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The official 2014 Summer Discussion Thread


Marion_NC_WX

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That's the last 24 hours, what CR and I posted is from 12z today forward, it's the precipitation forecast from today forward.

 

If you look at CR's graphic from yesterday, you can see the purples near Gastonia and CTL and heavier rains out west which is what I think you're referring to. We're talking about two different time periods.

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For: Brick, Burns (polyped again...sorry man), Snowstorm, Mack, and Metal

From: HPC (7 day precip accums)

Off the complaint list: Brick and Mack. Everyone else, fire away.

 

Getting some rain, so all is not lost.   You made me look hot on the map. Thanks.  :)

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Getting some rain, so all is not lost.   You made me look hot on the map. Thanks.   :)

 

You're on fire, sir!

 

Boy, that map just keeps getting worse and worse. It won't be long before I'm in the green area :(

Yeah, the pattern isn't looking great for west GA for a little while. Sorry man.

 

 

So, when was the rain supposed to start in the Triangle? There's nothing here yet.

 

You'll get some rain before the afternoon is over.

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The 12z GGEM has a max of 14" over the next three days in coastal NC, pretty wild.

 

The GEM is full of it. But there will definitely be a lot of rain there. The 12z NAM keeps unsettled weather for the central and eastern Carolinas through 84. The 12z GFS keep it unsettled through 384, with a few short breaks here and there. Both of those models are full of it too.

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Some numbers below that I put together for Charlotte.  Over the 136 years of records back to 1878, the 2003 summer (May to Sept in this case) was the #6 coolest, and #3 wettest...and 2010 was the #1 warmest.  Also check out August 2007...all days 90+ during the drought.

 

For 2014, we are tracking close to normal on the 90+ days, but below normal on the 95+ days (normal in this case is a short comparison back to 2000) 

 

21eoyug.gif

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Must say, I am a little disappointed in that the southeast flow broke down a bit faster than the models were showing a couple days ago...for Western North Carolina today was supposed to be the big rain day, instead it occured on Thursday.

 

Anyway, I'm sure the folks along I-85 from around Anderson to around the Charlotte Metro area are prob happy the rain moved out. Anything in the light shade of blue or darker is more than 1 inch storm total, the darker greens (2-plus inches) and the oranges and reds are in excess of 4 inches.

 

post-1418-0-18007300-1406946153_thumb.pn

 

 

 

Now...that said, we still have a good flow at 500mb along with surface instability will allow convective chances to go up for Western North Carolina this weekend.

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The cool wet summer just will not let up. RAH talking about another damming event next weekend.

 

FOR WED-SAT: MID LEVEL FLOW WEAKENS AND FLATTENS THROUGH THE PERIOD
BUT REMAINS GENTLY CYCLONIC THROUGH FRI WITH THE UPPER LOW HOLDING
OVER ERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST STATES. WE SHOULD SEE ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WED... MAINLY SE... BUT WITH LOWER
COVERAGE THAN EARLIER IN THE WEEK DUE TO THE WEAKER DEEP LAYER SHEAR
AND MODERATING PW. THE STRONGEST WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF
THE MEAN TROUGH WED NIGHT (GFS) OR THU (ECMWF) IS EXPECTED TO PUSH A
WEAK COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST THROUGH NC... BRINGING A TREND BACK DOWN
TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS LATE IN THE WEEK. WITH THE GFS AND
ECMWF ABOUT 12 HRS APART ON FRONTAL PASSAGE... IT`S TOUGH TO TELL
WHEN THE BEST FRONT-ASSOCIATED RAIN CHANCES WILL BE... SO WILL CARRY
CHANCE POPS WED NIGHT THROUGH THU... FOLLOWED BY LOWER CHANCES
FRI/SAT FIGURING THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE PUSHING IN FROM THE NNW.
THE 00Z/02 ECMWF TAKES THIS HIGH OFF THE MIDATLANTIC COAST SAT WHILE
WEDGING SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL/WRN NC WITH INCREASING OVERRUNNING
AND SUGGESTIONS OF ANOTHER DAMMING EVENT NEXT WEEKEND... AND THE GFS
IS HINTING AT THIS AS WELL. WILL NOT DEPART TOO MUCH FROM
CLIMATOLOGY THIS FAR OUT... BUT STAY TUNED... AS WE COULD SEE
COOLER/WETTER WEATHER NEXT WEEKEND
. -GIH
 

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Haven't had an above normal day in temps since July 14.  This is based on an interpolation of historical data for two airports which are equidistant from me (Statesville and Concord) and comparing it to my PWS data.

 

l2Fw8Ly.png

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