A-L-E-K Posted June 2, 2014 Share Posted June 2, 2014 high-quality shower Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 2, 2014 Share Posted June 2, 2014 Slight risk it is. They took it waaaaaay south with this run too. hmmmm............ Wow. as was mentioned before, huge differences in CAPE for N Indiana and NW Ohio. The GFS keeps NW Ohio in the low 50's with rain. That would suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted June 2, 2014 Share Posted June 2, 2014 Wow. as was mentioned before, huge differences in CAPE for N Indiana and NW Ohio. The GFS keeps NW Ohio in the low 50's with rain. That would suck. Yeah the differences up here are pretty significant up here. SREF/NAM keep the SFC low along the I-80 corridor but there's not much support from any other models at this point EDIT: Scratch that, 12z GGEM takes the SFC low a little south of I-80 now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 2, 2014 Author Share Posted June 2, 2014 Updated day 2 had no real changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldlogin Posted June 2, 2014 Share Posted June 2, 2014 09Z SREF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 2, 2014 Share Posted June 2, 2014 hoosier special Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted June 2, 2014 Share Posted June 2, 2014 Euro at 60hr is a tick further north and slightly faster than the GFS, FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted June 2, 2014 Share Posted June 2, 2014 The slower and farther north NAM notwithstanding, this system tomorrow night-Weds is looking like a possibly significant forward propagating MCS that maintains and then even intensifies some on Weds as it heads east-southeast across the OV. Forward propagating Corfidi vector magnitudes on the GFS and Euro are 80-100 (!) kt on Wednesday morning and afternoon. I think that'll be the main show and tornado threat will be with embedded circulations. That's the scenario the global models have been consistently portraying the past few days and I think that's the most likely outcome. Given the very impressive low level shear, however, there could be significant spinups in the MCS. Will also have to watch for discrete development out ahead of the complex during the day on Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 2, 2014 Share Posted June 2, 2014 The differences between it and the GFS are pretty crazy for being 2 and a half days out. The 12z NAM shows what would have the potential to be a full blown tornado outbreak across IN on Wednesday. GFS shunts all of it down towards the OH River, and while still having impressive soundings, doesn't show the degree of veering with height that the NAM does with the wind fields. IDK, the GFS looked like it had pretty good directional shear similar to the NAM but I guess it might depend on where one is looking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 2, 2014 Share Posted June 2, 2014 yeah, this is going to be a monster MCS...should see some impressive reports Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 2, 2014 Share Posted June 2, 2014 The southern 1/3 of Iowa is gonna get smoked by that MCS tomorrow night. GFS and Euro have been pretty consistent in advertising that. To the north along the I-80 corridor the airmass will be less unstable, especially as you head east towards IL. I'm guessing the worst of the severe later tomorrow night will slam southeast IA, and then eastward towards the Peoria/Bloomington area. The QC and Chicago area may be spared the worst of the severe due to lack of instability. As far as Wed, the NAM is all alone in depicting a further north surface low/instability axis. It's not out of the question, but the fact that the GFS and Euro show an entirely different scenario it makes me lean away from the NAM at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 2, 2014 Share Posted June 2, 2014 The southern 1/3 of Iowa is gonna get smoked by that MCS tomorrow night. GFS and Euro have been pretty consistent in advertising that. To the north along the I-80 corridor the airmass will be less unstable, especially as you head east towards IL. I'm guessing the worst of the severe later tomorrow night will slam southeast IA, and then eastward towards the Peoria/Bloomington area. The QC and Chicago area may be spared the worst of the severe due to lack of instability. I agree with this...still a chance to MCS is organized enough to give up a respectable comma head but the main show will be well southwest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted June 2, 2014 Share Posted June 2, 2014 Southern Iowa should have some fun, but it's too bad it'll be late at night. My area will probably end up in a big blob of moderate to heavy rain on the northern side of the MCS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 2, 2014 Share Posted June 2, 2014 Southern Iowa should have some fun, but it's too bad it'll be late at night. My area will probably end up in a big blob of moderate rain on the northern side of the MCS. Kind of thinking there could be a serious wake low or two behind the monster MCS later tomorrow night/early Wed. Wouldn't be surprised to see some localized damaging wind gusts from the east somewhere behind that comma head at some point. Those are always fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 2, 2014 Share Posted June 2, 2014 Kind of thinking there could be a serious wake low or two behind the monster MCS later tomorrow night/early Wed. Wouldn't be surprised to see some localized damaging wind gusts from the east somewhere behind that comma head at some point. Those are always fun. yep, definitely gonna cling to that potential Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 2, 2014 Share Posted June 2, 2014 yep, definitely gonna cling to that potential 18z NAM continues to say cling away, sfc low move right over DKB/I-88. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 2, 2014 Share Posted June 2, 2014 18z NAM looks like it sped up a bit but still holding with the northern track. On another note, seeing progged 850 mb winds near 50 kts in the middle of the day in June is pretty impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 2, 2014 Share Posted June 2, 2014 NAM waiting until the last minute to give in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 2, 2014 Share Posted June 2, 2014 NAM waiting until the last minute to give in? It felt like winter comparing every new 3hr image vs the last few NAM runs. Scary shear profiles up this way along the warm front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 2, 2014 Share Posted June 2, 2014 Made me look at the NAM! haha. Moisture totals are pretty crazy looking. Pretty high shear crossing over the area Wednesday midday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Doctor Posted June 2, 2014 Share Posted June 2, 2014 Wow DVN wrote a fun discussion. Can't post from my phone though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 2, 2014 Share Posted June 2, 2014 DVN disco - 3:31pm TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...ASSESSING MUCH OF THE 12Z RUN MODELDATA...MOST ARE STILL INDICATING AN OMINOUS SIGNAL OF A COOL SEASONSTRENGTH WAVE THAT WILL BE ABLE TO UTILIZE WARM SEASONTHERMODYNAMICS. STRONG UPPER LEVEL WAVE NOW SEEN ON WATER VAPORIMAGERY ACRS WEST CENTRAL CA...WILL LOOK TO PROPAGATE INLAND ANDMAKE IT ACRS WESTERN INTO NORTH CENTRAL/CENTRAL IA BY 12Z WED. THISFEATURE WILL RIDE ON NORTHERN EDGE OF BUILDING WARM DOME/HIGH CAPEAIRMASS ACRS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MO...WITH STRONG LOW TO MIDLEVEL WINDS STREAMING ALONG WITH IT PROVIDING PLENTY OF DYNAMICS ANDSHEAR FROM NEB ACRS IA/NORTHERN MO THIS PERIOD. STILL SOME MODELUNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR NORTH OR SOUTH THE PRIME SVR WX AXIS ANDHEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL LAY OUT...BUT GROWING CONFIDENCE THAT THESWATH WILL EVENTUALLY LAY OUT ACRS SOME PORTION OF THE LOCAL FCSTAREA TUE NIGHT. THE 12Z GFS AND ESPECIALLY THE NAM HAVE SHIFTEDNORTH WITH FORCING AND INCOMING THTA-E FEED AND CONVERGENT RIBBON.IN FACT THE 12Z NAM HAS SOME OF THE HIGHEST LLVL THTA-E FEED ANDCONVERGENT SIGNALS I HAVE EVER SEEN ACRS CENTRAL IA AND THEN INTO THENORTH HALF OF THE DVN CWA ALONG AND NORTH OF I80 06Z-14Z WEDMORNING. SOUTHWESTERLY 60 KT LLJ JUST TO THE LEE OF THE UPPER LEVELWAVE. THE GFS AND NAM SUGGEST DEEP LAYER/0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 60-70+KTS IN THESE SAME AREAS...AND 300-600 M2/S2 0-3KM SRH VALUES ALONGINCOMING TRIPLE POINT WHICH THE 12Z GFS SAYS WILL BE 20-40 MILESSOUTH OF I80...AND THE NAM RIGHT ALONG I80 FROM 04Z THROUGH 12Z OR SOTUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING. ALL THIS ALONG AND NORTH OF A 3000+ J/KGMUCAPE POOL OVER MO. ALL MODES OF SVR WX POSSIBLE WITH THIS SET-UP...AS WELL AS INTENSE RAINFALL AS THE MODELS SUGGEST PRECIPITAL WATERFEED OF 1.8 TO 2 INCHES/UP TO 190% OF NORMAL/ UP INTO THIS SHEARWHICH WILL BE A LIKE A HAND RINGING OUT A SOAKING WET SPONGE. STILLDETAILS TO BE WORKED OUT...BUT COULD SEE THE SCENARIO OFSUPER-CELLULAR DEVELOPMENT OFF TO THE WEST ACRS NORTHERN KS/NEB INTOWESTERN IA TUE EVENING...THEN EVOLVING INTO A SVR MCS AS ITPROPAGATES ACRS IA INTO NORTHWESTERN/WEST CENTRAL IL. COULD BE ALINEAR ALMOST EARLY SEASON DERECHO TYPE FEATURE ALONG IT/S SOUTHHALF IF IT BOWS AND BECOMES MAINLY SFC BASED...80+ MPH DAMAGINGWINDS POSSIBLE LOOKING AT LATEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PROFILES. BESTCHC FOR THIS CURRENTLY WOULD LOOK TO OCCUR ALONG AND SOUTH OF I80 INTHE LOCAL FCST AREA. LOOKING AT SUCH STRONG SHEAR AND CAPE EVEN AFTERMIDNIGHT...TRIPLE POINT INTERACTION OR OTHER STORM OUTFLOW COULDPRODUCE MESOVORTICE TYPE TORNADOES INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WHICHWOULD BE DANGEROUS. IF INCOMING MCS IS MORE ELEVATED...COULD SEE THEMORE NORTHERN TRACK WHERE THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE DVN CWA GETSSVR STORMS AND VERY HEAVY RAIN MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO WEDMORNING...BEFORE EXITING OFF TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST TOWARD THENORTHERN OH RVR VALLEY ON WED. WIDESPREAD 1-2 INCH RAINFALL POSSIBLEBY MID WED MORNING...WITH LOCALIZED SWATHS OF 3-4 INCHES NOT OUT OFTHE QUESTION. IF THIS UNFOLDS...MANY RIVERS AND STREAMS INSOUTHEASTERN HALF OF IA INTO WESTERN IL/NORTHEASTERN MO WILL HAVESIGNIFICANT RISES...EVEN FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE. BUT ALSO COULD SEEA FAST MOVING BOW THAT DUMPS A QUICK 1-2 INCHES AND THEN IS GONE BYMID WED MORNING. CAP STRENGTH ACRS MO WILL BE CRITICAL FOR HOW FARNORTH OR SOUTH THE MAIN MCS OR EVEN MCC PROPAGATES. THE STRONG THCAP JUST TO THE SOUTH...MORE OF THE LOCAL AREA WILL GET IMPACTED BYTHE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX. A WEAKER CAP...THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR THESYSTEM TO PROPAGATE FURTHER SOUTHWARD MORE INTO MO AND IMPACT MAINLYMORE OF THE SOUTHERN DVN CWA. THE PRIME ACTION WINDOW FOR THE LOCALAREA APPEARS WILL BE FROM 10 PM TUE EVENING THROUGH 5 AM WEDMORNING. BUT WILL ALSO HAVE TO KEEP IN MIND LIFT OFF THE LEAD WARMAIR ADVECTION WING AND INITIAL THAT-E ADVECTION THAT MAY PRODUCESCTRD SVR CONVECTION INTO THE WEST CENTRAL OR SOUTHWESTERN CWA BY MIDTUE EVENING. MORE DETAILS AND RISK PLACEMENT TO RESOLVE OVER THE NEXT24 HRS...BUT MODERATE RISK APPEARS APPROPRIATE FOR SOUTH HALF OF THECWA. THE SVR MCS MAY BE OUT OF THE CWA BY MIDDAY WED...WITH WESTERNGRT LKS SFC RIDGE PROVIDING QUIETER AND COOLER WEATHER INTO THU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 2, 2014 Share Posted June 2, 2014 18z cycle not going to do anything to clear up the lingering differences on the larger scale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted June 2, 2014 Share Posted June 2, 2014 Just got 1.6 inches in the last 90 minutes or so and still coning down at a good clip. This reminds me of a mid July Florida set your watch by it 4 pm sea breeze storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted June 2, 2014 Share Posted June 2, 2014 18z cycle not going to do anything to clear up the lingering differences on the larger scale. 18z RGEM also takes the more northerly route, ala NAM. By midday Wednesday the surface low is straddling the MI/IN border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted June 2, 2014 Share Posted June 2, 2014 ILX mentioning all modes of severe weather likely in front of the line and then with the line a potential significant damaging wind threat for all of the cwa. Sent from my SM-G900V Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 3, 2014 Share Posted June 3, 2014 The formation of meso-vortices along the leading edge of the MCS is almost guaranteed tomorrow night with as much shear and instability that there will be in place out ahead of the complex. These features have a tendency to pull to their left (north) which could help areas a bit further north in the less unstable air get in on some severe. Just something to keep in mind for areas that are sort of on the northern side of things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted June 3, 2014 Share Posted June 3, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted June 3, 2014 Share Posted June 3, 2014 CWASPnam212F54.png Well, that'll raise some eyebrows... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 3, 2014 Share Posted June 3, 2014 And the NAM starts to cave (Re: SLP track) for Wednesday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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