snowfan Posted June 21, 2014 Share Posted June 21, 2014 Might be able to pull out a nice sunset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted June 21, 2014 Share Posted June 21, 2014 stubborn arse clouds. Clearing not that far north and south of the area. Blah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted June 22, 2014 Share Posted June 22, 2014 The sun never come out, even for a second today. Very rare for a summer day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted June 22, 2014 Share Posted June 22, 2014 Clouds really overwhelmed prime time of year sun, maximum afternoon radiant temp was 74.7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted June 22, 2014 Share Posted June 22, 2014 Didn't expect showers overnight. Need to cut the grass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted June 23, 2014 Share Posted June 23, 2014 Bottle up the weather from yesterday and what is ahead today and I'll take it through August. Perfect outside. And did I read correctly that we can expect another CAPE Wednesday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted June 23, 2014 Share Posted June 23, 2014 Beautiful morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted June 23, 2014 Share Posted June 23, 2014 There's a chance we don't hit 90 for the rest of the month. If we do, it may only be localized and the typical warmer areas. July is still looking really tame to start. Good met summer so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted June 23, 2014 Share Posted June 23, 2014 There's a chance we don't hit 90 for the rest of the month. If we do, it may only be localized and the typical warmer areas. July is still looking really tame to start. Good met summer so far. No heat wave? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted June 23, 2014 Share Posted June 23, 2014 No heat wave? It will likely be normal warm but there aren't many signs of a mid-upper 90's pattern setting up anytime soon. Normal highs in July are still pretty hot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted June 23, 2014 Share Posted June 23, 2014 Getting back to the DCA thing, this morning at 5:52am Andrews was 60/59 or 99% and all other stations 95%+ yet DCA 68/63 or 84% and that is even less pronounced difference than often occurs. What sort of drying mechanism is in place there? Is the UHI in effect like a giant smoker lid, like on a grill, that somehow thwarts the cooling and evaporationsal forces of tons and tons of atmosphere??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted June 24, 2014 Share Posted June 24, 2014 Getting back to the DCA thing, this morning at 5:52am Andrews was 60/59 or 99% and all other stations 95%+ yet DCA 68/63 or 84% and that is even less pronounced difference than often occurs. What sort of drying mechanism is in place there? Is the UHI in effect like a giant smoker lid, like on a grill, that somehow thwarts the cooling and evaporationsal forces of tons and tons of atmosphere??? this is a great example of the misuse of RH vs other measures of atmospheric water vapor -- you're looking for some "drying mechanism" when in fact given the obs you cite here, DCA is the station with the greatest amount of actual water vapor -- and this "smoking gun" you think you found actually disproves your hypothesis of an "issue" with the obs at DC. Let's assume for a second that the background synoptic scale moisture field over the DC metro region is the same at all obs locations -- let's just say it equates to a surface dewpoint of 59 -- this would lead to a RH value of 99% at andrews and a RH value of 73% at DCA (assuming a surface temperature of 68, as cited above). Now the difference in surface temperatures between DCA and Andrews is easily explained by UHI as been shown to you countless times -- so given that you know UHI plays a role at the DCA ob site, could you explain why you'd expect RH to be constant across the region? And if so, where does this added water vapor needed to get DCA up to 68/67 come from (to be consistent with the RH at Andrews) -- nighttime available energy for evaporation is negligible compared to daytime... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted June 24, 2014 Share Posted June 24, 2014 Furthermore if you look at mixing ratio which is grams of water vapor per kilogram of air, the mixing ratio at DCA is 12.2 g/kg and at Andrews it is 10.6 g/kg. So how is some " drying mechanism" responsible for the difference in temperature? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted June 24, 2014 Share Posted June 24, 2014 NAM wants to keep us relatively dry through the end of the week.....quarter to half inch for the metro areas? Areas N/NW in PA get a nice drenching. Would like some storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted June 24, 2014 Share Posted June 24, 2014 I'm probably wrong. Ensembles haven't been very good at higher latitudes lately. Take away that ull and we can sweat missiles and drink evening air. On a persistence note, we have yet to establish any anomalous lasting warm pattern all year. They come and go when they do set up. On a climo note, were moving into primetime for a shot at triple digits. On a personal note, I despise Bermuda highs like 33 and rain. Bob Chill > StudentOfClimo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted June 24, 2014 Share Posted June 24, 2014 Love these pleasant mornings in the low 60s. Take every one of them I can. Still looks like no 90s in the next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted June 24, 2014 Share Posted June 24, 2014 Bob Chill > StudentOfClimo nah, plenty of time to flip to a brainmelting roasterama Right now GEFS and Euro Ens are in really good agreement for the next couple of weeks on the overall evolution for north america. I don't pay as close attention to height patterns in the summer as I do in the winter so I'm not sure if it's an unusual config for early July but it looks a bit unusual to me. Elongated ridging in the southern 3rd with the center focused in the middle of the country. This leaves our area in what appears to be a long duration w-nw upper level flow. Mid level flow looks favorable as well at times. If the setup verifies, we can expect normal to slightly above on temps but dews would likely be pleasant more often than not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 24, 2014 Share Posted June 24, 2014 Love these pleasant mornings in the low 60s. Take every one of them I can. Still looks like no 90s in the next week. Mentions on twitter of a hot July 4th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 24, 2014 Share Posted June 24, 2014 book it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted June 24, 2014 Share Posted June 24, 2014 book it hires_ref_streak_washdc_37.png What a tortured map that is. 4 hour max of composite reflectivity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted June 24, 2014 Share Posted June 24, 2014 What a tortured map that is. 4 hour max of composite reflectivity. Taken with a grain of salt, as it's the 4k NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted June 24, 2014 Share Posted June 24, 2014 Mentions on twitter of a hot July 4th Yeah, I've seen a few of them like Tony Pann. Not sure what he's seeing. As Bob has mentioned, it doesn't look like a cool pattern, but not an uber-torch either. Last night's 0z runs have us in W-NW flow with a little bit of troughing Today's 6z GEFS mean looks fairly similar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 24, 2014 Share Posted June 24, 2014 Yeah I think Tony was where I first saw it. Adam mentioned it too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted June 24, 2014 Share Posted June 24, 2014 Yeah, I've seen a few of them like Tony Pann. Not sure what he's seeing. As Bob has mentioned, it doesn't look like a cool pattern, but not an uber-torch either. Last night's 0z runs have us in W-NW flow with a little bit of troughing I'm not seeing signs of extended m-u 90's anywhere but low 90's are really easy in July. I'm not sure what everyone considers "hot". 92-93 in full sun is plenty hot even with dews in the l-m 60's. If July 4th is in the low 90's it will be remembered as a hot day because most everyone spends a good portion of the day outside. 92 is only a couple degrees above normal though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted June 24, 2014 Share Posted June 24, 2014 I'm not seeing signs of extended m-u 90's anywhere but low 90's are really easy in July. I'm not sure what everyone considers "hot". 92-93 in full sun is plenty hot even with dews in the l-m 60's. If July 4th is in the low 90's it will be remembered as a hot day because most everyone spends a good portion of the day outside. 92 is only a couple degrees above normal though. I can live with 90 under dry/low dew point conditions. Anything above 85 with humidity is disgusting for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted June 25, 2014 Share Posted June 25, 2014 just want some decent rains from today's pop chances Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted June 25, 2014 Share Posted June 25, 2014 Crickets in here. LWX disco mentions PWATS nearing 2", wet microbursts, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted June 25, 2014 Share Posted June 25, 2014 Ensembles have been trending towards more ridging early next week in front of the trough/ull tracking through southern canada / n plains. We might score some 90's in the sun-wed time frame. Overall the look is pretty boring for the next couple weeks. Signal for a low humidity 4th is still holding on. Pretty far out of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted June 25, 2014 Share Posted June 25, 2014 4km NAM and the HRRR both have a line going through the area around 9pm. NAM is further south and hits the metros, while the HRRR is a miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted June 25, 2014 Share Posted June 25, 2014 Any chance we get something out ahead of the line? Still plenty of sunshine east of the BR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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