dsaur Posted July 30, 2014 Share Posted July 30, 2014 Nice post Marion. I actually feel good about this upcoming pattern. Its also the start of a new month. Forget this disaster of a July. Even the GFS is showing my backyard some love with the bullseye over my backyard. YOu are still in Ga. aren't you? So....no rain for you If you look back west you can see the rain shield is already thinking ahead about falling apart as it approaches Ga. Ala will see nice rain, and the Carolina's, but we live in the cursed lands, and as Cory says, these are the dry months coming. Best be hoping that invest becomes a storm and it heads right for you, lol. Remember Newton's Law, or Muffin's Law, or somebody's law...."if it can miss us, it will miss us". What you want is a hurricane going over you, or a cut off low hanging around over you, or best yet, a Gom low, slow moving with a great tap, passing just to your north, or south, or anywhere near you, lol. Ok, sorry, just picking at you You'll see more rain that you have...how about that for a prediction! It's hard to do worse than nothing, lol. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted July 30, 2014 Share Posted July 30, 2014 We really don't need this here in the east wish we could pass on this one......ditches still holding water from the rain last Thursday, that's how saturated the ground is here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted July 31, 2014 Share Posted July 31, 2014 Looking forward to some wet weather for a little while. Hopefully that bermuda high will retrograde by mid August to dry out for a bit while beaching it during the first shoulder week when kids are going back to school and the crowds thin out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxJordan Posted July 31, 2014 Share Posted July 31, 2014 The NAM is showing very high rain totals right along the North and South Carolina border. This should be correct due to southeast flow; however, the important thing to note is the widespread 1-2 inches of rain from roughly I-95 westward through Sunday morning. The southeast flow should help to develop showers and thunderstorms, and some of these storms could produce very heavy rain. A limiting factor may be instability, as there will be a slight northerly wind at the surface and very thick cloud cover, preventing any major daytime heating. But with the large scale 500 mb trough and the shortwave moving into the southeast, I see enough of a trigger to warrant 50-70% chances of rain both Friday and Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted July 31, 2014 Share Posted July 31, 2014 For: Snowstorm, Mackrel, Brick, and Metal From: HPC (7 day rainfall accum) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted July 31, 2014 Share Posted July 31, 2014 Not looking forward to rain all weekend. It seems when we do get rain this summer it has to be flooding rain, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted July 31, 2014 Share Posted July 31, 2014 Very cool map, CR! U are the man! 2-3 inches already, and the big wet was supposed to start tomorrow , lol!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted July 31, 2014 Share Posted July 31, 2014 For: Snowstorm, Mackrel, Brick, and MetalFrom: HPC (7 day rainfall accum) yep, that map pretty much summarizes this summer for my area. Congrats Carolina's and eastern ga. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted July 31, 2014 Share Posted July 31, 2014 yep, that map pretty much summarizes this summer for my area. Congrats Carolina's and eastern ga.Compare it to what it was showing yesterday, very disappointing. The models have been doing that all summer. Show lots of rain one day, then move it to the typical areas the next day. I don't even know why I was excited about the upcoming pattern.Dsaur, you were right on yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted July 31, 2014 Share Posted July 31, 2014 Compare it to what it was showing yesterday, very disappointing. The models have been doing that all summer. Show lots of rain one day, then move it to the typical areas the next day. I don't even know why I was excited about the upcoming pattern. Dsaur, you were right on yesterday. Yep, every "wet pattern" we've had has done nothing here. I'm not expecting a single drop of rain. The drought continues. Oh, btw, some areas of south ga and central al are now officially in a moderate drought. If we don't get rain soon, I can see the second half of august being very hot and dry. Maybe 100+. When you have a very dry ground it's a lot easier to get extreme temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted July 31, 2014 Author Share Posted July 31, 2014 Southeast flow already hard at work...Flash Flood Watches out for the Western Carolinas! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted July 31, 2014 Share Posted July 31, 2014 Yep, every "wet pattern" we've had has done nothing here. I'm not expecting a single drop of rain. The drought continues. Oh, btw, some areas of south ga and central al are now officially in a moderate drought. If we don't get rain soon, I can see the second half of august being very hot and dry. Maybe 100+. When you have a very dry ground it's a lot easier to get extreme temps.Yep that's us in the moderate drought now. I know what you mean by the very dry ground making it easier to get extreme temps because that just happened here. We hit 102 degrees a couple of days ago along with an overnight low of 81. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted July 31, 2014 Share Posted July 31, 2014 Flash flood warnings here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted July 31, 2014 Share Posted July 31, 2014 For: Snowstorm, Mackrel, Brick, and Metal From: HPC (7 day rainfall accum) I'm right in the middle of the drier polyp hanging down in the NC piedmont. No mention of "heavy rain" in my forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted July 31, 2014 Share Posted July 31, 2014 The rain and storms have been very isolated all summer. Either you get nothing, or you get a ton at once. Feast or famine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted July 31, 2014 Share Posted July 31, 2014 I'm right in the middle of the drier polyp hanging down in the NC piedmont. No mention of "heavy rain" in my forecast. I'll include you on tomorrow's map. Hopefully the polyp will have moved! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted July 31, 2014 Share Posted July 31, 2014 I'll include you on tomorrow's map. Hopefully the polyp will have moved! lol Thanks. Beats a colonoscopy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted July 31, 2014 Share Posted July 31, 2014 lol Thanks. Beats a colonoscopy. Ha! It sure does. But you have to admit that the prep solution you have to drink is pretty refreshing, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted July 31, 2014 Share Posted July 31, 2014 Compare it to what it was showing yesterday, very disappointing. The models have been doing that all summer. Show lots of rain one day, then move it to the typical areas the next day. I don't even know why I was excited about the upcoming pattern. Dsaur, you were right on yesterday. Sorry, man, just keeping it real Keep an eye on those waves way out there, as that might be Ga's only salvation for something widespread...unless we get that slow Gom low. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted July 31, 2014 Share Posted July 31, 2014 For: Snowstorm, Mackrel, Brick, and Metal From: HPC (7 day rainfall accum) Very nice rainfall minimum over MBY. Awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted August 1, 2014 Share Posted August 1, 2014 Snowstorm, Mack, Brick, and Burns ought to be getting rain right now. Sorry Metal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted August 1, 2014 Share Posted August 1, 2014 Snowstorm, Mack, Brick, and Burns ought to be getting rain right now. Sorry Metal. we had a few sprinkles lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted August 1, 2014 Share Posted August 1, 2014 Snowstorm, Mack, Brick, and Burns ought to be getting rain right now. Sorry Metal. I am approaching 4 inches of rain since 7 AM!I won't complain anymore until we get our first cold rain instead of snow event this winter! This rain is just non stop! Today rivals the best events we had so often last summer! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfide Posted August 1, 2014 Share Posted August 1, 2014 Witnessed low level moisture backing in from the southeast this afternoon, while southwest flow aloft was keeping things moist up top. Interesting pattern. Wonder if it holds into tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted August 1, 2014 Share Posted August 1, 2014 I am approaching 4 inches of rain since 7 AM! I won't complain anymore until we get our first cold rain instead of snow event this winter! This rain is just non stop! Today rivals the best events we had so often last summer! Only .28" so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted August 1, 2014 Share Posted August 1, 2014 Only .28" so far.That's more than I got all of July. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted August 1, 2014 Share Posted August 1, 2014 Gaston County already has over 3.5 inches of rain. Meanwhile.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted August 1, 2014 Author Share Posted August 1, 2014 Congrats to the Upstate in South Carolina...big winners on this rainfall event. I-85 is the hot zone to where all this southeast flow has maxed out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted August 1, 2014 Share Posted August 1, 2014 For: Brick, Burns (polyped again...sorry man), Snowstorm, Mack, and Metal From: HPC (7 day precip accums) Off the complaint list: Brick and Mack. Everyone else, fire away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted August 1, 2014 Share Posted August 1, 2014 They might need to reverse the colors in that map for NC. All the heavy rain is out in the western part of the state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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