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June 2014 Obs and Disco


wxmeddler

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Good news is it shouldn't be a huge tropical year though I'd bet even in El Nino years we get some remnants pretty often. We're in a good spot for that overall. Of course at this rate we don't need much help. Weird to go into this time of year with such a surplus. Usually we're starting to Leesburg drought around now.

One of my neighbors trees fell on a still evening earlier this week. It was a pretty big tree and did some damage to other trees. The only thing unusual about the tree is that is was a leaner but otherwise healthy. Saturated ground underneath just gave up and let it go. It was really weird.

I'm a little concerned about the pattern repeating. It a lot tougher to get dry continental air masses to punch down here now that we're in mid June. There are hints of another closed ull crawling across the lakes next week. Too far out for specifics of course but there is a chance we get a redux of what we had this week.

And then there are the hints of something tropical forming east of FL. Even a slow moving TD with sw ul flow up the coast could be problematic. I don't see any signs of a prolonged dry spell for the next couple weeks.

The persistence forecast method for lr would also support continued AN precip.

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Where are you at? Their is a nice line forming just west of Baltimore. A good cell in the Hunt Valley-Jacksonville area right now

I'm at home in Parkton, so yeah they are too east unless they expand some as they move NE

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radar looks meh so maybe scud or innocuous but see remark

 

SPECI KBWI 131718Z 19008KT 8SM TS BKN027CB BKN110 BKN250 28/21 A2976 RMK AO2 TSB17 FRQ LTGCG NE TS NE AND MOV NE CB DSNT SW-N MOV E WALL CLOUD NE

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