griteater Posted July 24, 2014 Share Posted July 24, 2014 ..hi guys..hoping for a little long range forecast for OBX..20 of us from Long Island,NY coming down aug1-aug8.. ..the tropics look pretty quiet..any info much appreciated..thanks. tim - I'll give it a shot...based on GFS and Euro Ensemble, it looks there will be a weak longwave trough or weakness centered through the Mississippi or Tennessee Valley during at least the start of that timeframe. So, broad brush, probably looking at temperatures that are near to slightly below normal, and precipitation that is near to above normal....fairly humid too. Checkout the NOAA long range outlooks and discussions as well...those are good. Enjoy, that's a special place out there. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/index.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted July 24, 2014 Share Posted July 24, 2014 It's funny how I can tolerate heat better in August than in June or July. I guess it's a mental thing, knowing that fall is so close and football season is upon us that makes August heat a little easier to tolerate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted July 24, 2014 Share Posted July 24, 2014 It's funny how I can tolerate heat better in August than in June or July. I guess it's a mental thing, knowing that fall is so close and football season is upon us that makes August heat a little easier to tolerate. Blood gets thinner by then .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxJordan Posted July 25, 2014 Share Posted July 25, 2014 Widespread showers and thunderstorms moved across the Carolinas and Virginia today, prompting severe thunderstorm warnings and providing very heavy rain to many locations. But outside of one good chance for rain, the next five to seven days look dry, and a major cool down is coming! Friday and the WeekendThe front passing across the mountains Thursday night will push off the coast on Friday. A few showers and storms are possible along and east of I-95, but I suspect many areas will avoid showers and storms west of I-95. Temperatures will be around 3-5 degrees below average for late July. Overall, it will be a pleasant end to the work week. Saturday and Sunday will be hot. Temperatures will soar into the 90s outside the mountains, with a few areas in the piedmont and coastal plain climbing into the upper 90s. Most areas will see abundant sunshine both days, with a 30% chance of storms in the mountains of North Carolina and Virginia on Sunday. The humidity will also begin to increase ahead of our next upper level trough that is going to bring a major cool down next week. The Cold FrontA cold front will sweep across the southeast on Monday. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop and move east quickly ahead of the front. Upper level energy will be diving in from the Great Lakes, a pattern which we would expect to see in the winter. Energy and moisture levels will be high, so I do expect the chance of severe weather once again. While the storms may not be as widespread as today, plan on a 40-50% chance of storms with the frontal passage on Monday. The NAM model shows showers and storms all across the Carolinas Monday evening. While I believe the NAM may be showing too many showers and storms, it has the right idea. Notice where the model shows a lack of storms... in the lee of the mountains. Many areas in Virginia and western North Carolina just east of the mountains will not see widespread thunderstorms from this frontal passage due to northwest flow. The air runs over the side of the mountains and dries, which is not good for thunderstorm development in the southeast. By Tuesday morning, the showers and storms will be off the coast and you will notice the air mass change. A Taste of FallYes, it will feel more like September than July in the southeast next week. Those pool temperatures will plummet once again as a cool and dry air mass invades Virginia, the Carolinas, and Georgia. The map above is the GFS Ensemble 500 mb height anomaly for Tuesday. The map below you shows you what I want you to notice.... The upper level ridge stretches up the west coast and another ridge of high pressure is just off the east coast. This is going to help another large scale trough to dig into the eastern United States. Under this area of low pressure, you can expect cooler and drier air. Take a look at these temperature anomalies shown on the GFS Ensemble. In the center of the country, temperatures may be 10-20 degrees below average. Here in the eastern United States, temperatures of 5-10 degrees below average is possible. A very pleasant air mass for this time of year. We will remain under the influence of this large scale upper level trough for the next week. During this time, the trough will begin to pull northward and then reform further westward, which will allow pieces of energy to rotate in from the Pacific Northwest from the area of low pressure off the coast of Alaska. The result will be a dry pattern through next Thursday. A few pop up showers and storms are possible each afternoon, but the majority of these pop ups will be confined to the mountains. It will take until Friday (August 1st) before winds will begin to turn from the southwest aloft (instead of the west and northwest as shown in the picture above). The GFS and EURO begins to retrograde the upper level trough towards the center of the country on August 1st, so expect moisture to begin to increase and the chances of storms. What remains to be seen is if the winds will come from the southeast, similar to what occurred last time we had a large scale upper level trough last week. If high pressure can position itself correctly, we may see another cold air damming episode late next week or next weekend; however, that is pure speculation at the moment. Regardless, the GFS ensembles do point to better chances of rain by Friday and the weekend. What is more amazing is the GFS and EURO holds an upper level trough into the first week of August. This will help to keep major heat waves at bay for the foreseeable future, and there could be the chance of retrograding flow at some point bringing much needed rain to the lee area of the mountains (western piedmont of the Carolinas and Virginia). I will continue to watch this pattern and post updates on the weather here at WxJordan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted July 25, 2014 Share Posted July 25, 2014 Good write-up, Jordan. Thanks for sharing your thoughts. Looking at the overnight models, looks like we have a chance for rain with the next front, though as you said, not as widespread. After that, it looks normal to below temp-wise and rather boring. Rain chances might increase as moisture return gets established, but none of the models are very excited about copious rainfall amounts in the foreseeable future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted July 25, 2014 Share Posted July 25, 2014 Yeah guys, all 3 models are doing the retro trough dance move, so I'd think that rain chances go up by late next weekend, possibly substantially so. We would go from unseasonably dry dewpoints midweek to the more normal high dewpoints by late next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted July 25, 2014 Share Posted July 25, 2014 This cool down next week looks a little cooler than the 4th of July " outbreak" of the polar vortex Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted July 25, 2014 Share Posted July 25, 2014 This cool down next week looks a little cooler than the 4th of July " outbreak" of the polar vortex I'll bet it loses some if it's "ferocity" as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted July 25, 2014 Share Posted July 25, 2014 BTW, the 12z GFS is still pretty unimpressed with precip amounts through 192, even though the trough appears to be in a pretty decent location. Of course, after truncation, it goes bonkers. Still not showing any big heat, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted July 25, 2014 Share Posted July 25, 2014 I'll bet it loses some if it's "ferocity" as we get closer. dont forget sun angle! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted July 25, 2014 Share Posted July 25, 2014 I'll bet it loses some if it's "ferocity" as we get closer. The models are most likely underestimating the weight of the cold! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted July 25, 2014 Share Posted July 25, 2014 CMC for next Friday. Is that the rain/snow line in south Georgia? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted July 25, 2014 Share Posted July 25, 2014 dont forget sun angle! The models are most likely underestimating the weight of the cold! CMC for next Friday. Is that the rain/snow line in south Georgia? Haha! Don't get used to that; it'll move north in time for winter (except the sun angle -- that might stay in our favor). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted July 25, 2014 Share Posted July 25, 2014 CMC for next Friday. Is that the rain/snow line in south Georgia? It would be cool if the 570 dam line became the new rain/snow line. The 540 line is too low for us! Don't worry, though. This winter we'll have that red L crossing Quebec and have that blue H out in the western Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted July 26, 2014 Share Posted July 26, 2014 Looks like next weekend is going to be a washout. Better enjoy this weekend outside, but it will be tough tomorrow with the temp in the upper 90s. Guess we have to take the good with the bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted July 26, 2014 Share Posted July 26, 2014 Both the GFS and the Euro continue to retrograde troughing and even do a Marion and cut the base off next week. If true, that would be a favorable configuration for rain for many in the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted July 26, 2014 Author Share Posted July 26, 2014 Both the GFS and the Euro continue to retrograde troughing and even do a Marion and cut the base off next week. If true, that would be a favorable configuration for rain for many in the SE. Yeah, the GFS is now showing the evolution of that in the day 6-8 range, I was waiting for that to appear pre-truncation before getting really excited...odds are going up that we go from very nice weather to unsettled in a hurry... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted July 26, 2014 Share Posted July 26, 2014 CMC for next Friday. Is that the rain/snow line in south Georgia? Check this out. The gfs has been advertising for a few runs now of 30s for lows in west virginia wed morning. Even as low as 35. Pretty good bit of real estate with lows in the 40s outside the mountains from ky/va northward. That is pretty incredible for late july. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted July 26, 2014 Share Posted July 26, 2014 Hope we get this pattern in the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted July 26, 2014 Share Posted July 26, 2014 My family a md I are heading tp Hilton Head Island on August 2-9. Will the damp rainy weather still be there for that week? I hope it will be sunny and hot. Any speculation? The Accuweather forecast says shoerss and periods of rain the whole week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted July 26, 2014 Share Posted July 26, 2014 My family a md I are heading tp Hilton Head Island on August 2-9. Will the damp rainy weather still be there for that week? I hope it will be sunny and hot. Any speculation? The Accuweather forecast says shoerss and periods of rain the whole week. You'll have to get in the ocean to dry off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted July 26, 2014 Share Posted July 26, 2014 Yeah, the weather for the week after next looks pretty chappy all week. Of course, that could change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted July 26, 2014 Share Posted July 26, 2014 I hope it does. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 Anxiously awaiting my bi-monthly rain coming this end of the week/ weekend! ): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 What an incredibly dry July it has been. Birmingham is on pace to have the 2nd driest July on record !! What is the cause of this dry weather ? Judging by what I've been reading on these forums it's been an incredibly wet summer. Am I missing something ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 What an incredibly dry July it has been. Birmingham is on pace to have the 2nd driest July on record !! What is the cause of this dry weather ? Judging by what I've been reading on these forums it's been an incredibly wet summer. Am I missing something ?The storms keep popping up in the exact same areas everyday making the rich richer. Then you have us who keep getting shafted constantly. This is going to be our driest July ever here with only 0.23. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 The storms keep popping up in the exact same areas everyday making the rich richer. Then you have us who keep getting shafted constantly. This is going to be our driest July ever here with only 0.23.This weekend coming up looks wet and another wedge looks to be setting up!Metal, if you keep getting shafted enough, eventually , you WILL get wet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 This weekend coming up looks wet and another wedge looks to be setting up! Metal, if you keep getting shafted enough, eventually , you WILL get wet! Even if only slipping off of the log on the way to the outhouse. Seriously though, 0.23 is an amazingly low total for July in SE Georgia. I've only had half my normal rainfall for July, but with the extended cloudy cool weather, it has at least been enough to keep things reasonably green. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted July 28, 2014 Share Posted July 28, 2014 What a muggy night last night. Those jonesin for some winter info, go check out the ENSO thread on the main weather page. Some good stuff there by our very own GAWX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted July 28, 2014 Share Posted July 28, 2014 Looks like we might have something to watch in the tropics later this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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