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The official 2014 Summer Discussion Thread


Marion_NC_WX

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Certainly looking like I'm going to be right in this being a nonevent for a large part of the area, namely from the GSP metro area and Asheville through Hickory and Charlotte over to Statesville. and up into the Triad. . The west and northwest flow aloft is too much to overcome. Long range looks dry too and the first signs of BIG HEAT are showing up. Some of us may see 100+ in about 10 days.

QPF looking pretty paltry on the 18z NAM and GFS.

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The only washout over here is the washout of rain chances in my forecast! If you read our AFD, you would think a wintry threat was in the way!! There are so many: what ifs, could bes, high bust potential, so on, etc! Quite a hilarious write up to me, pretty much has every possibility covered, just like winter! :)

 

Yep...a big part of our job is to relay uncertainty. 

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The only washout over here is the washout of rain chances in my forecast! If you read our AFD, you would think a wintry threat was in the way!! There are so many: what ifs, could bes, high bust potential, so on, etc! Quite a hilarious write up to me, pretty much has every possibility covered, just like winter! :)

That's the kind of forecast I like. Especially if they detail the uncertainties to the point where I can tell, as the event begins to unfold, which scenario is taking place. At that point, I can feel pretty sure what will happen next. If there is a high degree of uncertainty it certainly should expressed in both the discussion and the the forecast.

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The bottom dropped out along the eastern slopes of the Apps a few hours ago and it poured for about 2-3 hours and its still raining lightly...A lot of 2-3 inch rainfall totals have been recorded...some nasty convection currently over GSP...

 

You could see the lowest clouds rapidly moving north around 6 pm, I would assume we have some kind of LLJ bump up against the mountains...

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Interstate 85 closed in Greenville...parts of it under water...

 

Roads everywhere downtown Greenville closed, Cleveland Park under water...

 

Water rescues and evacuations all over the city...

 

Bridge collapse reported as well.  Memorial dr. near Tryon St.

 

I-385 also closed in spots

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So far RDU has received a little over 1.5". This is the best thing for us. We've had plenty of rain and anything more would have gone to flooding. The temps have been great; they've held in the 60s most of yesterday. Looks like more CAD for today. The extended should make a lot of us happy. (for RDU area) Highs for mid to late week look to be in the low to mid 80s with lows in the low to mid 60s; and DRY weather! We cannot beat this weather. 

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CoCoRaHS 24 hour totals...that 6"+ seems off  obviously, 4"+ near Fay... impressive... I think WRAL did great around the triangle. For those near Wake Forest or Durham obviously it could have been 0.1" or 1.0" a few miles away. I think we still have more on the way until 8pm.

eDy7N5q.png

 

TyOsLWP.png

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Looks like after a cool week, a more typical summertime pattern might set in for a time. Longer range guidance indicates the jet stream will retreat to the north and the anomalous troughing that we've been experiencing may not return for the foreseeable future. The latest CFS forecast for September shows above normal temps and below normal precip in the SE. I haven't been following it this summer, so I don't know how well it has done from 20+ days out. Anyway, it doesn't look like anything too exciting on the horizon.

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Looks like after a cool week, a more typical summertime pattern might set in for a time. Longer range guidance indicates the jet stream will retreat to the north and the anomalous troughing that we've been experiencing may not return for the foreseeable future.

 

First off, a cold front sweeps through and we finally get out of the clouds for Wed and Thursday, with slightly below normal temps.  The Pacific pattern begins to evolve with a ridge developing off the west coast / troughing in the western U.S....but we also have a healthy -NAO block developing which should keep us out of big ridging in the east.

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First off, a cold front sweeps through and we finally get out of the clouds for Wed and Thursday, with slightly below normal temps.  The Pacific pattern begins to evolve with a ridge developing off the west coast / troughing in the western U.S....but we also have a healthy -NAO block developing which should keep us out of big ridging in the east.

what time period are you talking about specifically here? Next week I assume? I'm confused with a ridge on the west coast and troughing on the west coast in the same sentence haha

 

I think the period at the 20th and on we can definitely see a ridge develop...I agree I don't think it will be a mega ridge of death but we're definitely going to flip script mid month with a trough out west and a ridge somewhere along the east, probably weak. During this time period, 20-22nd+, the NAO will move towards neutral and it won't make a difference in holding any kind of pattern we have. During this time period the PNA is nose diving as well. Looks like we'll finally see some heat.

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what time period are you talking about specifically here? Next week I assume? I'm confused with a ridge on the west coast and troughing on the west coast in the same sentence haha

 

I think the period at the 20th and on we can definitely see a ridge develop...I agree I don't think it will be a mega ridge of death but we're definitely going to flip script mid month with a trough out west and a ridge somewhere along the east, probably weak. During this time period, 20-22nd+, the NAO will move towards neutral and it won't make a difference in holding any kind of pattern we have. During this time period the PNA is nose diving as well. Looks like we'll finally see some heat.

 

Ridging off the west coast (in eastern Pacific) and troughing in the western states.  I was just speculating that with the healthy looking NAO block that it may not break down as fast next week as shown on the 12z Euro, keeping the heights more neutral in the eastern U.S.  Regardless, it's going to feel like Equador compared to the way it's been.

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WRAL Nate Johnson

2 mins ·

Were it to end today, August 2014 would go down as the coldest August on record at RDU, at least in terms of high temperatures. Through the 10th, we're averaging a high of 81.1°, which is exactly the average high temperature at RDU for the month of September since 1945. Of course, there's still three more weeks of August to go - but this September temperature preview has had its benefits!

Another interesting observation: January, February, and March were all below average; April was right at average, and both May and June were above average. It was the latter half of July that saw temperatures tank, and we haven't recovered since.

 

 
 
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