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June 1-7 Severe Threat


snowlover2

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I'd peg southern Indiana into central/west-central Kentucky as an area with a slightly enhanced tornado threat. Locally backed surface winds to SSW/S, good instability, high dews, LCLs <1000m and locally enhanced low-level helicity. Watch any storms that fire across SE Missouri and S Illinois as they advance east into this region. FWIW, STP was depicted as up to 4 in W Kentucky as of 17z.

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0814
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1220 PM CDT WED JUN 04 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SERN MO...SRN IL...SRN IN...WRN AND CNTRL
KY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 041720Z - 041915Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ONE OR MORE SEVERE WEATHER WATCHES PROBABLY WILL BE NEEDED
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...PERHAPS WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS CONCERNING TIMING OF THE MORE
SUBSTANTIVE INCREASE IN SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. THIS SEEMS MOST
LIKELY CLOSER TO THE 21-22Z TIME FRAME...BUT COULD OCCUR EARLIER.

DISCUSSION...TIMING OF SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI INTO LOWER OHIO VALLEY
REMAINS A BIT UNCLEAR. IN THE WAKE OF A COUPLE OF CONVECTIVELY
GENERATED OR ENHANCED PERTURBATIONS...LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
STILL SUGGESTS INHIBITION FOR MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER PARCELS AHEAD OF
A SOUTHEASTWARD ADVANCING FRONT...FROM PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI
AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY...IS CONSIDERABLE.
HOWEVER...AT LEAST SOME INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALREADY
APPEARS EVIDENT ALONG THE SOUTHWARD ADVANCING EFFECTIVE COLD FRONT.

INTO AND THROUGH THE 18-21Z TIME FRAME...FURTHER INSOLATION...
BENEATH A CONTINUING INFLUX OF VERY WARM ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AIR
FROM THE PLAINS...LIKELY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO LARGE BOUNDARY LAYER
CAPE IN THE PRESENCE OF STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. BENEATH
40-50 KT WEST NORTHWESTERLY 500 MB FLOW ON THE NORTHEASTERN
PERIPHERY OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGING...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
ERODING WITH AT LEAST WEAK MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME CONDUCIVE TO DISCRETE
SUPERCELL STORMS INITIALLY. UPSCALE CONVECTIVE GROWTH TO ONE OR
MORE ORGANIZED AND CONSOLIDATING STORM CLUSTERS PROBABLY WILL BE
FAIRLY RAPID...HOWEVER...WITH LARGE HAIL AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS.

..KERR/CARBIN.. 06/04/2014

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Southern IL and IN are really primed, MLCAPE of 2500j/kg and 6km shear at 40kts now. Wouldn't be surprised to see stuff start to pop up in that direction in the next hour or so.

 

Me in NW OH, got .75in of rain since 11am. It's been kinda dry (at least in the areas that didn't get the monsoon last week), so we could use it...

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In OH

 

 

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
330 PM EDT WED JUN 4 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN BROWN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST OHIO...
EASTERN CLERMONT COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST OHIO...
SOUTHWESTERN HIGHLAND COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST OHIO...

* UNTIL 400 PM EDT.

* AT 328 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING A TORNADO LOCATED NEAR WILLIAMSBURG...MOVING EAST AT 30
MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MOUNT ORAB...

IN ADDITION...CHASETOWN...GREENBUSH...STATE ROUTE 32 AT US ROUTE
68...BUFORD...SARDINIA...MOWRYSTOWN...DANVILLE AND STATE ROUTE 136 AT
US ROUTE 62 ARE NEAR THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS THUNDERSTORM.

Also new tornado watch west of first one.

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Another one.

 

 

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
344 PM EDT WED JUN 4 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN CLINTON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST OHIO...
HIGHLAND COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST OHIO...
NORTHWESTERN PIKE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST OHIO...
SOUTHWESTERN ROSS COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST OHIO...

* UNTIL 415 PM EDT.

* AT 341 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING A TORNADO LOCATED NEAR LYNCHBURG...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HILLSBORO...
GREENFIELD...

IN ADDITION...DANVILLE...RUSSELL...STATE ROUTE 136 AT US ROUTE 62...
NEW MARKET...BERRYSVILLE...SAMANTHA...HIGHLAND COUNTY AIRPORT AND
MARSHALL ARE NEAR THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS THUNDERSTORM.
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Hmmm...these spotter reports are getting worse by the day.

 

NWS PAH: 5 NE Crofton [Christian Co, KY] public reports TORNADO at 08:29 PM CDT -- report of large violent rain-wrapped tornado. appears to be wedge shaped.

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When the warning was issued there probably was something then, but as the warning continued on, I cannot see a wedge with that sort of radar signature. Not to mention there was no TDS with the storm and you'd have to imagine a wedge would be lofting stuff into the air and presenting a TDS.

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Absolutely no wedge, maybe a weak, rain-wrapped tor. The velocity scans were a mess. I drove from Crofton to Mortons Gap afterward and saw a total of one tree down.

post-533-0-11518700-1401982140_thumb.jpg

The image above was where I was facing northeast with some locals and saw a rotating wall cloud, partially obscured by trees. I'm not surprised by the false reports, but nothing even visually looked anything close to a wedge. Yeah, it was a heavily wooded area, but it's disgraceful and pure stupidity to make reports like that. The warning was kept up much longer than it needed to be, probably due to the bogus claims.

Anyway, upon intercepting a few times there were some strong, swirling winds bringing down branches and creating zero visibility. There were times with flashes of lightning that I could make out a low hanging appendage, but even that was small and nowhere near a mile wide.

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And I wonder if we might as well continue this thread into today--SPC Day 1 now has much of southern Illinois (with my area now on the northern periphery of the risk at this time) in a Slight Risk for today, including 5/15/15 probs in the St. Louis metro area:

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

SPC AC 071244   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK     NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK   0744 AM CDT SAT JUN 07 2014   VALID 071300Z - 081200Z   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS TO   THE MID MS VALLEY...   ...SUMMARY...   ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS SHOULD PEAK IN THE   AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TO THE   LOWER/MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND A   FEW TORNADOES ARE ANTICIPATED. AN ENHANCED RISK OF THESE HAZARDS IS   FORECAST FROM SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO TO THE   SOUTH PLAINS OF TEXAS.   ...SYNOPSIS...   A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW PATTERN IS PRESENT TODAY OVER THE   CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS STATES AND MS VALLEY.    WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PROGRESSING   ACROSS THE NATION.  TWO SYSTEMS IN PARTICULAR WILL HELP FOCUS THE   RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATER TODAY.   ...MID MS VALLEY...   AN ONGOING CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IS OVER WESTERN/CENTRAL MO.    THESE STORMS ARE AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS KS.  DUE   TO THE RATHER WIDESPREAD NATURE OF THESE STORMS/CLOUDS THIS   MORNING...IT IS UNCLEAR HOW MUCH DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR OVER   PARTS OF EASTERN MO/WESTERN IL. NEVERTHELESS...BACKED LOW LEVEL   WINDS AND THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL PROMOTE THE RISK OF   STRONG/SEVERE STORMS. LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WOULD BE THE   MAIN RISKS...HOWEVER SOME THREAT OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL ALSO   EXIST.   ...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...   SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE MAINTAINED   OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF SOUTHEAST CO AND EASTERN NM.  A WEAK   SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NORTHWEST CO WILL SAG SOUTHWARD AND HELP TO   INITIATE STORMS BY LATE AFTERNOON ALONG THE FOOTHILLS.  40+ KNOT   WESTERLY MID LEVEL WINDS WILL PROMOTE SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE   OF VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES.    THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY PERSIST AND SPREAD EASTWARD   DURING THE EVENING INTO THE TX PANHANDLE AND EVENTUALLY OK...WHERE   DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT.   ..HART/MOSIER.. 06/07/2014
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MCD for Part of the Lower Ohio Valley

 

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0877
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1225 PM CDT SAT JUN 07 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SRN/ERN MO...SRN IL...WRN KY...NRN
AR...WRN TN...FAR SWRN INDIANA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 071725Z - 071930Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASE IN THE
SVR-TSTM POTENTIAL...AND THIS MAY REQUIRE WW ISSUANCE.

DISCUSSION...AN ARC OF CONVECTION IS CROSSING THE MS RIVER NEAR AND
N OF ST LOUIS...AND EXTENDS SWWD INTO SERN MO WITHIN THE ERN
SEMICIRCLE OF 1006-MB SFC CYCLONE CENTERED OVER W-CNTRL MO. THIS
ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO BE SUPPORTED BY A LONG-LIVED MCV THAT EVOLVED
FROM NOCTURNAL CONVECTION OVER THE SRN PLAINS...AND IS GENERALLY
CO-LOCATED WITH THE SFC CYCLONE. DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF
MCV/CONVECTIVE ARC INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY IS ONGOING OWING TO AT
LEAST PARTIAL INSOLATION AMIDST UPPER 60S/AROUND 70F SFC DEWPOINTS
S/SW OF A WARM FRONT DRAPED FROM NEAR STL SEWD TO MIDDLE TN. THIS
MAY LEAD TO AN INTENSIFICATION OF THE ONGOING CONVECTION AS IT
SPREADS EWD...WITH SOME INCREASE IN THE DMGG WIND RISK -- POSSIBLY A
TORNADO.

OF PARTICULAR CONCERN...STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOTED
AT THE SRN EDGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTION WWD TO A CONFLUENCE
AXIS EXTENDING S OF THE CYCLONE TO N-CNTRL AR. VIS IMAGERY INDICATES
MID-LEVEL CONVECTION INCREASING WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR -- I.E. FROM
S-CNTRL MO AND ADJACENT FAR NRN AR -- AND THIS MAY BE A FAVORABLE
ZONE FOR EVENTUAL SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT GIVEN MORE A MORE DISCRETE
CONVECTIVE MODE AND 40 KT OF MID-LEVEL FLOW. STRONGER INSTABILITY IN
THIS REGION -- E.G. MLCAPE AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG -- WILL AID IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL...AND DMGG WINDS AND PERHAPS ONE OR TWO
TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE OF CONCERN. THE TORNADO RISK COULD INCREASE
IF SUSTAINED CONVECTION WERE TO ADVANCE EWD INTO MORE BACKED SFC
WINDS FOUND E OF THE CONFLUENCE AXIS TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER.
HOWEVER...SUCH POTENTIAL WILL BE SPATIALLY CONFINED OWING TO SFC
WINDS EXHIBITING A TENDENCY OF VEERING WITHIN APPRECIABLE
PROPORTIONS OF THE WARM SECTOR OF THE CYCLONE.

..COHEN/WEISS.. 06/07/2014

 

post-154-0-31993900-1402163749_thumb.gif

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