dsaur Posted July 28, 2014 Share Posted July 28, 2014 What an incredibly dry July it has been. Birmingham is on pace to have the 2nd driest July on record !! What is the cause of this dry weather ? Judging by what I've been reading on these forums it's been an incredibly wet summer. Am I missing something ? Yeah, like me you've been missing the rain You can see heaping helpings of it just to your north, south, east or west, but when it gets to you the derainilizers zap it, and it goes poof. Though, for me, the nekked dancing, mole shaming, and general desertification of the area, have brought about more rain in the last week, or so, than has fallen in here in months. I think I'm up to about 1.5, but I haven't been able to keep track closely. I know my dead garden only looks half dead now, but I still don't have to cut the grass yet Tony Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted July 28, 2014 Share Posted July 28, 2014 There is likely to be a whole slew of record lows set over the next couple of days in the southeast. Where is the excitement? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted July 28, 2014 Share Posted July 28, 2014 Count me among those anxiously awaiting the upcoming weather. My GSP forecast has north Hickory with highs in the upper 70s for tomorrow through Sunday! That is phenomenal for the end of July and beginning of August! Lows in the 50s too. Perhaps this will be the beginning of a climatological change: The new normal in Hickory for July and August will be upper 70s. I could live with that... I'm currently in Little Rock, Arkansas, for a family wedding, sweating in the heat and humidity. Near 100 yesterday. Above 100 when my family was in Memphis on Saturday at the zoo. (BTW, I highly recommend the Memphis Zoo, for those who have never been before.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted July 28, 2014 Share Posted July 28, 2014 GSP Discussion... THE MAIN STORY FOR MID-TO-LATE WEEK WILL BE THEABNORMALLY DEEP UPPER TROF OVER THE EAST. THE UPPER TROF BOTTOMS OUTWITH 500 MB HEIGHT VALUES MORE THAN 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOWNORMAL ON WEDNESDAY MORNING CENTERED OVER NC. THE CONTINENTALSURFACE HIGH MOVING IN BEHIND THE TROF IS NOT ESPECIALLY STRONG...BUT THICKNESS VALUES WILL BE SUCH THAT TEMPS WILL BE ON THE ORDER OFTEN DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TOWHAT IS NORMAL FOR THE LAST DAY OF SUMMER...AND WITH THE DRYNESS OFTHE AIR MASS...IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE EARLY AUTUMN BOTH WEDNESDAYAND THURSDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted July 28, 2014 Share Posted July 28, 2014 And Raleigh is talking another possible summer CAD event THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR WEAK COLD AIR DAMMING AS THE UPPERLEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE CONFLUENT OVER NEW ENGLAND AND A WEAK RIDGEOF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. NOTSURPRISINGLY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW NOW SIGN OF LOW CLOUDS ATTHIS POINT...AND ITS HARD TO TELL HOW MUCH IMPACT THERE WOULD BE.GIVEN THIS AND A GENERAL INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...HIGHS WILL REMAINONE OR TWO CATEGORIES BELOW NORMAL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim Posted July 29, 2014 Share Posted July 29, 2014 ..you guys concerned about 93L??..us long islanders are headed to corolla,OBX starting sat aug 2..it raised my eyebrows,thats for sure ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted July 29, 2014 Author Share Posted July 29, 2014 GFS really throwing out a strong signal of another big soaker for the Mid South/Southeast this weekend...very similar to 2 weekends ago. I will post some additional info on this later... Looks like our retrograde of the big trough is in order. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted July 29, 2014 Share Posted July 29, 2014 ..you guys concerned about 93L??..us long islanders are headed to corolla,OBX starting sat aug 2..it raised my eyebrows,thats for sure ! If it were to come here it would take it at least 10 days to get here so I wouldnt worry to much.....the overall set up could get it in the right part of the SW ATL to make it a issue for the SE coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted July 29, 2014 Author Share Posted July 29, 2014 For those in Georgia and the Carolinas...better take advantage of the next 3 days because rapid changes will probably occur by the weekend...GFS is getting on board with an event with a lot of similarities to the soaking rain of 2 weeks ago...and the same general areas could be targeted again... We are going to have a strong vort in the mid and upper levels dive down from the Rockies and push across the Southern Plains/Red River Valley region by Thursday... The GFS is shearing out the 500mb vort again too quickly...which is a known bias of the model. Regardless, by Friday we are going to have SW flow at 500/700mb flow and from 850 down the surface, the flow is going to shift to Southeast as high pressure will be departing the Mid-Atlantic Coastline... I look for conditions to go downhill across the interior southeast on Friday and into Saturday... Northern AL and North GA will benefit with Upstate SC and Western North Carolina getting a little Southeast Upslope flow... Also like last time, the flow may allow everything to come in a little faster than the models indicate...but it could also linger for a while...truly a lot of similarities with this event and the one we just had. Early Thursday Morning...upper vort slides east across Red River Basin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted July 29, 2014 Author Share Posted July 29, 2014 Early Friday Morning Maps (700/850/925 mb) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted July 29, 2014 Share Posted July 29, 2014 This look for late July is a keeper... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted July 29, 2014 Author Share Posted July 29, 2014 Some things are starting to line up that will make the next 7-10 days interesting across the Southeast US and East Coast... Invest 93L is going to become Bertha fairly soon and with each global and tropical model run, it keeps trending west... That...plus what's going on inland should keep this board pretty active in the near future... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted July 29, 2014 Share Posted July 29, 2014 Thanks for the thoughts, Marion. I always enjoy reading your analysis. The overnight model suite really has an unsettled look to it, as you pointed out, starting as early as 60 hrs in portions of the SE (depending on which model you want to look at). I think the odds favor a recurve with any TC that might be out there, but all of the models leave troughing or a weakness over the south and east through the period. In fact, if the CMC is correct, some areas will have to deal with flooding, not even counting any TC that would be in the mix. And again, NO BIG HEAT anywhere in sight! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted July 30, 2014 Author Share Posted July 30, 2014 It's way too late in the night to write up some thoughts but tomorrow I will share some ideas on what looks like a very active start to the month of August...The moisture content on the GFS is off the charts for next week...stay tuned! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted July 30, 2014 Share Posted July 30, 2014 It's way too late in the night to write up some thoughts but tomorrow I will share some ideas on what looks like a very active start to the month of August... The moisture content on the GFS is off the charts for next week...stay tuned! See, what you need to do is go to bed around 10 so you can get up around 5 or 6 and have a nice write-up waiting for us to enjoy along with our coffee. Not to steal your thunder, but both the 0z and 6z GFS, along with the Euro and CMC show troughing in a good location for moisture return and perturbations tracking through the SE. Definitely looking unsettled. Still looking unlikely for the SE to be impacted by any TC. And still no big heat in sight! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted July 30, 2014 Share Posted July 30, 2014 See, what you need to do is go to bed around 10 so you can get up around 5 or 6 and have a nice write-up waiting for us to enjoy along with our coffee. Not to steal your thunder, but both the 0z and 6z GFS, along with the Euro and CMC show troughing in a good location for moisture return and perturbations tracking through the SE. Definitely looking unsettled. Still looking unlikely for the SE to be impacted by any TC. And still no big heat in sight! Dang, CR, you made me get out the dictionary (the online version, of course). There is definitely a lot of anxiety and mental uneasiness in this forum regarding rainfall amounts and storminess, or lack thereof. Wait, did you mean the second definition? Oh, I guess that makes more sense, but I prefer the former definition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted July 30, 2014 Share Posted July 30, 2014 Dang, CR, you made me get out the dictionary (the online version, of course). There is definitely a lot of anxiety and mental uneasiness in this forum regarding rainfall amounts and storminess, or lack thereof. Wait, did you mean the second definition? Oh, I guess that makes more sense, but I prefer the former definition. Haha! Both could work. I had to look it up too...to make sure I spelled it correctly! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted July 30, 2014 Author Share Posted July 30, 2014 See, what you need to do is go to bed around 10 so you can get up around 5 or 6 and have a nice write-up waiting for us to enjoy along with our coffee. Not to steal your thunder, but both the 0z and 6z GFS, along with the Euro and CMC show troughing in a good location for moisture return and perturbations tracking through the SE. Definitely looking unsettled. Still looking unlikely for the SE to be impacted by any TC. And still no big heat in sight! Yeah, I pretty much lost a night's worth of sleep. Stayed up to watch the Braves/Dodgers 4 hour marathon in Los Angeles and couldn't fall asleep after it... Anyways...back to my tease from last night. The GFS is showing its strongest Bermuda High signal of the entire summer starting this weekend loaded with available tropical moisture. As we have been seeing on the models for several days now our 500mb trough is definitely setting up in a position to where a majority of the southeast will be in SW flow at that level...the 0z run in particular puts the base of that trough across the Northern Gulf Coast states and keeps it there from roughly Saturday until about Wednesday before the trough axis beings to along the spine the Apps...by that point the flow will begin to relax for AL, GA, TN but will continue to be favorable for Central and Eastern Carolinas...it may be not until after Day 8 before the trough lifts off the coastline. The 500mb flow itself is supportive of at least average convective chances as there will be a few s/w in that trough that will work as the trigger...a pretty sharp cyclonic flow forms on the base of the trough Days 5-7...which will be more than enough to spark off activity on those days... As you can see the trough combined with a Western Atlantic Ridge will create a good moist flow at the upper levels...but what's showing up at the lower levels is the thing that got my attention. The flow at 850mb down to near the surface will start to veer to the southeast and south as soon as Friday because of the Bermuda High and a weak upper low that will develop this weekend along the Gulf Coast Region...the two will combine to send a deep southeast flow into the Southeast... by the time we get to early next week pretty much everyone along and east of the Apps will be entrenched in precipitable water values in excess of 2 inches...the excessive amount of water content combined with the flow at 500mb is going to result in a lot of thunderstorm activity across a large portion of the southeast. Other mesoscale effects such as sea breeze, outflow boundaries and upslope flow is going to help focus rainfall even more in localized areas... Day 5... Day 6... Model QPF output has responded quite well as it paints a maximum along the Southeast Coastline and another just east of the Apps due to the southeast flow against the higher terrain...I would look for these totals to increase in future runs as long as we have pattern depicted... This setup is going to be the strongest of the summer for this part of the country and will be one that gets August off to an active start...fortunately any tropical development would be deflected away from the Southeast with this kind of pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NattyBo Posted July 30, 2014 Share Posted July 30, 2014 *snip* So basically...should I expect a rainout all next week during our Crystal Coast vacation starting on Sunday? :( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted July 30, 2014 Author Share Posted July 30, 2014 So basically...should I expect a rainout all next week during our Crystal Coast vacation starting on Sunday? :( I wouldn't call it a total rainout for next week...but there will be periods where the rain could be coming down in buckets... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NattyBo Posted July 30, 2014 Share Posted July 30, 2014 I wouldn't call it a total rainout for next week...but there will be periods where the rain could be coming down in buckets... Figures, wait all year and then... :-/ Thanks for the reply. Depressing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted July 30, 2014 Share Posted July 30, 2014 Nice post Marion. I actually feel good about this upcoming pattern. Its also the start of a new month. Forget this disaster of a July. Even the GFS is showing my backyard some love with the bullseye over my backyard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a5ehren Posted July 30, 2014 Share Posted July 30, 2014 Well I definitely enjoyed my 57 this morning when I put out the trash. Too bad it won't last Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted July 30, 2014 Share Posted July 30, 2014 Not holding my breath on getting any meaningful rain anytime soon. We are about to move into one of the driest periods of the year historically. After mid august, things usually dry out very quickly unless we get rains from a tropical disturbance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted July 30, 2014 Share Posted July 30, 2014 12z GFS brings the rain within 48 hours and basically keeps an unsettled pattern in place through the balance of the run. Even *gasp* Waycrossanites should benefit. The 12z CMC seems to have the trough axis/weakness slightly east and paints a bit lower QPF. Either way, normal to above normal convection chances look to be in the cards for the foreseeable future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted July 30, 2014 Share Posted July 30, 2014 12z GFS brings the rain within 48 hours and basically keeps an unsettled pattern in place through the balance of the run. Even *gasp* Waycrossanites should benefit. The 12z CMC seems to have the trough axis/weakness slightly east and paints a bit lower QPF. Either way, normal to above normal convection chances look to be in the cards for the foreseeable future. normal to above normal convection hasn't benefited a lot of areas so far this summer, so what makes this time any different ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted July 30, 2014 Share Posted July 30, 2014 normal to above normal convection hasn't benefited a lot of areas so far this summer, so what makes this time any different ? Normal to above normal griping hasn't resulted in rainfall either, though maybe it eventually will. I'm sure we'll find out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxJordan Posted July 30, 2014 Share Posted July 30, 2014 Very good post Marion! Just to piggy back on what he said, this will be a good chance for widespread showers and storms in the southeast. Personally, I am glad to see it as we have not had a tremendous amount of rain where I am this year. A good 2-3 inches is needed, and this type of pattern can deliver that and much more. Here is the post I just posted on my website about the upcoming event. I will also attach the link here to view it and other stories on my website: http://wxjordan.com/weather/discussions/360-rain-chances-increasing-over-southeast Southerly flow will bring increased moisture, and you guessed it, better chances of rain to the southeast United States. The upper level trough that is over us right now is moving westward, and this will allow the Bermuda high to push westward. In between the trough and the high, winds will turn and come from the south over the next seven days, bringing increased levels of moisture. The graphic below shows you the current position of the 500 mb trough and ridge. The yellows are the upper level trough, while the deep reds are the upper level ridge. The trough will be moving west over the next few days, which will help the ridge to move westward, bringing more moisture back into the southeast. With the increase in moisture and small disturbances rounding the base of the trough, expect elevated chances of showers and thunderstorms the next seven days. On Friday, the winds will come from the southeast, which will help to develop showers west of I-77. Rain is likely from Charlotte to Winston-Salem westward. Thunderstorms are possible, and if storms do develop, flooding may become an issue. The 850 mb wind map shows the winds coming from the southeast with moisture pilling up against the Blue Ridge. With the high level of precipitable water in the atmosphere, you can expect heavy downpours in thunderstorms. Showers and storms will be possible any time on Friday with the weak upper level energy and the southeast flow. The best chance is in the mountains, where the chance of rain will be 60-70%. East of I-77, expect a 50-60% chance of rain. By Saturday, the winds will have veered and will be coming from the south and southwest. This will increase moisture flow into the southeast, and will help to develop afternoon showers and thunderstorms for the remainder of the weekend and into early next week. A widespread 1-2 inches of rain is possible through next Wednesday, with many areas likely seeing the chance of 2-3 inches. Flash flooding could become a concern if the storms begin to train and move over the same areas. Below is the 12z GFS Ensemble for the next seven days. The GFS Ensemble is showing over 1.75 inches of rain across a good expanse of the state, with higher amounts in the mountains. For the mountains, I am forecasting 2-3 inches of rain with higher amounts in the favored upslope areas. Everyone else will likely see 1-2 inches of rain with higher amounts likely where thunderstorms develop. It is hard to pin point where this will occur, but some areas could receive 4-6 inches of rain if the storms train over the same area through Wednesday. So, if you are making plans for this weekend, be sure to plan for the elevated chance of rain. Both Saturday and Sunday features at least a 40% chance of rain across the southeast, with higher chances in the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted July 30, 2014 Author Share Posted July 30, 2014 Very good post Marion! Just to piggy back on what he said, this will be a good chance for widespread showers and storms in the southeast. Personally, I am glad to see it as we have not had a tremendous amount of rain where I am this year. A good 2-3 inches is needed, and this type of pattern can deliver that and much more. thanks!...this summer has provided numerous upslope events where Western and Northern McDowell and Northern Burke has picked up several inches due to nocturnal thunderstorm development where as East Burke and into Catawba has been relatively dry. Same goes for the 74 Corridor as well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted July 30, 2014 Share Posted July 30, 2014 thanks!...this summer has provided numerous upslope events where Western and Northern McDowell and Northern Burke has picked up several inches due to nocturnal thunderstorm development where as East Burke and into Catawba has been relatively dry. Same goes for the 74 Corridor as well... How well do I know this statement! You speak the truth, sir. Time for an updated precipitation map. Here are the rainfall totals over the last 60 days. You can see that eastern Burke County together with Catawba County have been much drier than McDowell County and western Burke County, just as you stated. It appears that west Lincoln County and west Gaston County are actually doing worse, though. The Winston-Salem/Greensboro area is also very dry, comparatively. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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