EastCoast NPZ Posted June 20, 2014 Share Posted June 20, 2014 With lots of clouds so far this morning, it's really nice out. DP is down to 47F? Hard to believe. Total zilch in the rain dept again yesterday, but it was a nice bust low on the temps..... 82F for the high. Initial forecast was high of 89F, which was reduced to 86 by late morning, but still ended up too high. While by no means a nice week, our high for the week was 92. For 3 days, it wasn't really that bad. KOKV is off the reservation with that DP. No other station shows DPs below 56F. It's nice out, but it's not that nice out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted June 20, 2014 Share Posted June 20, 2014 60F felt glorious this morning. yeah, and I thought last week at this time we wouldn't see it again for the summer except for Tues & Wed, so far this June has been the most comfortable above normal temp June I think I've ever experienced Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 20, 2014 Share Posted June 20, 2014 So annoyed that today is beautiful and tomorrow is going to be cool, cloudy and rainy. The hubby felt that because a milestone birthday for me is coming up that we should celebrate. Hard to swim, grill, play corn hole in the rain.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted June 20, 2014 Share Posted June 20, 2014 So annoyed that today is beautiful and tomorrow is going to be cool, cloudy and rainy. The hubby felt that because a milestone birthday for me is coming up that we should celebrate. Hard to swim, grill, play corn hole in the rain.... Happy 21st? Move out my way. You'll never have to worry about a rain-out again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 20, 2014 Share Posted June 20, 2014 Happy 21st? Move out my way. You'll never have to worry about a rain-out again. But then I get less snow .... 29 again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted June 20, 2014 Share Posted June 20, 2014 LOL. Yeah, I figured; I was trying to flatter you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 20, 2014 Share Posted June 20, 2014 LOL. Yeah, I figured; I was trying to flatter you. I appreciate it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted June 20, 2014 Share Posted June 20, 2014 Cluster of storms to our south and to our north. The cluster south is building northward now that is east of us. Just another day in the desert. Chalk today up as another 0.0 in the bucket. That leaves me with .less than .75" since May 15. At least it's cloudy and, while muggy, not too hot today. Wow that is pretty dry, I've had 7.05 since the 15th of May..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted June 20, 2014 Share Posted June 20, 2014 True to form, DCA had a much lower RH value in the overnight hours. DPs around 49/50. BWI 50/51, IAD 51/53. This all makes sense because of the recent rainfall and more vegetation near IAD. So, it comes down to temps. BWI and IAD both radiated well (51 as the low for both), while DCA stopped at 60. So, is DCA's sensor wrong? Well, most of the downtown DC stations went down to 58 to 60, and the buoy south of DCA had a low of 62. Seems like the UHI and water temps can account for the DCA low. So, what's wrong with DCA again? All the other stations in the DCA obs package radiate out to 1-2 degrees of their dewpoint many nights, DCA never does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted June 20, 2014 Share Posted June 20, 2014 It was in another thread but I posted about 5/6 days ago that big changes were coming starting 6/20. Big changes are here, probably not above 75 tomorrow, then low to mid 80's to dominate next week, I think 70% likelyhood we see no more than one 90* high the rest of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted June 20, 2014 Share Posted June 20, 2014 30 wasn't as bad as I thought. I dread 40 though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted June 21, 2014 Share Posted June 21, 2014 30 wasn't as bad as I thought. I dread 40 though 30 was the worst for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted June 21, 2014 Share Posted June 21, 2014 NWS backpedaling on rain chances for metros overnight haha. Gonna be mostly dry. However, any rain that does fall would kick our collective asses with higher dewpoints. Told ya the klingon anti rain shield was in good working order. This is one of those years when we pine away for rain in the summer, then get relentlessly waterboarded with rain all fall and winter. EDIT - Dewpoints are rising right into the 60s. Not only is the cloud cover keeping nighttime temps summerlike, temps are rising. Overnight lows just went straight out the window. No radiative cooling whatsoever tonight. Forget that so-called low of 63 that was forecast by NWS. Our low will be 71 tonight with 65 dewpoints. If that sun peeks out the clouds tomorrow, we will end up with yet another humid warm day just like a few days ago. "Cold fronts" arent worth a shyte this summer. There will be absolutely NO rest at all for the summer-weary, Humid wx will rule. This is gonna be one HUMID son of a hellish bytch summer season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted June 21, 2014 Share Posted June 21, 2014 00z model suite is pretty dry for Saturday for most of the area, especially northeast of DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted June 21, 2014 Share Posted June 21, 2014 I'm starting to like the idea of a heatwave to open the month of July. There's some support for it in the modeling, and the tropical forcings favor it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted June 21, 2014 Share Posted June 21, 2014 Cool and showery this morning. Rather have some sun so I can take the little one to the pool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted June 21, 2014 Share Posted June 21, 2014 Cool and showery this morning. Rather have some sun so I can take the little one to the pool. .25" overnight. I'll take it after missing out the last couple days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted June 21, 2014 Share Posted June 21, 2014 I'm starting to like the idea of a heatwave to open the month of July. There's some support for it in the modeling, and the tropical forcings favor it... I'm not sure I agree. The ens means are showing a bias towards weak troughing through the first 5-6 days of July. Certainly not a cool look but with w-nw ul flow and no big ridge it's going to be hard to really bake us. I think the southern 3rd of the country could really bake though. Pretty far out there though. Here's last nights euro 5 day means for the end of June and early July. You can really see the effects of the ull during the close of june. With the trough entering the west we normally ridge out and roast but ridging is held at bay. Still looks plenty warm though just not evil. Early July looks pretty tame on the run. The look implies a boundary setting up somewhere near us as well. Could be showery for a period. Much will depend on the evolution of the closed ull between hudson and greenland. Models seem to think it gets pinned in that area. It's going to be tough to get ridging going in the east with that configuration. The gefs supports the idea as well but like any guess at this lead, confidence is low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted June 21, 2014 Share Posted June 21, 2014 Drizzle and 63 degrees. Beautiful for late June. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted June 21, 2014 Share Posted June 21, 2014 I'm not sure I agree. The ens means are showing a bias towards weak troughing through the first 5-6 days of July. Certainly not a cool look but with w-nw ul flow and no big ridge it's going to be hard to really bake us. I think the southern 3rd of the country could really bake though. Pretty far out there though. Here's last nights euro 5 day means for the end of June and early July. You can really see the effects of the ull during the close of june. With the trough entering the west we normally ridge out and roast but ridging is held at bay. Still looks plenty warm though just not evil. Early July looks pretty tame on the run. end of june.JPG early july.JPG The look implies a boundary setting up somewhere near us as well. Could be showery for a period. Much will depend on the evolution of the closed ull between hudson and greenland. Models seem to think it gets pinned in that area. It's going to be tough to get ridging going in the east with that configuration. The gefs supports the idea as well but like any guess at this lead, confidence is low. Thanks for the reply. I guess I'm hesitant to put a lot of weight into the forecast location of the ULL given that the large scale circulations/tropical forcings suggest a trough in the west for that time. This is a pretty legit MJO event..first one in awhile. I guess we'll see. I hope your prediction is true if means we finally get some legit severe around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted June 21, 2014 Share Posted June 21, 2014 Typical summer day Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted June 21, 2014 Share Posted June 21, 2014 Thanks for the reply. I guess I'm hesitant to put a lot of weight into the forecast location of the ULL given that the large scale circulations/tropical forcings suggest a trough in the west for that time. This is a pretty legit MJO event..first one in awhile. I guess we'll see. I hope your prediction is true if means we finally get some legit severe around here. I'm probably wrong. Ensembles haven't been very good at higher latitudes lately. Take away that ull and we can sweat missiles and drink evening air. On a persistence note, we have yet to establish any anomalous lasting warm pattern all year. They come and go when they do set up. On a climo note, were moving into primetime for a shot at triple digits. On a personal note, I despise Bermuda highs like 33 and rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted June 21, 2014 Share Posted June 21, 2014 I'm probably wrong. Ensembles haven't been very good at higher latitudes lately. Take away that ull and we can sweat missiles and drink evening air. On a persistence note, we have yet to establish any anomalous lasting warm pattern all year. They come and go when they do set up. On a climo note, were moving into primetime for a shot at triple digits. On a personal note, I despise Bermuda highs like 33 and rain. Lol, I hear ya brother. You could be right, and agreed that any heat should be relatively transient. If we do wind up with the heat, I hope we put that CAPE to good use. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted June 21, 2014 Share Posted June 21, 2014 Goodness gracious. Late June, strongest sun of the Year, mid afternonn and my temp is 67.4, down another degree in the last hour. My description almost a month ago of what the pattern would be and the pressure system movement was spot on and this change in pattern that I referenced 5 days ago is more pronounced that I thought. Hard to say right yet what will happen starting Juny 1 but I think this basic repetitive pattern will continue thru at least mid July. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted June 21, 2014 Share Posted June 21, 2014 So much for this forecast, oh well. Only drizzle right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 21, 2014 Share Posted June 21, 2014 Goodness gracious. Late June, strongest sun of the Year, mid afternonn and my temp is 67.4, down another degree in the last hour. My description almost a month ago of what the pattern would be and the pressure system movement was spot on and this change in pattern that I referenced 5 days ago is more pronounced that I thought. Hard to say right yet what will happen starting Juny 1 but I think this basic repetitive pattern will continue thru at least mid July. You have done well on the pattern of late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted June 21, 2014 Share Posted June 21, 2014 So much for this forecast, Drizzle and 69 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 21, 2014 Share Posted June 21, 2014 It is surprisingly cool today given it's been relatively dry. MOS was mid-70s to near 80 throughout yesterday. Guess it's the climo lean a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted June 21, 2014 Share Posted June 21, 2014 87/70. A little "cooler" compared to the past 5 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted June 21, 2014 Share Posted June 21, 2014 64 and showery. For June 21, this is totally 10/10. And the countdown to fall begins today! FU, sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.