frazdaddy Posted August 5, 2014 Share Posted August 5, 2014 Sun angle is equivalent to Early May right now, so it's getting lower in the sky. There's been a freak snowstorm or two in Early May, so why not in August ? There is a disclaimer at the bottom of CR's map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted August 5, 2014 Share Posted August 5, 2014 Big 3 like the idea of continued troughing in the east through mid-August Euro proving once again why it's superior. GFS was showing ridge by 8/15 bringing the heat to the SE with a trough on the west coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted August 6, 2014 Share Posted August 6, 2014 Still eligible for complaining are Snowstorm and Burns. Hopefully, not for long: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted August 6, 2014 Share Posted August 6, 2014 Nice heatwave coming up. I guess when folks say no heatwaves are showing up on the models, I should assume that it is just referring to North Carolina. 98 tomorrow, 99 Thursday, and 100 Friday. Yeah man, these models are full of it. Looks extremely sweltering!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted August 6, 2014 Share Posted August 6, 2014 Yeah man, these models are full of it. Looks extremely sweltering!!NWS is always too low for this area. They don't realize that this area is like 5-10 degrees warmer than whatever they forecast. Look at TWC temps. Even they are too low sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted August 6, 2014 Share Posted August 6, 2014 metal, you are in another galaxy down there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted August 6, 2014 Share Posted August 6, 2014 Yeah man, these models are full of it. Looks extremely sweltering!! lol Nice map icons. But it seems as if someone didn't even notice. It must be foggy down in the swamp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted August 6, 2014 Share Posted August 6, 2014 The GFS is a bad model. Euro/GFS/GEM 240hrs 00z 8/16 Euro/GFS/GEM 8-10 day mean 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted August 6, 2014 Share Posted August 6, 2014 lol Nice map icons. But it seems as if someone didn't even notice. It must be foggy down in the swamp. Maybe the colors blended together too much. Hopefully, the swamp won't dry up with all of the lack of rain and extreme heat. The GFS is a bad model. Looking good, Jon. Every day gets us closer to the end of the potential for heat waves. Fall is coming! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted August 6, 2014 Share Posted August 6, 2014 I moved the discussion of how many days it takes to make a week into banter. If you really have to, continue it there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted August 6, 2014 Share Posted August 6, 2014 RAH says it's still coming. You can call us the Soggy Bottom Boys! .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...AS OF 245 PM WEDNESDAY......COOL AND SOGGY CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND...SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: VERY SIMILAR TO LAST WEEKEND...A WARMSEASON HYBRID CAD EVENT IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS SHORTWAVEENERGY IN WNW/NW FLOW ALOFT TRACKS ACROSS A DIABATICALLYENHANCED/REINFORCED FRONTAL ZONE OVER THE CAROLINAS. EXPECT DAYTIMEHIGHS WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL.THE FINER FORECAST DETAILS SUCH AS QPF AMOUNTS AND THREAT OFTHUNDERSTORMS IS STILL DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN AT THIS TIME GIVENCONTINUE LARGE MODEL SPREAD...AS MODELS STRUGGLE TO COME TO ACONSENSUS ON UPSTREAM MESOSCALE FEATURES/CONVECTION WHICH WILL PLAYA KEY ROLE IN THE EVENTUAL EVOLUTION OF A WEDGE FRONTAL ZONE ANDWAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG IT.AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THE BIGGEST THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH THISSYSTEM WILL BE FROM PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL IN A A BELT OF HIGHPWATS OF 1.9-2.1" ATTENDANT TO THE WEDGE/WARM FRONTAL ZONE.WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES IS POSSIBLE BETWEENFRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME FLOODINGCONCERNS IF THE HEAVY RAINFALL FALLS IN A RELATIVELY SHORT DURATION.ADDITIONALLY... THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT ANY SEVEREPOTENTIAL WOULD REMAIN ALONG COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS...BUTWILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR ANY CHANGES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OFDAYS.MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRAVERSING THE REGIONSHOULD PUSH THE PESKY FRONTAL ZONE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA LATEMONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY... RESULTING IN MODERATING TEMPERATURES WITHDECREASING CONVECTIVE CHANCES.&& Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 Still looking soggy for the WEEKEND, with maybe some rain Friday night (which is not technically the weekend) and some scattered showers and storms early NEXT WEEK (meaning Monday/Tuesady, which obviously is not the WEEKEND). NWS in Raleigh is considering a flood watch for the WEEKEND. Burns should be effectively dropped from the list after this WEEKEND. Snowstorm gets polyped this run. Sorry bud! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 sure am glad we are on this awesome pattern where every weekend is a washout.... , the kids start school back here Aug 24th and I would love to get a beach weekend or zoo trip in before then......I also got tons of yard work to get done at the new house I moved into and its rained every weekend since we moved in. Looks like we might ONLY get 1-3" this weekend versus the 4-5" we got last weekend even though I am no longer sure exactly when or what a weekend is anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 sure am glad we are on this awesome pattern where every weekend is a washout.... , the kids start school back here Aug 24th and I would love to get a beach weekend or zoo trip in before then......I also got tons of yard work to get done at the new house I moved into and its rained every weekend since we moved in. I feel your pain. I need to mow the lawn, and would much rather do it Saturday morning than after work. I can't wait for fall and the weekly chore of mowing the lawn is over. I enjoy the summers that are drier and you only have to mow every other week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 For Brick, this is for Saturday....2-3" in Raleigh for Saturday 12z to Sunday 12z. Obviously looking at flash flood probability here. wa-wa-wa-wa-washhhhout Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 I feel your pain. I need to mow the lawn, and would much rather do it Saturday morning than after work. I can't wait for fall and the weekly chore of mowing the lawn is over. I enjoy the summers that are drier and you only have to mow every other week. Just move to Georgia. I haven't mowed my lawn in a month and it's brown and crunchy now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 Weekend Washout still on track. Both the 12z NAM and 12z GFS increased amounts over central NC (the NAM especially so), and both moved the axis of heaviest precip south. The best amounts still look to be in south central/southeastern VA and northeastern NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 Weekend Washout still on track. Both the 12z NAM and 12z GFS increased amounts over central NC (the NAM especially so), and both moved the axis of heaviest precip south. The best amounts still look to be in south central/southeastern VA and northeastern NC. Pretty much sucks....the mosquitos here are <---------------------------------------------------> that big right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 I don't see this being a big precip producer for my area. The easterly flow seems like it won't be as locked in for a few days, it will be in and out and we could be in the warm sector by Sat night. I would go with alot of light precip with totals less than a half an inch for me! Hope I'm wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 Would not shock me to see it dry and in the 90's in SC and GA this weekend. This wet event is clearly going north of the last 2 events. Maybe even 90 and dry in Charlotte over the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 Would not shock me to see it dry and in the 90's in SC and GA this weekend. This wet event is clearly going north of the last 2 events. Maybe even 90 and dry in Charlotte over the weekend. It really matters where the wedge front sets up. The 12z GFS still depicts surface winds at 96 hours from the north into at least the northern zones of SC. http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2014&model_mm=08&model_dd=07&model_init_hh=12&fhour=96¶meter=WSPD&level=10&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 Weekend Washout still on track. Both the 12z NAM and 12z GFS increased amounts over central NC (the NAM especially so), and both moved the axis of heaviest precip south. The best amounts still look to be in south central/southeastern VA and northeastern NC. I was waiting for the Euro to edge it's way south from VA border to northern NC and now Wake County....12z Euro precip map has a 6" totals for this weekend over Durham/Wake Counties it's beautiful to see really, and a hole of 1.4" just below Harnett. Obviously (hopefully) overdone but , we would definitely see some flash flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 Brad P. isn't giving Raleigh much love through Sunday morning.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 Brad P. isn't giving Raleigh much love through Sunday morning.. Something is really wrong with this picture. None of the operational models support this depiction. I guess this is their in-house model. Then even his text is wrong for RDU. It should be .8 (not.08) to match the color banding. **even so, if it was right we would actually benefit from less rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 That map is probably off by 100-200 miles. That big heavy area will probably be from Roanoke Va to Richmond and Norfolk VA. Raleigh should get 1-2 inches of rain.The Charlotte metro WELL LESS than half of what that shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 I was waiting for the Euro to edge it's way south from VA border to northern NC and now Wake County....12z Euro precip map has a 6" totals for this weekend over Durham/Wake Counties it's beautiful to see really, and a hole of 1.4" just below Harnett. Obviously (hopefully) overdone but , we would definitely see some flash flooding. Looking at the rough eWall graphics, it looks like the best 700mb RH stays in very northern NC and southern VA but it still looks pretty moist anyway. I would have thought the Euro would not have shifted south just based on the RH fields...but I can't really tell. Kind of surprising that the 6" line is in Wake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 RAH has enjoyed using the word soggy, in their last few discussions, to describe the upcoming event. .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...A STRONG WARM SEASON HYBRID CAD EVENT WILL RESULT IN COOL SOGGYCONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND.A CONGLOMERATION OF CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORT DISTURBANCES OVER THELOWER OHIO/TN VALLEY WILL TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD...AND ACROSSNORTH CAROLINA THROUGH WEEKEND. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WILL BREED ACOMPLEX MILLER TYPE-B STORM SYSTEM WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALLFOCUSED ALONG AND NORTH OF A DIABATICALLY ENHANCED/REINFORCEDBAROCLINIC ZONE INVOF THE CAROLINAS.SPREAD REMAINS HIGH AMONG THE VARIOUS DETERMINISTIC MODEL SOLUTIONSAS WELL AS WITH INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...WHICH IS NOTSURPRISING OWING TO THE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE FEATURES DRIVING THISSYSTEM...WITH CONCERN THAT QPF/CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK IS NEGATIVELYIMPACTING MODEL SOLUTIONS.AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THE PRIMARY THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH THISSYSTEM WILL BE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL IN A A BELT OF HIGH PWATSOF 1.9-2.1" ATTENDANT TO THE WEDGE/WARM FRONTAL ZONE. HPC QPFGUIDANCE SUGGESTS WIDESPREAD 2 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THEFORECAST...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 3.0 INCHESPOSSIBLE. DUE TO FACT THE THIS 2-3" OF RAIN WILL LIKELY BE FALLINGOVER A 36 HOUR PERIOD...THE MMEFS(ENSEMBLE BASED RIVER FORECASTSYSTEM)INDICATES A VERY LOW...LESS THAN 10%...PROBABILITY THAT ANYOF THE RIVERS WITHIN THE RALEIGH HYDROLOGIC WILL REACH MINORFLOODING. OUR MAIN FLOODING CONCERN THEN WILL BE FROM URBAN ANDFLASH FLOODING FROM ANY 1-2" RAINFALL THAT FALLS IN A ONE HOURPERIOD OR LESS.WRT SEVERE CONVECTION...CONFIDENCE IS STILL VERY LOW GIVENSIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN THE PRECISE EVOLUTION OF CYCLOGENESIS ANDPOSITION OF THE WEDGE FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONGTHE FRONT. AT THIS TIME...MARGINAL SHEAR PARAMETERS WOULD SUGGESTA LOW-END SEVERE THREAT WITH PATTERN RECOGNITION FAVORING AREASACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE WHERE BETTERDESTABILIZATION IS POSSIBLE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR OVER THE NEXTCOUPLE OF DAYS.WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DAMMING REGIME WILLSUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL...RANGING FROM LOWER TOMID 70S IN THE NW PIEDMONT TO UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S SE.&& Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 Love the great phrasing! "A CONGLOMERATION OF CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORT DISTURBANCES " Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 Love the great phrasing! "A CONGLOMERATION OF CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORT DISTURBANCES " LOL.....I think that's what I'll tell the family at dinner tonight: "We're going to have to stay indoors this weekend because we're going to get a conglomeration of convectively induced vort disturbances." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 18z NAM is very "soggy" for RDU northward: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fnam%2F18%2Fnam_namer_084_precip_p60.gif&model=nam&area=namer&storm=&cycle=18¶m=precip_p60&fhr=084&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20140807+18+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.