EastCoast NPZ Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Yep heading out around July 12th.. Will be watching the weather back east but promise not to troll or post pictures of a massive snow pack. Happy 4th! Weather is certainly looking unusually beautiful on Friday. It will feel great after the next couple days of scorchers I know I wouldn't mind seeing those pics. You never know, around here pics might be the only snow pack we see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Very possible, but recall DCA hit 97 intra-hr during the last event, despite SE winds and cooler 850s. I could see 97-98 under ideal conditions, especially with SW winds this go around (not that I'm rooting for it, lol) Looks like after this 4 day stretch we get a break Yea, tomorrow or wed could scorch out. Tomorrow may be the better chance at cracking 95 because Wed may be affected by clouds during peak heating. Either way both days are going to be nasty to the touch. Saturday looks to be the star of the show for nice weather. Dews in the 50's and highs near 80 should feel pretty nice. Front slowed just enough and now our new friend Arthur seem to want to make Fri less than perfect but still a really nice day for the vast majority...hopefully. At the very least, firework weather looks fantastic with comfy air and NW breezes. The burners might get turned on next week but again it looks short lived on the means. GEFS and euro ens have been hinting at a ridge west/ trough east config down the road. Not high amplitude or anything but enough of a signal to guess that a real July heatwave isn't on the horizon yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Upper 90's might be tough. Short period of heat so we don't get the lows close to 80 leading into a sunny day. It's prime time climo though. If Wed stays sunny long enough before convection starts firing then maybe 96 or so in the uhi areas? IMHO- I doubt most of us will top 95 at best. Not a ripe heat setup even with toasty 850's. It will be a challenge IMO. I have a question though, why is RAP always too high with its temperatures, it had DC at 95 for a High today with a DP of 61. GFS/UKMET are the ones that are normally too low. Tomorrow I could see Lower 90s and possibly Mid 90s on Wednesday with enough sunshine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 I was thinking about the 97 & 95 days we had earlier this month so I checked climate data. My hunch was right and both days had a westerly wind component and relatively breezy. I think westerly winds are probably responsible for a lot of our surprise highs in general. With the surface flow to be mainly southerly the next couple days we won't get help from compressional heating. With the surface temps to the south mainly in the low to mid 90's I think it's going to be tough to break 95. Maybe isolated hotter spots but not widespread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 It will be a challenge IMO. I have a question though, why is RAP always too high with its temperatures, it had DC at 95 for a High today with a DP of 61. GFS/UKMET are the ones that are normally too low. Tomorrow I could see Lower 90s and possibly Mid 90s on Wednesday with enough sunshine. complicated issue, but the RAP has definitely had a very warm bias this spring/summer. One major contributing factor seems to be that V2 of the RAP switched from 6 soil levels to 9. The increased resolution means a thinner top layer, and it seems to be drying out too quickly. The PBL scheme also seems to be a player; it was tuned to really do well with low-level wind speeds that are critical to aviation interests, but it seems to mix too much, resulting in a boundary layer that is too deep and hot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 complicated issue, but the RAP has definitely had a very warm bias this spring/summer. One major contributing factor seems to be that V2 of the RAP switched from 6 soil levels to 9. The increased resolution means a thinner top layer, and it seems to be drying out too quickly. The PBL scheme also seems to be a player; it was tuned to really do well with low-level wind speeds that are critical to aviation interests, but it seems to mix too much, resulting in a boundary layer that is too deep and hot.Yeah, RAP is showing Upper 90s with some Lower 100s just west of DC while all the other models are showing Upper 80s to Lower 90s. I sense 91-93 today, HI 95-98 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 Ended June with 4.52 inches of rain and a temperature difference of +0.3 degrees. Records for the month included 2.21 inches of rain on 6/5 and a record low of 49 on 6/15 and a record high of 88 on 6/19. Records kept since 11/79. Currently running a -2.2 degrees below normal for the year as of 6/30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 DCA managed to finish the month below normal in precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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