Brick Tamland Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 Tornado warning in southern OH until 12:45 pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 Since the track of the surface low was getting some attention, it looks like it's currently just west of me based on winds but it's kinda diffuse overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 I'd peg southern Indiana into central/west-central Kentucky as an area with a slightly enhanced tornado threat. Locally backed surface winds to SSW/S, good instability, high dews, LCLs <1000m and locally enhanced low-level helicity. Watch any storms that fire across SE Missouri and S Illinois as they advance east into this region. FWIW, STP was depicted as up to 4 in W Kentucky as of 17z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0814NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK1220 PM CDT WED JUN 04 2014AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SERN MO...SRN IL...SRN IN...WRN AND CNTRLKYCONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELYVALID 041720Z - 041915ZPROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENTSUMMARY...ONE OR MORE SEVERE WEATHER WATCHES PROBABLY WILL BE NEEDEDACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...PERHAPS WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR ORTWO. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS CONCERNING TIMING OF THE MORESUBSTANTIVE INCREASE IN SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. THIS SEEMS MOSTLIKELY CLOSER TO THE 21-22Z TIME FRAME...BUT COULD OCCUR EARLIER.DISCUSSION...TIMING OF SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN CONVECTIVEDEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI INTO LOWER OHIO VALLEYREMAINS A BIT UNCLEAR. IN THE WAKE OF A COUPLE OF CONVECTIVELYGENERATED OR ENHANCED PERTURBATIONS...LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSISSTILL SUGGESTS INHIBITION FOR MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER PARCELS AHEAD OFA SOUTHEASTWARD ADVANCING FRONT...FROM PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURIAND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY...IS CONSIDERABLE.HOWEVER...AT LEAST SOME INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALREADYAPPEARS EVIDENT ALONG THE SOUTHWARD ADVANCING EFFECTIVE COLD FRONT.INTO AND THROUGH THE 18-21Z TIME FRAME...FURTHER INSOLATION...BENEATH A CONTINUING INFLUX OF VERY WARM ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AIRFROM THE PLAINS...LIKELY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO LARGE BOUNDARY LAYERCAPE IN THE PRESENCE OF STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. BENEATH40-50 KT WEST NORTHWESTERLY 500 MB FLOW ON THE NORTHEASTERNPERIPHERY OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGING...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BEGINERODING WITH AT LEAST WEAK MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS LATER THISAFTERNOON...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME CONDUCIVE TO DISCRETESUPERCELL STORMS INITIALLY. UPSCALE CONVECTIVE GROWTH TO ONE ORMORE ORGANIZED AND CONSOLIDATING STORM CLUSTERS PROBABLY WILL BEFAIRLY RAPID...HOWEVER...WITH LARGE HAIL AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGINGWIND GUSTS THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS...KERR/CARBIN.. 06/04/2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 Southern IL and IN are really primed, MLCAPE of 2500j/kg and 6km shear at 40kts now. Wouldn't be surprised to see stuff start to pop up in that direction in the next hour or so. Me in NW OH, got .75in of rain since 11am. It's been kinda dry (at least in the areas that didn't get the monsoon last week), so we could use it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Castaway Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 Congrats to others. I'm kinda glad it didn't plow through here this morning. Woke up naked with the windows wide open Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 Tornado Watch for eastern half of Kentucky, far southern Ohio and western West Virginia until 9 p.m. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 4, 2014 Author Share Posted June 4, 2014 In OH BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTEDTORNADO WARNINGNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH330 PM EDT WED JUN 4 2014THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON HAS ISSUED A* TORNADO WARNING FOR...NORTHERN BROWN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST OHIO...EASTERN CLERMONT COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST OHIO...SOUTHWESTERN HIGHLAND COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST OHIO...* UNTIL 400 PM EDT.* AT 328 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OFPRODUCING A TORNADO LOCATED NEAR WILLIAMSBURG...MOVING EAST AT 30MPH.* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...MOUNT ORAB...IN ADDITION...CHASETOWN...GREENBUSH...STATE ROUTE 32 AT US ROUTE68...BUFORD...SARDINIA...MOWRYSTOWN...DANVILLE AND STATE ROUTE 136 ATUS ROUTE 62 ARE NEAR THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS THUNDERSTORM. Also new tornado watch west of first one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 4, 2014 Author Share Posted June 4, 2014 Another one. BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTEDTORNADO WARNINGNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH344 PM EDT WED JUN 4 2014THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON HAS ISSUED A* TORNADO WARNING FOR...SOUTHERN CLINTON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST OHIO...HIGHLAND COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST OHIO...NORTHWESTERN PIKE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST OHIO...SOUTHWESTERN ROSS COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST OHIO...* UNTIL 415 PM EDT.* AT 341 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OFPRODUCING A TORNADO LOCATED NEAR LYNCHBURG...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...HILLSBORO...GREENFIELD...IN ADDITION...DANVILLE...RUSSELL...STATE ROUTE 136 AT US ROUTE 62...NEW MARKET...BERRYSVILLE...SAMANTHA...HIGHLAND COUNTY AIRPORT ANDMARSHALL ARE NEAR THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS THUNDERSTORM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 Setup looks rather meager in terms or tornado potential. Storms forming a line, so there could be an enhanced wind threat developing later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 Large tornado reported by spotters in KY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwburbschaser Posted June 5, 2014 Share Posted June 5, 2014 Large tornado reported by spotters in KY. Is Jeff Piotrowski down in Kentucky or something? Maybe one of those phantom multi vortex wedges. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 5, 2014 Share Posted June 5, 2014 Is Jeff Piotrowski down in Kentucky or something? Maybe one of those phantom multi vortex wedges. It had a stronger couplet a few scans ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 5, 2014 Share Posted June 5, 2014 Hmmm...these spotter reports are getting worse by the day. NWS PAH: 5 NE Crofton [Christian Co, KY] public reports TORNADO at 08:29 PM CDT -- report of large violent rain-wrapped tornado. appears to be wedge shaped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 5, 2014 Share Posted June 5, 2014 Someone is calling in absolutely moronic reports, this thing has gusted out. Complete disgrace to meteorology and public safety, whoever it is should be thrown in jail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 5, 2014 Share Posted June 5, 2014 2014. The year of rain-shaft-nadoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 5, 2014 Share Posted June 5, 2014 This is also a terrible display by WFO PAH, disgusting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted June 5, 2014 Share Posted June 5, 2014 Has there ever been a wedge tornado that had a poor radar presentation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwburbschaser Posted June 5, 2014 Share Posted June 5, 2014 2014. The year of rain-shaft-nadoes. This issue is only going to get worse in the future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 5, 2014 Share Posted June 5, 2014 This issue is only going to get worse in the future. People will lose their lives because of nonsense like this, it's that simple. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 5, 2014 Share Posted June 5, 2014 When the warning was issued there probably was something then, but as the warning continued on, I cannot see a wedge with that sort of radar signature. Not to mention there was no TDS with the storm and you'd have to imagine a wedge would be lofting stuff into the air and presenting a TDS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted June 5, 2014 Share Posted June 5, 2014 Absolutely no wedge, maybe a weak, rain-wrapped tor. The velocity scans were a mess. I drove from Crofton to Mortons Gap afterward and saw a total of one tree down. The image above was where I was facing northeast with some locals and saw a rotating wall cloud, partially obscured by trees. I'm not surprised by the false reports, but nothing even visually looked anything close to a wedge. Yeah, it was a heavily wooded area, but it's disgraceful and pure stupidity to make reports like that. The warning was kept up much longer than it needed to be, probably due to the bogus claims. Anyway, upon intercepting a few times there were some strong, swirling winds bringing down branches and creating zero visibility. There were times with flashes of lightning that I could make out a low hanging appendage, but even that was small and nowhere near a mile wide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tim from Springfield (IL) Posted June 7, 2014 Share Posted June 7, 2014 LSX survey on a brief EF0 tornado touchdown north of Jerseyville, IL (Jersey County) early Wednesday morning: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lsx/?n=survey1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tim from Springfield (IL) Posted June 7, 2014 Share Posted June 7, 2014 And I wonder if we might as well continue this thread into today--SPC Day 1 now has much of southern Illinois (with my area now on the northern periphery of the risk at this time) in a Slight Risk for today, including 5/15/15 probs in the St. Louis metro area: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html SPC AC 071244 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0744 AM CDT SAT JUN 07 2014 VALID 071300Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS TO THE MID MS VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS SHOULD PEAK IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TO THE LOWER/MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND A FEW TORNADOES ARE ANTICIPATED. AN ENHANCED RISK OF THESE HAZARDS IS FORECAST FROM SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO TO THE SOUTH PLAINS OF TEXAS. ...SYNOPSIS... A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW PATTERN IS PRESENT TODAY OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS STATES AND MS VALLEY. WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PROGRESSING ACROSS THE NATION. TWO SYSTEMS IN PARTICULAR WILL HELP FOCUS THE RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATER TODAY. ...MID MS VALLEY... AN ONGOING CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IS OVER WESTERN/CENTRAL MO. THESE STORMS ARE AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS KS. DUE TO THE RATHER WIDESPREAD NATURE OF THESE STORMS/CLOUDS THIS MORNING...IT IS UNCLEAR HOW MUCH DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR OVER PARTS OF EASTERN MO/WESTERN IL. NEVERTHELESS...BACKED LOW LEVEL WINDS AND THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL PROMOTE THE RISK OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS. LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WOULD BE THE MAIN RISKS...HOWEVER SOME THREAT OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL ALSO EXIST. ...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE MAINTAINED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF SOUTHEAST CO AND EASTERN NM. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NORTHWEST CO WILL SAG SOUTHWARD AND HELP TO INITIATE STORMS BY LATE AFTERNOON ALONG THE FOOTHILLS. 40+ KNOT WESTERLY MID LEVEL WINDS WILL PROMOTE SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES. THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY PERSIST AND SPREAD EASTWARD DURING THE EVENING INTO THE TX PANHANDLE AND EVENTUALLY OK...WHERE DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. ..HART/MOSIER.. 06/07/2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldlogin Posted June 7, 2014 Share Posted June 7, 2014 MCD for Part of the Lower Ohio Valley MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0877NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK1225 PM CDT SAT JUN 07 2014AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SRN/ERN MO...SRN IL...WRN KY...NRNAR...WRN TN...FAR SWRN INDIANACONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLEVALID 071725Z - 071930ZPROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENTSUMMARY...THE AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASE IN THESVR-TSTM POTENTIAL...AND THIS MAY REQUIRE WW ISSUANCE.DISCUSSION...AN ARC OF CONVECTION IS CROSSING THE MS RIVER NEAR ANDN OF ST LOUIS...AND EXTENDS SWWD INTO SERN MO WITHIN THE ERNSEMICIRCLE OF 1006-MB SFC CYCLONE CENTERED OVER W-CNTRL MO. THISACTIVITY CONTINUES TO BE SUPPORTED BY A LONG-LIVED MCV THAT EVOLVEDFROM NOCTURNAL CONVECTION OVER THE SRN PLAINS...AND IS GENERALLYCO-LOCATED WITH THE SFC CYCLONE. DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OFMCV/CONVECTIVE ARC INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY IS ONGOING OWING TO ATLEAST PARTIAL INSOLATION AMIDST UPPER 60S/AROUND 70F SFC DEWPOINTSS/SW OF A WARM FRONT DRAPED FROM NEAR STL SEWD TO MIDDLE TN. THISMAY LEAD TO AN INTENSIFICATION OF THE ONGOING CONVECTION AS ITSPREADS EWD...WITH SOME INCREASE IN THE DMGG WIND RISK -- POSSIBLY ATORNADO.OF PARTICULAR CONCERN...STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOTEDAT THE SRN EDGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTION WWD TO A CONFLUENCEAXIS EXTENDING S OF THE CYCLONE TO N-CNTRL AR. VIS IMAGERY INDICATESMID-LEVEL CONVECTION INCREASING WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR -- I.E. FROMS-CNTRL MO AND ADJACENT FAR NRN AR -- AND THIS MAY BE A FAVORABLEZONE FOR EVENTUAL SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT GIVEN MORE A MORE DISCRETECONVECTIVE MODE AND 40 KT OF MID-LEVEL FLOW. STRONGER INSTABILITY INTHIS REGION -- E.G. MLCAPE AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG -- WILL AID IN THEPOTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL...AND DMGG WINDS AND PERHAPS ONE OR TWOTORNADOES WILL ALSO BE OF CONCERN. THE TORNADO RISK COULD INCREASEIF SUSTAINED CONVECTION WERE TO ADVANCE EWD INTO MORE BACKED SFCWINDS FOUND E OF THE CONFLUENCE AXIS TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER.HOWEVER...SUCH POTENTIAL WILL BE SPATIALLY CONFINED OWING TO SFCWINDS EXHIBITING A TENDENCY OF VEERING WITHIN APPRECIABLEPROPORTIONS OF THE WARM SECTOR OF THE CYCLONE...COHEN/WEISS.. 06/07/2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 7, 2014 Share Posted June 7, 2014 Fairly strong rotation with a BWER west of New Madrid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldlogin Posted June 7, 2014 Share Posted June 7, 2014 Its warned now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 7, 2014 Share Posted June 7, 2014 Possible TDS per NWS MEG, that storm has great inflow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted June 7, 2014 Share Posted June 7, 2014 From the radar depiction, there is probably TOG. The way the river snakes in that area and with the path of the possible tornado, it could cross it three times! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 7, 2014 Share Posted June 7, 2014 From the radar depiction, there is probably TOG. The way the river snakes in that area and with the path of the possible tornado, it could cross it three times! TDS to at least 7500 ft from NQA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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