AlaskaETC Posted June 26, 2014 Share Posted June 26, 2014 Euro ens and GEFS are becoming increasingly bullish on a solid below normal July 4th. We ridge out a little through wed-thurs and then an anomalous trough for this time of year moves in. Probably a strong frontal passage on thurs verbatim. If timing slows down or guidance is too amped then things obviously change but the signal keeps increasing for now. Low 80's on July 4th with low dews? Bring it! :clap: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted June 26, 2014 Share Posted June 26, 2014 The front and drier air apparently didn't make it here. Still have dews in the upper 60's across the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted June 26, 2014 Share Posted June 26, 2014 Euro ens and GEFS are becoming increasingly bullish on a solid below normal July 4th. We ridge out a little through wed-thurs and then an anomalous trough for this time of year moves in. Probably a strong frontal passage on thurs verbatim. If timing slows down or guidance is too amped then things obviously change but the signal keeps increasing for now. Low 80's on July 4th with low dews? Bring it! Fingers crossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted June 26, 2014 Share Posted June 26, 2014 Fingers crossed. 12z euro ens looked even better. We may have to worry about cold pool showers. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted June 26, 2014 Share Posted June 26, 2014 Perfection Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted June 27, 2014 Author Share Posted June 27, 2014 Perfection Snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted June 27, 2014 Share Posted June 27, 2014 Snow? Haha, Such a terrible color scale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted June 27, 2014 Share Posted June 27, 2014 Perfection 4thh5.JPG 4th850s.JPG Would be the best 4oJ in a long time. I'm getting in the grilling mood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted June 27, 2014 Share Posted June 27, 2014 Snow? 0-6" first call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted June 27, 2014 Share Posted June 27, 2014 Haha, Such a terrible color scale. Weeniebell rules Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted June 27, 2014 Share Posted June 27, 2014 Would be the best 4oJ in a long time. I'm getting in the grilling mood. The signal is there but timing is tricky. Odds of a couple really nice July days in a row seems to be increasing but could easily get pushed back. July 4th natural fireworks is a fair trade for sweat missiles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted June 27, 2014 Share Posted June 27, 2014 The signal is there but timing is tricky. Odds of a couple really nice July days in a row seems to be increasing but could easily get pushed back. July 4th natural fireworks is a fair trade for sweat missiles As long as those days happen before July 6, then i'll be happy. Leaving for vacation 7 - 18, so if there is going to be (and you know there will be) a death heat wave, let it be then.... I won't care so much if I'm on vaca while it happens. By the time I get back, 15 mins or so of daylight is gone, 1 week until avg temps start dropping, training camps are getting ready to open, and fall fever is going to start setting in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted June 27, 2014 Share Posted June 27, 2014 As long as those days happen before July 6, then i'll be happy. Leaving for vacation 7 - 18, so if there is going to be (and you know there will be) a death heat wave, let it be then.... I won't care so much if I'm on vaca while it happens. By the time I get back, 15 mins or so of daylight is gone, 1 week until avg temps start dropping, training camps are getting ready to open, and fall fever is going to start setting in.I'm just not seeing any signs of sustained heat anywhere. The only real anomalous weather I see on the horizon is a pretty cool airmass for July standards. Global ops and ens are in complete agreement for the 4th now. Cool dry Canadian air. Looks warm tues-thurs in front of the trough but not abnormally hot. Low 90's would be my wag. Then blue skies and low dews for 2-3 days. Pattern beyond looks like pretty tame and boring summer stuff but it's too far out to give much thought too. I'm really stoked about next weekend. Could be windows open at night kinda of stuff if it all comes together. Windows open in July is always a special and typically rare treat around here. You may even get cold at night our your way. HA! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted June 27, 2014 Author Share Posted June 27, 2014 I just got fronted in my back door. 76/69, NE @ 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted June 27, 2014 Share Posted June 27, 2014 I just got fronted in my back door. 76/69, NE @ 6 perv Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted June 27, 2014 Author Share Posted June 27, 2014 perv It's coming for you too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted June 27, 2014 Share Posted June 27, 2014 As long as those days happen before July 6, then i'll be happy. Leaving for vacation 7 - 18, so if there is going to be (and you know there will be) a death heat wave, let it be then.... I won't care so much if I'm on vaca while it happens. By the time I get back, 15 mins or so of daylight is gone, 1 week until avg temps start dropping, training camps are getting ready to open, and fall fever is going to start setting in. Ha, I'm leaving July 6th too. Where are you heading? Hopefully the forecast EML potential on the EPS for July 5-17 busts..I tend to miss the best severe around here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted June 27, 2014 Share Posted June 27, 2014 Ha, I'm leaving July 6th too. Where are you heading? Hopefully the forecast EML potential on the EPS for July 5-17 busts..I tend to miss the best severe around here Smith Mountain Lake for a week, and then a week in Lynchburg. The wife has back-to-back 1 week intensives for her Master's program at Liberty U. She'll have to commute to Lynchburg from SML for a week, but the next week we're at a hotel in Lynchburg. Not the best of vacas, but it'll have to do this year. Really sucks for her that she'll be in class all day each day. It'll be good time spent with the little one for me. Last year I was lucky enough to see fireworks and natural fireworks at the same time. A beautiful storm was producing cc and took turns with the other fireworks display. Perfection. Time flies. I love summer, but if losing it means we're closer to football season then bye bye summer. Really liking the look next week. Hope it holds. No one wants to see heat injuries on the mall. I likey. I'm just not seeing any signs of sustained heat anywhere. The only real anomalous weather I see on the horizon is a pretty cool airmass for July standards. Global ops and ens are in complete agreement for the 4th now. Cool dry Canadian air. Looks warm tues-thurs in front of the trough but not abnormally hot. Low 90's would be my wag. Then blue skies and low dews for 2-3 days. Pattern beyond looks like pretty tame and boring summer stuff but it's too far out to give much thought too. I'm really stoked about next weekend. Could be windows open at night kinda of stuff if it all comes together. Windows open in July is always a special and typically rare treat around here. You may even get cold at night our your way. HA! Tone it down, Bob. You're getting me too excited! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted June 27, 2014 Share Posted June 27, 2014 12Z Euro/Ens say we get a perfectly timed cool shot around 4th of July, sandwiched by 95F+ death. Some ensemble members definitely diverge from OP/Ctrl runs, popping a ridge in the west.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted June 28, 2014 Author Share Posted June 28, 2014 Flash flood situation occurring on the blue ridge down near Charlottesville. ~7" estimated by radar over one area. Easterly moist winds upsloping the moisture above the inversion into slightly unstable mid-levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snownut Posted June 29, 2014 Share Posted June 29, 2014 As long as those days happen before July 6, then i'll be happy. Leaving for vacation 7 - 18, so if there is going to be (and you know there will be) a death heat wave, let it be then.... I won't care so much if I'm on vaca while it happens. By the time I get back, 15 mins or so of daylight is gone, 1 week until avg temps start dropping, training camps are getting ready to open, and fall fever is going to start setting in. Hope this year has best 4th of July weather ever since it will be my last one here. Leaving on my permanant vacation from east coast weather in 2 weeks. Have family and many friends here on the east coast so I will still be watching and reading this forum from time to time. Best wishes for a record breaking 2014-2015 winter ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted June 29, 2014 Share Posted June 29, 2014 Hope this year has best 4th of July weather ever since it will be my last one here. Leaving on my permanant vacation from east coast weather in 2 weeks. Have family and many friends here on the east coast so I will still be watching and reading this forum from time to time. Best wishes for a record breaking 2014-2015 winter !Best of luck with the move, Duane. Will miss your reports from SW of me when I'm impatiently waiting for snow to start. The weekends this spring and early summer have been spectacular. After so many snowy weekends in the winter, I have enjoyed 2014's weather at home as much as any year since moving to WV in '06. Legit cold in Jan., 200% of normal snowfall, a wet May-Jun capped off by an impressive localized flash flood event, and the lack of early high heat. Hope the second half holds as much promise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted June 29, 2014 Share Posted June 29, 2014 Pretty awesome day, especially for June 29. Went to the pool, and if you were wet when the wind blew, it was cool enough to feel a little chill. Great weather! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Hope this year has best 4th of July weather ever since it will be my last one here. Leaving on my permanant vacation from east coast weather in 2 weeks. Have family and many friends here on the east coast so I will still be watching and reading this forum from time to time. Best wishes for a record breaking 2014-2015 winter ! Nice. Where are you heading? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 18z GFS puts us under 21-22C 850s Tues-Wed. Upper 90s? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 18z GFS folds, and I thought the Euro was on crack with it's subtropical storm missing New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Hope this year has best 4th of July weather ever since it will be my last one here. Leaving on my permanant vacation from east coast weather in 2 weeks. Have family and many friends here on the east coast so I will still be watching and reading this forum from time to time. Best wishes for a record breaking 2014-2015 winter ! Are you making that move westward you've talked about? I'm jelly. Best of luck to you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 18z GFS puts us under 21-22C 850s Tues-Wed. Upper 90s?Upper 90's might be tough. Short period of heat so we don't get the lows close to 80 leading into a sunny day. It's prime time climo though. If Wed stays sunny long enough before convection starts firing then maybe 96 or so in the uhi areas?IMHO- I doubt most of us will top 95 at best. Not a ripe heat setup even with toasty 850's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Upper 90's might be tough. Short period of heat so we don't get the lows close to 80 leading into a sunny day. It's prime time climo though. If Wed stays sunny long enough before convection starts firing then maybe 96 or so in the uhi areas? IMHO- I doubt most of us will top 95 at best. Not a ripe heat setup even with toasty 850's. Very possible, but recall DCA hit 97 intra-hr during the last event, despite SE winds and cooler 850s. I could see 97-98 under ideal conditions, especially with SW winds this go around (not that I'm rooting for it, lol) Looks like after this 4 day stretch we get a break Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snownut Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Are you making that move westward you've talked about? I'm jelly. Best of luck to you. Yep heading out around July 12th.. Will be watching the weather back east but promise not to troll or post pictures of a massive snow pack. Happy 4th! Weather is certainly looking unusually beautiful on Friday. It will feel great after the next couple days of scorchers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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