTTER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. Yeah, it's definitely going to start out warmer and more humid than it has been. Low/mid 90s with 60 plus DPs on the GFS That said if we start approaching 100 in Atlanta it is almost always a low humidity event with light west/nw winds. I have seen the GFS show this a few times over the last couple of days. Reality remains to be seen as we approach the middle of next week IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted August 17, 2014 Share Posted August 17, 2014 Where is everybody at? Tomorrow looks to bring some sort of rain to most of the cool people in the Carolinas, the ones west and south of Raleigh!! Alot of clouds tomorrow will steifle the heat.and the looming heat ridge of death, does not look like it will materialize and trough is back for the end of week/weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted August 17, 2014 Share Posted August 17, 2014 Where is everybody at? Tomorrow looks to bring some sort of rain to most of the cool people in the Carolinas, the ones west and south of Raleigh!! Alot of clouds tomorrow will steifle the heat.and the looming heat ridge of death, does not look like it will materialize and trough is back for the end of week/weekend Looks like it'll materialize for the rest of the Southeast, which should expect widespread temps of 95-100. Thursday: Friday: Saturday: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted August 17, 2014 Share Posted August 17, 2014 The thing is, last week this heat wave was being touted by a few gloom and doomers as widespread , long duration heat wave withs 100 degree temps , now it's just your run of the mill 3 or 4 day heat wave with 95+ degree temps. I've had three or four stretches of heat like this already, so just typical mid-late August heat looks to be all we get, if Waycross hits 100, nobody really cares Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted August 17, 2014 Share Posted August 17, 2014 Unique, high resolution, 1-minute resolution satellite data will be available across the Carolinas & the Virginias today & Monday as GOES-14 will be in Super Rapid Scan Operations (SRSO). http://goo.gl/ESBF4b Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted August 17, 2014 Share Posted August 17, 2014 GOES-14 Super Rapid Scan Operations for GOES-R (SRSOR) began on 14 August and will continue for through 28 August. Super Rapid Scan Operations (SRSO) will provide 1-minute imagery to support multiple research and GOES-R/S user readiness activities. The SRSO domain is usually selected a day or two in advance. The domain schedule along with selected imagery from prior days is available at: http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/srsor2014/GOES-14_SRSOR.html#sched_and_movies Regional partners were able to have the SRSO domain centered such that it will include portions of the Carolina’s and Virginia’s today and with an even more favorable location on Monday. This will be a great opportunity to view the data over our region. For the first time, forecasters at WFO Charleston, SC and Raleigh, NC will have access to some of this data in real-time in AWIPS. Imagery including visible, infrared, and water vapor is available on the web at the links below… http://cimmse.wordpress.com/2014/08/17/goes-14-will-be-in-super-rapid-scan-operations-with-imagery-over-the-carolinas-and-virginias-available-today-and-monday/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted August 17, 2014 Share Posted August 17, 2014 Looks like it'll materialize for the rest of the Southeast, which should expect widespread temps of 95-100. Thursday: Friday: Saturday: I am not looking forward to that these next few days Note to self......keep looking forward to the death ridge moving back to the west and a beautiful trough over the entire east coast that is teasing me in the long range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted August 17, 2014 Share Posted August 17, 2014 Nice intense heat wave coming. My forecast temps are 100 Wednesday, 100 Thursday, 102 Friday, 101 Saturday. Lows will be in the upper 70s and possibly lower 80s. NWS is always late to the game when it comes to forecasting highs and they are always way too low. The temps above are from TWC and they are even too low when it comes to Waycross highs. We hit 102 earlier this year with only a forecast of 99 and was also the first 100 since 2011. This isn't a dry heat either. Heat index will probably be near 120. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted August 18, 2014 Share Posted August 18, 2014 Nice intense heat wave coming. My forecast temps are 100 Wednesday, 100 Thursday, 102 Friday, 101 Saturday. Lows will be in the upper 70s and possibly lower 80s. NWS is always late to the game when it comes to forecasting highs and they are always way too low. The temps above are from TWC and they are even too low when it comes to Waycross highs. We hit 102 earlier this year with only a forecast of 99 and was also the first 100 since 2011. This isn't a dry heat either. Heat index will probably be near 120. but at least the sun angle is lower now than it was in June and July. At my location, the maximum sun angle is now at 69.4 degrees, down from 79.9 degrees on June 21. So we are making progress Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted August 18, 2014 Share Posted August 18, 2014 Looks like we are back to the normal summer weather in NC this week. Hot with a chance of storms every day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted August 18, 2014 Share Posted August 18, 2014 Yep, the usual summer pattern is returning! The precip seems to dissipate as it moves in my direction, case and point this AM! If a complex doesn't form right over me and dump 4-8 inches of rain, I get nada! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted August 18, 2014 Share Posted August 18, 2014 Looks like we are back to the normal summer weather in NC this week. Hot with a chance of storms every day. Really not as bad as it looked a few days back. Normal summer heat for mid week and then another drop off towards the weekend. The great summer continues. Today Showers and thunderstorms, mainly between 1pm and 4pm. High near 84. West wind 5 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. Tonight A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 10pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 72. South wind 3 to 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. Tuesday A chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 89. West wind 5 to 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. Tuesday Night A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 11pm, then a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 69. Calm wind. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. Wednesday A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms before 7am, then a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 91. Calm wind becoming west around 5 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 20%. Wednesday Night A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms before 11pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 71. Chance of precipitation is 20%. Thursday A chance of showers and thunderstorms after noon. Partly sunny, with a high near 92. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Thursday Night A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 72. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Friday A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 90. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Friday Night A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 70. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Saturday A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 86. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Saturday Night A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 68. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Sunday Partly sunny, with a high near 84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted August 18, 2014 Share Posted August 18, 2014 ^ I agree....nothing to out of the ordinary coming up. Looking at the overnight model runs, none really appear to lock in any sort of heat waves. Ridging takes place for a short time, replaced by transient troughing. At least for NC, it looks like intermittent rain chances with near normal temps (with some days above and some below), though the extended. The deeper we continue to get into August and early September without ridging locking in, the chances of extended big heat will diminish rapidly. We're looking good! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted August 18, 2014 Share Posted August 18, 2014 Yesterday's 70% dropped to 50% this morning, now we're up to 80% before 4:00. Radar trends are keeping everything well North of here. Hmmmm --- guess I'll be in the yard all afternoon. *sigh* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted August 18, 2014 Share Posted August 18, 2014 Looks like some big storms near the VA/NC border. WRAL mentioned we're under an elevated risk for severe weather this afternoon, and we might see a watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted August 18, 2014 Share Posted August 18, 2014 Looks like some big storms near the VA/NC border. WRAL mentioned we're under an elevated risk for severe weather this afternoon, and we might see a watch. Here's the outlook: ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER SERN VA INTO ERN NC... ...SUMMARY... A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON FROM PARTS OF UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND FROM THE MID ATLANTIC SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE TENNESSEE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS. ...SOUTHEAST VA INTO ERN NC... UPPER AIR DATA AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE A WELL-DEFINED SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THE DOWNSTREAM ENVIRONMENT IS QUITE MOIST WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AOA 1.75 INCHES AND SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOW 70S. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER OVER SERN VA AND ERN NC...AS WELL AS OVER WRN NC...WHICH WILL PROGRESS EWD AND PROMOTE AREAS OF STRONGER DIABATIC HEATING/DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR. THIS WILL RESULT IN CAPE REACHING 2000-2500 J/KG IN AREAS OF MOST PRONOUNCED HEATING. THE DYNAMIC FORCING FOR LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREADING EWD IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH SHOULD RESULT IN WIDESPREAD STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. UNIDIRECTIONAL WESTERLY FLOW OF 25-35 KT WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED MULTICELL STORMS WITH SEVERAL SHORT LINE SEGMENTS EXPECTED. THE STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS TO PRODUCE STRONG/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS FROM MID-AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted August 18, 2014 Share Posted August 18, 2014 The latest RAP and HRRR show virtually no activity in Central NC through the end of their runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted August 18, 2014 Share Posted August 18, 2014 The latest RAP and HRRR show virtually no activity in Central NC through the end of their runs. So, you're saying WRAL is overhyping things? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted August 18, 2014 Share Posted August 18, 2014 So, you're saying WRAL is overhyping things?Too early to tell, I guess. The NWS has an 80% chance of rain and WRAL and SPC are in agreement, so I think it's premature to evaluate at this point.By the way, what's the diff between hyping and overhyping? That kinda like exaggerating and overexaggurating? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted August 18, 2014 Share Posted August 18, 2014 Too early to tell, I guess. The NWS has an 80% chance of rain and WRAL and SPC are in agreement, so I think it's premature to evaluate at this point. By the way, what's the diff between hyping and overhyping? That kinda like exaggerating and overexaggurating? I think overhyping is just excessively redundant, if that helps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted August 18, 2014 Share Posted August 18, 2014 I think overhyping is just excessively redundant, if that helps. Ah, overredundancy--makes sense! The radar is active across the NC/VA boarder and down east. There also seems to be a line of storms developing to the west of the Triad, headed east. STW in effect for NE portions of NC. Maybe we shouldn't give up on WRAL jus yet.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted August 18, 2014 Share Posted August 18, 2014 Things are about to get UGLY and NASTY in a hurry here in Georgia. 93+ degree heat for at least a week. This will be the worst heat wave we've had in over 2 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted August 18, 2014 Share Posted August 18, 2014 I'm a little confused... they lowered our 80% to 30%, but the afternoon AFD package says PRECIP/TEMPS: GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF SEVERAL SHORTWAVES POISED TO BRUSH BOTH THE NORTHERN/SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF CENTRAL NC...DEEP MOISTURE (PWAT 1.75-2.00") AND MODERATE INSTABILITY...EXPECT CONVECTION TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY LATE THIS AFT/EVE... WITH A LOW CHANCE LINGERING OVERNIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER 70S. Maybe it's the new and improved way to forecast the infamous "Carolina Split" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted August 18, 2014 Share Posted August 18, 2014 Things are about to get UGLY and NASTY in a hurry here in Georgia. 93+ degree heat for at least a week. This will be the worst heat wave we've had in over 2 years. meh, mid 90's with low 60 DP's isn't exactly strange weather for Georgia or really even that bad considering it's mid-august. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted August 18, 2014 Share Posted August 18, 2014 Looks like the storms might be on the way. Severe storm warning in Orange and Alamance counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted August 18, 2014 Share Posted August 18, 2014 Tornado warning for Granville, Franklin, and Vance counties! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted August 18, 2014 Share Posted August 18, 2014 meh, mid 90's with low 60 DP's isn't exactly strange weather for Georgia or really even that bad considering it's mid-august. Lows in the 70s and highs in the mid 90s will feel pretty brutal. Some areas may not get below 75 at night. By this weekend, it will be late August, and that kind of weather is more typical in July or early August. We are about 13 days away from meteorological fall ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted August 18, 2014 Share Posted August 18, 2014 All the storms are going to the north of me so far. More storms out to the west coming my way. Have to wait and see where they go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted August 18, 2014 Share Posted August 18, 2014 Pretty strong cell north of Bailey moving east towards Sharpsburg. Developing some decent rotation and structure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted August 18, 2014 Share Posted August 18, 2014 Warning here. Getting whacked. My Davis just reported a rain rate of 8.5" per hour. Thankfully it only stayed there for about 3 minutes before falling back to a still heavy 4". A lot of wind and lightning as well. Best storm of the year here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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