Jon Posted August 11, 2014 Share Posted August 11, 2014 Ridging off the west coast (in eastern Pacific) and troughing in the western states. I was just speculating that with the healthy looking NAO block that it may not break down as fast next week as shown on the 12z Euro, keeping the heights more neutral in the eastern U.S. Regardless, it's going to feel like Equador compared to the way it's been. I misread I thought "off" was "on". I agree, no matter what it will feel like the heat is on, we'll see what happens. Good point on the block, something to watch. I haven't looked at the 12z yet, it's not loaded fully on WxBell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted August 12, 2014 Share Posted August 12, 2014 Ridging off the west coast (in eastern Pacific) and troughing in the western states. I was just speculating that with the healthy looking NAO block that it may not break down as fast next week as shown on the 12z Euro, keeping the heights more neutral in the eastern U.S. Regardless, it's going to feel like Equador compared to the way it's been. At least it won't feel quite as humid, or will it ? Dp's have been running in the low to mid 70s lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted August 12, 2014 Share Posted August 12, 2014 At least it won't feel quite as humid, or will it ? Dp's have been running in the low to mid 70s lately. Should feel pretty good this week. Next week, probably not as much. Did you ever get any rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted August 12, 2014 Share Posted August 12, 2014 Instability is anemic over Central NC so far. Going to be hard to develop convection without doing a little better in that department. LIs are 0-2! It's completely overcast in downtown Raleigh. Hopefully, the sun will break through later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted August 12, 2014 Share Posted August 12, 2014 The ridge that was suppose to be taking over next week , has done an about face on last nights model runs and looks like flat flow or slight trough now, per GSP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted August 12, 2014 Share Posted August 12, 2014 The ridge that was suppose to be taking over next week , has done an about face on last nights model runs and looks like flat flow or slight trough now, per GSP The 12z GFS basically keeps the jet stream flow zonal and to the north, after truncation. That sounds about right. It allows for some broad ridging to take hold over the southern tier. Doesn't look like too anything out of the ordinary, though, heat/humidity-wise. Looks like a typical summer pattern will emerge, assuming the model is close to correct. For what it's worth, the CFS puts the probability of above normal temps for September at about 75% for much of the eastern half of the country. It also likes near normal precipitation for the eastern seaboard. For today, the SPC has removed the "See Text" discussion for the Carolinas. Instability parameters have improved slightly, though they are far from impressive. MLcape is generally in the 500/1000 J/Kg range for central NC, and LIs are near -3. And the sun is still not out. The 12z globals still show scattered activity developing this afternoon and evening, as do the RAP and HRRR, although none of the activity looks heavy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted August 12, 2014 Share Posted August 12, 2014 Tornado warning east of Richmond, VA right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted August 12, 2014 Share Posted August 12, 2014 WRAL Mike Maze 6 mins · We are watching a developing line of showers and storms to our west this afternoon. This line is advancing toward us and should be here for the evening hours. It is gusty winds, downpours and frequent lightning strikes that are going to accompany the line! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted August 12, 2014 Share Posted August 12, 2014 Should feel pretty good this week. Next week, probably not as much. Did you ever get any rain? about 1.5" over the last 5 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted August 12, 2014 Share Posted August 12, 2014 Under a severe thunderstorm warning eight now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted August 12, 2014 Share Posted August 12, 2014 Under a severe thunderstorm warning eight now. Obs FTW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted August 12, 2014 Share Posted August 12, 2014 Pretty nice storm going on. Steady rain, thunder, and lightning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted August 12, 2014 Share Posted August 12, 2014 RDU has had 1.62 inches of rain in the last hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted August 13, 2014 Share Posted August 13, 2014 Some sections of Capital Blvd near downtown are closed and some people had to be rescued from their cars. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted August 13, 2014 Share Posted August 13, 2014 WRAL reporting that people are being rescued by boats in the 1600 to 1800 blocks of Capital Blvd in downtown Raleigh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted August 13, 2014 Share Posted August 13, 2014 Obs FTW? Evidently, Obs FTL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted August 13, 2014 Share Posted August 13, 2014 Evidently, Obs FTL Yeah, unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted August 14, 2014 Share Posted August 14, 2014 I'm hearing talk of a nasty, major heat wave possibly in about 10 days. 100+ for many areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted August 14, 2014 Share Posted August 14, 2014 I'm hearing talk of a nasty, major heat wave possibly in about 10 days. 100+ for many areas.Maybe if we are real lucky, it will stop at ATL. The pattern right now and even out to day 7+, does not support this,so I wouldn't be too concerned . Most likely , the talkers are looking at the GFS, the listeners, every other model! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted August 14, 2014 Share Posted August 14, 2014 I'm hearing talk of a nasty, major heat wave possibly in about 10 days. 100+ for many areas. Maybe if we are real lucky, it will stop at ATL. The pattern right now and even out to day 7+, does not support this,so I wouldn't be too concerned . Most likely , the talkers are looking at the GFS, the listeners, every other model! Both GFS and Euro are running hotter than their EPS means even out to days 5-7 nevermind the extended period. The GEFS 16 day high is 91 for god sakes and thats on the 24th, the mean is around 90 the entire time. Example, For 8/20 Euro 12z OP is 95 EPS mean is 92. For 8/22 OP is 97 EPS mean is 93...GFS gives RDU a 100 degree day by the 23rd, I'm not believing it as of yet, I'd put it at max 97ish, it's just too far out to say we'll get 100+ temps. One thing is for sure though, given our previous pattern this will feel ridiculously hot lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted August 14, 2014 Share Posted August 14, 2014 Both GFS and Euro are running hotter than their EPS means even out to days 5-7 nevermind the extended period. The GEFS 16 day high is 91 for god sakes and thats on the 24th, the mean is around 90 the entire time. Example, For 8/20 Euro 12z OP is 95 EPS mean is 92. For 8/22 OP is 97 EPS mean is 93...GFS gives RDU a 100 degree day by the 23rd, I'm not believing it as of yet, I'd put it at max 97ish, it's just too far out to say we'll get 100+ temps. One thing is for sure though, given our previous pattern this will feel ridiculously hot lol. Glad I picked next week to be on the Crystal Coast. Looking likely I'll finally have the first above normal daily temp avg since July 14. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 14, 2014 Share Posted August 14, 2014 Glad I picked next week to be on the Crystal Coast. Looking likely I'll finally have the first above normal daily temp avg since July 14. Yeah hot and dry for a few weeks would actually help improve conditions here, ditches and fields are flooded, farmers will be needing to start getting the corn in and thats hard to do with all the water in the fields. Also it might do something about the bajillion monster mosquitos we are currently suffering from.....its tough to sit on the porch and enjoy these coolish evenings with a cold beer without the Thermacell going lol. They work great but are not the cheap to operate...the refil packs are $15-20 and last a few days if you are lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted August 14, 2014 Author Share Posted August 14, 2014 Yeah hot and dry for a few weeks would actually help improve conditions here, ditches and fields are flooded, farmers will be needing to start getting the corn in and thats hard to do with all the water in the fields. Also it might do something about the bajillion monster mosquitos we are currently suffering from.....its tough to sit on the porch and enjoy these coolish evenings with a cold beer without the Thermacell going lol. They work great but are not the cheap to operate...the refil packs are $15-20 and last a few days if you are lucky. I was about to comment...any potential heat wave in the Day 7-10 range will initially have to work on evaporating ground level moisture. So instead of 100/70...it might be more like 96/74...Yea! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted August 14, 2014 Share Posted August 14, 2014 Both GFS and Euro are running hotter than their EPS means even out to days 5-7 nevermind the extended period. The GEFS 16 day high is 91 for god sakes and thats on the 24th, the mean is around 90 the entire time. Example, For 8/20 Euro 12z OP is 95 EPS mean is 92. For 8/22 OP is 97 EPS mean is 93...GFS gives RDU a 100 degree day by the 23rd, I'm not believing it as of yet, I'd put it at max 97ish, it's just too far out to say we'll get 100+ temps. One thing is for sure though, given our previous pattern this will feel ridiculously hot lol. Guess the pendulum has to swing back the other way eventually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted August 15, 2014 Share Posted August 15, 2014 Euro looks ridgy in the east toward the end of the run. Can't tell if it's progressive, but it doesn't really have an "in and out" kinda look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted August 15, 2014 Share Posted August 15, 2014 It's about to get Hot (with very low humidity) if you believe the med. range models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted August 16, 2014 Share Posted August 16, 2014 It's about to get Hot (with very low humidity) if you believe the med. range models. I sure hope you are right about the very low humidity. I can deal with hot if the humidity is bearable. My worst fear is that it will get hot AND humid and I can't handle that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted August 16, 2014 Share Posted August 16, 2014 I sure hope you are right about the very low humidity. I can deal with hot if the humidity is bearable. My worst fear is that it will get hot AND humid and I can't handle that. What will happen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted August 16, 2014 Share Posted August 16, 2014 It's about to get Hot (with very low humidity) if you believe the med. range models. 325 AM EDT SAT AUG 16 2014 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY... AS A FRONTAL ZONE SITS STALLED NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA VIRGINIA BORDER. THIS FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH TONIGHT... USHERING IN HOTTER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted August 16, 2014 Share Posted August 16, 2014 The 0z Euro doesn't show any mega ridging through 240, so that's good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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