The official 2014 Summer Discussion Thread

[Cold Rain]

So at long last, Metal is off the complaint list. I assume Snowstorm is still eligible? How about Burns? How much did y'all get?

Looks like the opportunity for scattered showers/storms still exist for a few days, until better chances move back in toward the end of the week.

[Snowless in Carrollton]

So at long last, Metal is off the complaint list. I assume Snowstorm is still eligible? How about Burns? How much did y'all get?

Looks like the opportunity for scattered showers/storms still exist for a few days, until better chances move back in toward the end of the week.

no rain yet. About 1" in the last 24 days. It's been the summer of missed opportunities for sure. We've had lots of cloudy days and lots of days where we had a 0.01", 0.10", etc.

[jburns]

So at long last, Metal is off the complaint list. I assume Snowstorm is still eligible? How about Burns? How much did y'all get?

Looks like the opportunity for scattered showers/storms still exist for a few days, until better chances move back in toward the end of the week.

 

1.5" storm total.

[mackerel_sky]

According to GSP afternoon forecast discussion, next weekend is looking like a possible washout in our forecast area, with the Euro spitting out widespread 3-5 inch totals in the Fri-Sun timeframe !! Temps will be below normal due to a wedge! This summer just did a complete 180, to dry and hot to cool and wet, with this being the 3rd wedging event in about a 5 week period! Nice set up as we slowly creep torwards winter.

[Marion_NC_WX]

According to GSP afternoon forecast discussion, next weekend is looking like a possible washout in our forecast area, with the Euro spitting out widespread 3-5 inch totals in the Fri-Sun timeframe !! Temps will be below normal due to a wedge! This summer just did a complete 180, to dry and hot to cool and wet, with this being the 3rd wedging event in about a 5 week period! Nice set up as we slowly creep torwards winter.

 

 

Yeah, 12z Euro develops a pretty good 850mb closed low over the TN Valley Region by next weekend...

 

Being 5 days out, its way too early to nail down any specifics...I will say this, the Euro performed much better than the GFS on what has occured this weekend...if sniffed out the idea of all the moisture lining up along the Coastal Plain where as the GFS brought it a lot further inland..

[POWERSTROKE]

Take all we can get

[FallsLake]

RAH still talking about another CAD for this weekend. Their not lowering high temps too much at this point until they get a better idea on the actual setup.

 

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: THE SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
STALL JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA... LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
CONTINUED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS (ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN/SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE AREA) AS DISTURBANCES TRACK ALONG
THE FRONT IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW. MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER WARM
SEASON CAD WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. ITS HARD TO PICK OUT A PERIOD
THIS FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST THAT WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS/RAIN. THUS... WILL SHOW GENERALLY LOW END CHANCE POPS
FROM FRIDAY ONWARD... AS WE SHOULD HAVE PERIODS OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER... WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN/SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. WITH THAT SAID... WILL NOT GO
CRAZY LOWERING HIGH TEMPS... GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE EVOLUTION
IN THE DISTURBANCES EXPECTED TO TRACK ALONG THE STALLED FRONT.
INSTEAD WILL TREND HIGH TEMPS BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS TIME... IN
THE 70S INTO THE 80S. LOWS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&
 

[Cold Rain]

So....Brick, Metal, and Mackrel are all off the complaint list now. Snowstorm is still safely on and well entrenched, and I'm leaving Burns on at my discretion because the WPC precip analysis page is down and I can't see precip totals or departures from average.

As Falls said, another damming event looks possible this week/weekend. Precip totals across the SE don't look as robust as this past event. However, as far as any of the operational models can see, there is no big heat on the horizon. The farther we get into August with this kind of pattern, the easier it will become to lock the door on any sustained heat waves. Awesome summer.

Here's the WPC 7 day QPF map (looking better for Snowstorm and Burns is reverse-polyped this time!):

[FallsLake]

Setup to the warm season CAD:

 

http://www.aos.wisc.edu/weatherdata/avn/avn_cpres_h120.gif

[griteater]

If Euro is correct, Brick is going to be on the complaint list for weekend rains.  00z Euro looks pretty nasty late week into the weekend.

[mackerel_sky]

I'm still basically in the red on that map, that is the most important thing on that map!

[jburns]

So....Brick, Metal, and Mackrel are all off the complaint list now. Snowstorm is still safely on and well entrenched, and I'm leaving Burns on at my discretion because the WPC precip analysis page is down and I can't see precip totals or departures from average.

As Falls said, another damming event looks possible this week/weekend. Precip totals across the SE don't look as robust as this past event. However, as far as any of the operational models can see, there is no big heat on the horizon. The farther we get into August with this kind of pattern, the easier it will become to lock the door on any sustained heat waves. Awesome summer.

Here's the WPC 7 day QPF map (looking better for Snowstorm and Burns is reverse-polyped this time!):

 

The map makes us look like icons for the Miser brothers.

[Cold Rain]

 

The map makes us look like icons for the Miser brothers.

 

Haha, true!

[Marion_NC_WX]

If Euro is correct, Brick is going to be on the complaint list for weekend rains.  00z Euro looks pretty nasty late week into the weekend.

 

 

I just now took a peek at the king...crazy looking 850mb low basically follows Interstate 40 this weekend from Arkansas to the Carolinas and begins to lift northeast...only for an additional upper low to form over Alabama Day 7-8...

[Snowless in Carrollton]

Accuweather is saying a long lasting period of heat will commence in mid August and last through early September in the eastern half of the country.

[Brick Tamland]

If Euro is correct, Brick is going to be on the complaint list for weekend rains.  00z Euro looks pretty nasty late week into the weekend.

 

Well, this is what WRAL said today:

 

Temperatures will warm into the low 90s when the sun peeks through, but there is about a 30 percent chance for rain every day this week. 

 

No severe storms are in the forecast, and showers will be passing rather than sustained. No single day will be a total washout this week, but there's a chance for rain each afternoon.

 

 

We'll see if they are right.

[FallsLake]

I'll probably regret saying this but I would be open to some dryer(..and even hotter) weather. My yard has been a soaking mess this whole summer. Feels like I'm living in a tropical rain forest...and I don't like it.

[Jon]

Accuweather is saying a long lasting period of heat will commence in mid August and last through early September in the eastern half of the country.

I'd say late august instead of mid, so after the 20th the edge of the ridge setting up over the Atlantic might funnel in but other than that I don't think we're gonna have a heat wave or anything. I still like the Euro conrol/ens for this time period vs the GFS, we are overdue on the heat though.

[GaWx]

Accuweather is saying a long lasting period of heat will commence in mid August and last through early September in the eastern half of the country.

 

 IF the just released Euro weeklies are accurate for mid to late August, there will be no long lasting above normal heat in the SE though there could be in the NE with a little above normal 500 mb ridging centered nearby. The SE would be below that ridging, which would keep it from getting too hot for too long there. Also, with this setup, IF there are any tropical cyclones offshore the SE coast, this/these may not recurve easily off the SE as is the case with Bertha. Looking at precip. anomalies, the weeklies have the tropics pretty dry overall for weeks 2-4 with wetter above that in the subtropics in the general vicinity of 25-30 N over/near the SE US.

[griteater]

Big 3 like the idea of continued troughing in the east through mid-August

 

[Marion_NC_WX]

I don't have access to weatherbell at this time...I'm curious as to how much QPF the Euro is spitting out for late this week? I did see where it has another massive wedge event for the Carolinas on Saturday.

[Cold Rain]

The 300 hr 12Z GFS 500 mb map very nicely illustrates why I am not optimistic for a SE snowstorm at this time.

You can see that we have a nice Aleutian low, helping to pump up a nicely placed west coast ridge. Unfortunately, instead of a west-based -NAO, we have a western Atlantic ridge. Neither the Atlantic ridge nor the Pacific ridge connect over the top in a fashion that would force the PV south.

So we're left with a PV in north-Central Canada and a NW flow into the eastern part of the US. The geneneral trough in the eastern US should yield below normal temps, but outside of an extremely potent shortwave diving south in the NW flow, I wouldn't hold out much hope for snow...and even then, it's a stretch.

Hopefully, as we move deeper into the season, some legitimate west-based -NAO blocking will emerge. That would have the potential to slow the flow and allow a sharper trough to develop a Gulf storm that might then ride up the coast.

Hopefully, we can eventually step in that direction.

[Wow]

The 300 hr 12Z GFS 500 mb map very nicely illustrates why I am not optimistic for a SE snowstorm at this time.

You can see that we have a nice Aleutian low, helping to pump up a nicely placed west coast ridge. Unfortunately, instead of a west-based -NAO, we have a western Atlantic ridge. Neither the Atlantic ridge nor the Pacific ridge connect over the top in a fashion that would force the PV south.

So we're left with a PV in north-Central Canada and a NW flow into the eastern part of the US. The geneneral trough in the eastern US should yield below normal temps, but outside of an extremely potent shortwave diving south in the NW flow, I wouldn't hold out much hope for snow...and even then, it's a stretch.

Hopefully, as we move deeper into the season, some legitimate west-based -NAO blocking will emerge. That would have the potential to slow the flow and allow a sharper trough to develop a Gulf storm that might then ride up the coast.

Hopefully, we can eventually step in that direction.

 

It's been a while since we've had an old-fashioned August snowstorm. 

[NRVwxfan.]

It's been a while since we've had an old-fashioned August snowstorm. 

   

[franklin NCwx]

It's been a while since we've had an old-fashioned August snowstorm.

the sun angle and surface temp crowd will temper the boards excitement on this one.

[FallsLake]

I don't have access to weatherbell at this time...I'm curious as to how much QPF the Euro is spitting out for late this week? I did see where it has another massive wedge event for the Carolinas on Saturday.

RAH still thinks the CAD will setup this weekend. I've got an outside event planned for Saturday so really hoping for it to be dry.

 

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

AS OF 250 PM TUESDAY...

WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOWNSTREAM OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE

CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL US WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION. AS WEAK

SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES ADVANCE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE

REGION...OVERRUNNING PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD WEST TO EAST INTO

CENTRAL NC FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...NORTH OF A FRONTAL ZONE STALLED

SOUTH OF THE AREA. MUCH LIKE LAST WEEKEND...ANOTHER WARM SEASON CAD

EVENT LOOKS TO BE IN THE MAKING WITH FORECAST DETAILS CONTINGENT ON

MESOSCALE FEATURES AND CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION.

FUTURE FORECASTS WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE POSITION/LOCATION

OF THE WEDGE-WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND POTENTIAL SURFACE WAVE ALONG

THE FRONT THAT COULD RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN AS

WELL AS SEVERE CONVECTION. FOR NOW HAVE BUMPED POPS UP TO LIKELY FOR

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AND HAVE FOLLOWED A CAD CLIMATOLOGY WITH

RESPECT TO NATURE OF CONVECTION...WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF

THUNDER IN THE SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN. DEPENDING ON

TIMING/COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF PRECIP....HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND

COULD STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S.

PESKY FRONTAL ZONE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE

AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN MODERATING TEMPERATURES

WITH CONVECTIVE CHANCES SLOWLY WINDING DOWN.

&&

 

[Brick Tamland]

RAH still thinks the CAD will setup this weekend. I've got an outside event planned for Saturday so really hoping for it to be dry.

 

 

WRAL assured us yesterday that any storms  this week will be passing rather than sustained, and that no single day will be a total washout.

[Jon]

RAH still thinks the CAD will setup this weekend. I've got an outside event planned for Saturday so really hoping for it to be dry.

 

See below

 

I don't have access to weatherbell at this time...I'm curious as to how much QPF the Euro is spitting out for late this week? I did see where it has another massive wedge event for the Carolinas on Saturday.

Widespread 2-3" across the entire state, no one is left out unlike the GFS which leaves out the far southern region. In fact, on the Euro there's an area Moore/Hoke counties with 6"+ a few counties wide...of course, this will change run to run but this has some juice to it. I'd post the map but I'm selective usually it what paid maps I post and this is one of 'em, there are a lot Ryan lets people distribute freely but when it comes to non WMO essential Euro maps it's a no-no.

 

By the way, Ryan Maue is giving away free 7-day trials without credit card requirements hit him up on twitter to see if you can get a login if interested.

 

WRAL assured us yesterday that any storms  this week will be passing rather than sustained, and that no single day will be a total washout.

He's talking about Saturday not the work week man. If the wedge is present this weekend, it has a chance to be a washout this weekend.

[Solak]

WRAL assured us yesterday that any storms  this week will be passing rather than sustained, and that no single day will be a total washout.

I'll be waiting on the "any storms this week" with baited breath.

[Snowless in Carrollton]

the sun angle and surface temp crowd will temper the boards excitement on this one.

Sun angle is equivalent to Early May right now, so it's getting lower in the sky. There's been a freak snowstorm or two in Early May, so why not in August ?