A-L-E-K Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 Yep. NAMs north bias hasn't met a season it didn't like. Looking forward to my moderate rain... :/ whenever the models go HAM on convection like they were for days, you can pretty much lock in a robust cold pool and ride the southern solutions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 loving the strictly outflow warning boxFor posterity... Don't often see that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 nice thanks for that grab some locals in E NE/W IA are getting trained like crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 According to EuroWX that is run by Andrew Revering, who also is the administrator for F5data, the Euro has really liked central Indiana for tornadic potential for the last 3-4 runs. Its under the severe tab called APRWX Tornado. He does have a link that explains that on the EuroWX home page but I can't open it according to my server. I'm sure its to expensive to show all the parameters that go into it, so he has decided on that. Wished I could see the parameters that he uses. For what's its worth, he didn't like much of a tornado outbreak for today, but tomorrow is another story. Here is a link if you want to try the free trial. http://eurowx.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 00z NAM goes way south, unsurprisingly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 If I'm reading this right the NAM Fire Nested run will highlight the area with 06/04/0z run. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll/firewx/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 While this is very close to what the EuroWX has been showing, the 12z run was a bit further to the North and a bit stronger, than what the 06/04/0z run on the regular Nam is showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 While this is very close to what the EuroWX has been showing, the 12z run was a bit further to the North and a bit stronger, than what the 06/04/0z run on the regular Nam is showing. Also a bit NE of there, sorry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 Yikes!!, this could be fast by about three hours or so, but central Indiana needs to be on a high alert for tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 Kinda cool but you have to click on this link now and select the base reflectivity loop. I'm guessing the beam is being refracted closer to the ground because of the sharp density differential in the atmosphere just north of Indy, just a guess. But the wind farms just north of me and up by LAF are vivdly showing up. Never seen that. http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=IND-N0Q-1-24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 Kinda cool but you have to click on this link now and select the base reflectivity loop. I'm guessing the beam is being refracted closer to the ground because of the sharp density differential in the atmosphere just north of Indy, just a guess. But the wind farms just north of me and up by LAF are vivdly showing up. Never seen that. http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=IND-N0Q-1-24 I have seen wind farms on radar scans many times over southern MN, not sure how that plays into modeling however, frankly I don't think it does, as the radar will continually show the wind farms, I don't see how they can affect a strong system coming in, unless the resolution of a certain model is 1km or there about. As of now I don't know of any model that does that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Castaway Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 Awesome. Currently, even though its hitting south it looks beautiful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Castaway Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 Riding that front Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 4, 2014 Author Share Posted June 4, 2014 Moderate risk on new day 1. Graphics in a moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 4, 2014 Author Share Posted June 4, 2014 Moderate risk on new day 1. Graphics in a moment. No moderate SPC didn't change banner on main page so it fooled me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 Moderate risk on new day 1. Graphics in a moment. Nope. I am shocked by the latest outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 4, 2014 Author Share Posted June 4, 2014 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOKNWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0100 AM CDT WED JUN 04 2014 VALID 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEY REGION AND VICINITY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER WRN PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS STATES FROM THE DAKOTAS TO THE TX/OK PANHANDLE REGION... ...SUMMARY... STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP PRIMARILY THROUGH THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION WEDNESDAY WITH A THREAT FOR MAINLY DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL...THOUGH A TORNADO THREAT CANNOT BE RULED OUT. OTHER MORE ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS STATES...FROM THE DAKOTAS SOUTH TO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. ...SYNOPSIS... THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE U.S. IS FORECAST TO TREND GRADUALLY TOWARD A QUASI-ZONAL REGIME...AS NUMEROUS SHORT-WAVE DISTURBANCES SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE COUNTRY SUPPRESSING THE SRN U.S. RIDGE. AT THE SURFACE...A BAROCLINIC ZONE IS FORECAST TO EVENTUALLY BECOME ESTABLISHED IN A ROUGHLY W-E FASHION FROM THE KS/OK VICINITY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION...AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW TRACKS EWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY WITH TIME. THIS BOUNDARY -- AND THE UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME N OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS VICINITY -- WILL FOCUS THE MAIN AREAS OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THIS PERIOD. ...THE OH/TN VALLEY VICINITY... A RATHER DIFFICULT FORECAST WITH RESPECT TO CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION ACROSS THE OH VALLEY REGION IS EVIDENT ATTM...AS A VERY LARGE COMPLEX OF STORMS IS CURRENTLY MOVING SEWD ACROSS THE MID AND LOWER MO/MID MS VALLEY REGION. THIS COMPLEX OF STORMS -- IN VARIOUS STAGES OF DECAY WITHIN THE VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS -- WILL LIKELY RESIDE OVER THE LOWER OH/MID MS VALLEY REGION EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WITH ANY ONGOING PRECIPITATION AND THE REMNANT CLOUD SHIELD LIKELY TO AFFECT THE DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL OF THE DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK. WITH THAT SAID...MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT AN AREA SE OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE CONTAMINATION -- LIKELY CENTERED ON THE KY VICINITY -- SHOULD DESTABILIZE SUFFICIENTLY SUCH THAT NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR NEAR A CONVECTIVELY REINFORCED FRONTAL SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED/WEAK SURFACE LOW CROSSING THE OH VALLEY REGION. WITH MODERATELY STRONG/WEAKLY VEERING FLOW WITH HEIGHT TO RESIDE ACROSS THE AREA...STORMS SHOULD BECOME SEVERE -- WITH LIKELIHOOD FOR GRADUAL UPSCALE GROWTH FROM CELLULAR TO SMALL-SCALE LINEAR MODE. RISK FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH A TORNADO OR TWO...WITH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE THREAT MODULATED TO SOME EXTENT BY DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION WHICH CAN OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA. VARIOUS MODEL RUNS SHOW VARYING CONVECTIVE EVOLUTIONS THROUGH THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH SOME MODELS SPREADING STORMS EWD ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND OTHERS WITH A MORE SWD ADVANCE OF STORMS INTO THE GULF COAST STATES. IN ANY CASE...SEVERE RISK SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER IN THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT IN CONJUNCTION WITH DIURNAL BOUNDARY-LAYER STABILIZATION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 The new day1 pretty much illustrates the worthlessness of the NAM in all seasons beyond the 12-24hr mark. I say reinstate the old ETA from the early 2000s and ditch the NAM. The ETA was light years ahead of the POS NAM. EDIT: Actually I think they should just change the name of the NAM12 to the RAP84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 The new day1 pretty much illustrates the worthlessness of the NAM in all seasons beyond the 12-24hr mark. I say reinstate the old ETA from the early 2000s and ditch the NAM. The ETA was light years ahead of the POS NAM. EDIT: Actually I think they should just change the name of the NAM12 to the RAP84. Anecdotally it seems that way but the modeling folks will tell you that's not the case (regarding the ETA). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 Nope. I am shocked by the latest outlook. I can understand the logic...they are biting hard on areas farther north not being able to destabilize enough. These setups with ongoing convection certainly muddle the picture. Give me a "clean" setup any day of the week and twice on Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 4, 2014 Author Share Posted June 4, 2014 About to expire but just saw it. SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL157 AM CDT WED JUN 4 2014ILC039-115-147-040715-/O.CON.KILX.TO.W.0013.000000T0000Z-140604T0715Z/MACON IL-PIATT IL-DE WITT IL-157 AM CDT WED JUN 4 2014...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN DE WITT...WESTERNPIATT AND MACON COUNTIES UNTIL 215 AM CDT...AT 153 AM CDT...A SEVERE SQUALL LINE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOESTHAT MAY NOT BE VISIBLE DUE TO HEAVY RAIN WAS LOCATED ALONG A LINEEXTENDING FROM CLINTON TO FORSYTH TO DECATUR TO BLUE MOUND...ANDMOVING EAST AT 50 MPH. THE PORTION OF THE LINE BETWEEN FORSYTH ANDMAROA IS THE MOST AT RISK FOR TORNADIC ACTIVITY.HAZARD...TORNADO.SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUTSHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGETO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE ISLIKELY.LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...DECATUR...MONTICELLO...OREANA...ARGENTA...WELDON...MOUNT ZION...LONGCREEK...CERRO GORDO...DE LAND...BEMENT...CLINTON LAKE DAM...LANE...ELWIN...DECATUR AIRPORT...DE WITT...OAKLEY...CISCO...HERVEY CITY...MILMINE AND LA PLACE.THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 72 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 132 AND 166. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 4, 2014 Author Share Posted June 4, 2014 Reissued BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTEDTORNADO WARNINGNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL211 AM CDT WED JUN 4 2014THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LINCOLN HAS ISSUED A* TORNADO WARNING FOR...NORTHEASTERN DE WITT COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS...SOUTHEASTERN MCLEAN COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS...PIATT COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS...* UNTIL 230 AM CDT.* AT 207 AM CDT...A SEVERE SQUALL LINE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOESTHAT MAY NOT BE VISIBLE DUE TO HEAVY RAIN WAS LOCATED ALONG A LINEEXTENDING FROM LE ROY TO WELDON TO 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MONTICELLOTO CERRO GORDO...AND MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.HAZARD...TORNADO.SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUTSHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGETO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE ISLIKELY.* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...MONTICELLO...FARMER CITY...BEMENT...WHITE HEATH...MANSFIELD...LODGE...GALESVILLE AND BELLFLOWER.THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 72 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 157 AND 172...ANDTHIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 74 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 150 AND 167. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 re: the NAM being way too far north...it's a bad model but this was definitely one of the situations where there was no reason to trust it...northern outlier + a general setup that almost always goes south of guidance = toss ended up with like 14 drops of rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 re: the NAM being way too far north...it's a bad model but this was definitely one of the situations where there was no reason to trust it...northern outlier + a general setup that almost always goes south of guidance = toss ended up with like 14 drops of rain Last night's 00z NAM had 1.4" of rain for you from 12z to 15z alone today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 Last night's 00z NAM had 1.4" of rain for you from 12z to 15z alone today. Even the 12z GFS took a fakeout shift north yesterday with the QPF bullseye. When it comes to summer MCS action, I always want to be on the southern end of the target zone and firmy in the warm sector. We do best when complexes ride SE from MSP or so. LOT did a pretty solid job downplaying the thunder chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 Debating a Midwest storm chase on the way home from KC to Tenn. We will stop in STL to decide over lunch. Hopefully some of the previous convection issues will start to resolve. 4km NAM would say chase. Everything else says just drive home. Outflow boundary will be in place well to the south of the synoptic warm front. Turning of surface winds, however, won't be as robust on the OFB. Still all models have some speed shear. NAM has sups going in IL/IN but better inflow Indiana only. HRRR says no! Surface winds stay veered and/or storms go too far south into hilly jungle. That said HRRR has somewhat favorable shear vector. Perhaps it is a day to use tried and true methods. Watch surface chart and visible satellite. I would not chase this on its own. However a more scenic drive home may be in order. After the Nebraska excitement, we just want more! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Doctor Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 Yeah this event was south of where it was predicted even in the 20Z outlook yesterday. The southern edge of the moderate did fine but the northeast two thirds or so of the high risk yesterday busted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 yeah, that high risk came very close to being shutout with all the reports right on the fringe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 About to expire but just saw it.yep it came through here...tornado sirens went off around two tons of thunder/lightning and rain... power even went out for awhile Sent from my SM-G900V Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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