andyhb Posted June 2, 2014 Share Posted June 2, 2014 0z NAM looks like a full blown nasty MCS or derecho riding the warm front dead across IA Tuesday night and into northern IL Wed morning. You'd get reinforcement on the northern edge to enhance storms later on too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 2, 2014 Author Share Posted June 2, 2014 Wouldn't be at all surprized to see SPC issue a moderate risk on the new day 2 and possibly new day 3 here in a few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted June 2, 2014 Share Posted June 2, 2014 Wouldn't be at all surprized to see SPC issue a moderate risk on the new day 2 and possibly new day 3 here in a few hours.I bet it will be a pretty good sized Moderate risk area.Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 2, 2014 Share Posted June 2, 2014 It's amazing how much the models are struggling with the handling of the current convection and the potential for convection this afternoon. But if nothing else, radar/satellite trends so far are certainly encouraging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 2, 2014 Author Share Posted June 2, 2014 Moderate risk issued on new day 2. DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOKNWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK1250 AM CDT MON JUN 02 2014VALID 031200Z - 041200Z...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NEB INTO NRN KS...SRNIA...NRN MO AND WRN IL......THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM A PORTION OF THE CNTRL ANDNRN PLAINS THROUGH THE MID-UPPER MS VALLEY AREAS......SUMMARY...NUMEROUS SEVERE STORMS ARE FORECAST TUESDAY FROM A PORTION OF THECENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGIONS. LARGEHAIL AND WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND ARE LIKELY...BUT TORNADOES WILLALSO BE POSSIBLE...INCLUDING POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STRONG TORNADOES....SYNOPSIS...SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY JUST OFF THE CA COAST WILL REACH THEGREAT BASIN OR CENTRAL ROCKIES BY 12Z TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILLTHEN RAPIDLY EJECT EWD THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS DURING THE DAY ANDINTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER MS VALLEY OVERNIGHT...DEAMPLIFYING IN THEPROCESS. A STRONG UPPER JET WITH 60-70 KT AT 500 MB WILL ACCOMPANYTHIS IMPULSE. AT THE SFC A FRONT WILL STALL FROM THE OH VALLEY WWDINTO NEB WHILE A LEE CYCLONE DEEPENS OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS INASSOCIATION WITH INCREASING WLYS ALOFT AND FORCING ATTENDING THEEJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS FEATURE WILL THEN SHIFT EWD ALONGTHE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT. TO THE SOUTH OFTHE SFC LOW A DRYLINE WILL SETUP ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINSTUESDAY AFTERNOON....CNTRL PLAINS THROUGH THE MID-UPPER MS VALLEY REGIONS...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE EVENTS TUESDAY WITH A THREATFOR VERY LARGE HAIL...TORNADOES AND WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND.A FEW STORMS MAY BE ONGOING EARLY TUESDAY WITHIN ZONE OF ISENTROPICLIFT AND THETA-E ADVECTION NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT AND ON NOSE OF ASLY LLJ ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN NEB INTO SD. RICH GULF MOISTURE WITHUPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 DEWPOINTS WILL RESIDE IN WARM SECTOR SOUTH OFTHE FRONT THAT WILL LIFT NWD INTO NEB AND SRN IA. SOME UNCERTAINTYEXISTS AS TO HOW FAR NORTH THIS BOUNDARY WILL ADVANCE...ESPECIALLYACROSS THE MS VALLEY WHERE INFLUENCE OF DOWNSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGHMAY LIMIT OR DELAY ITS NWD PROGRESS. MEANWHILE...PLUME OF STEEPMID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE EML WILL ADVECT THROUGHTHE CNTRL PLAINS MOIST WARM SECTOR WITHIN BELT OF STRENGTHENINGWLYS. THESE PROCESSES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG INSTABILITY SOUTH OFTHE FRONT /2000-3000 J/KG MLCAPE/ AS THE SFC LAYER WARMS. HEIGHTFALLS...STRENGTHENING SLY LLJ...AND BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATIONSHOULD RESULT IN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS TODEVELOP ALONG THAT PORTION OF THE FRONTAL ZONE CLOSER TO THE WARMSECTOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON.VERTICAL SHEAR INCREASING TO AOA 50 KT AND STRONG INSTABILITY WILLSUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS WITH ANY ACTIVITYDEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AND NEAR TRIPLE POINT AND POSSIBLYFARTHER SOUTH ALONG DRYLINE INTO WRN KS. VERY LARGE HAIL ANDDAMAGING WIND WILL BE LIKELY WITH INITIAL STORMS. ALSO STORM MOTIONVECTORS WOULD SUPPORT STORMS THAT DEVELOP ON WARM FRONT TO MOVE ELYOR ESELY...LIKELY REMAINING IN PROXIMITY TO THIS BOUNDARY WHEREINFLUX OF HIGH THETA-E AIR AND 0-2 KM HODOGRAPHS WILL BEMAXIMIZED...SUPPORTING A THREAT FOR TORNADOES...A FEW OF WHICH COULDBE STRONG. DURATION OF THE MORE SIGNIFICANT TORNADO THREAT WILLDEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY STORMS BEGIN TO CONGEAL AND GROW UPSCALE.STORMS OVER NEB SHOULD EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO AN MCS AND FORWARDPROPAGATE EWD...SUSTAINED BY THE STRENGTHENING SLY LLJ. GIVEN THEEXPECTED MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY AND NATURE OF THE VERTICAL WINDPROFILES...THREAT WILL EXIST FOR WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND WITH BOWECHO AND LEWP STRUCTURES AND EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY FROMPORTIONS OF NEB INTO THE MS VALLEY REGION....CNTRL AND NRN HIGH PLAINS...OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WY AND MT ANDSPREAD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS WHERE VERTICAL SHEAR AND INSTABILITYWILL SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAILAND DAMAGING WIND SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS...DIAL.. 06/02/2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 2, 2014 Share Posted June 2, 2014 It's looking very likely that there will be back to back moderate risks. The question I have is whether they will already pull the trigger on the day 3 outlook or wait until it gets into the day 2 range. My money would be on the latter but I'm usually not very good trying to predict SPC's thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 2, 2014 Author Share Posted June 2, 2014 It's looking very likely that there will be back to back moderate risks. The question I have is whether they will already pull the trigger on the day 3 outlook or wait until it gets into the day 2 range. My money would be on the latter but I'm usually not very good trying to predict SPC's thoughts. STORMS OVER NEB SHOULD EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO AN MCS AND FORWARDPROPAGATE EWD...SUSTAINED BY THE STRENGTHENING SLY LLJ. GIVEN THE EXPECTED MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY AND NATURE OF THE VERTICAL WIND PROFILES...THREAT WILL EXIST FOR WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND WITH BOW ECHO AND LEWP STRUCTURES AND EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY FROM PORTIONS OF NEB INTO THE MS VALLEY REGION. That part of the day 2 has me leaning to them going day 3 moderate. That to me basically says derecho without them actually saying it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 2, 2014 Author Share Posted June 2, 2014 Considering the new day 3 came out about 10 minutes later than normal, thought they were going moderate but they didn't. The text isn't even that long or detailed. DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOKNWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK0239 AM CDT MON JUN 02 2014VALID 041200Z - 051200Z...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE OHVALLEY......SUMMARY...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP PRIMARILY THROUGHTHE OHIO VALLEY REGION WEDNESDAY WITH A THREAT FOR MAINLY DAMAGINGWIND AND LARGE HAIL. OTHER MORE ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMSWILL BE POSSIBLE FROM SOUTHERN KANSAS INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND THENORTHERN THROUGH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AREAS....SYNOPSIS...PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER THE NRN HALF OF THECOUNTRY WEDNESDAY. A FAST MOVING LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILLCONTINUE THROUGH THE OH VALLEY...DEAMPLIFYING AS IT BECOMES ABSORBEDIN A BROADER SCALE UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER SERN CANADA. A FRONTALBOUNDARY WILL PERSIST FROM THE OH VALLEY SWWD INTO KS AND OK. MODELSDIFFER ON LOCATION/MOVEMENT OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH THE SPECTRALMODELS REMAINING FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE POSITION ACROSS THE OHVALLEY COMPARED TO THE NAM....OH VALLEY THROUGH CNTRL APPALACHIAN REGION...RICH GULF MOISTURE WILL RESIDE IN THE OH VALLEY WARM SECTOR SOUTH OFTHE FRONT SUPPORTING MODERATE INSTABILITY AS THE SFC LAYER WARMS. ANMCS WILL LIKELY BE IN PROGRESS NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY OVER THEMID-UPPER MS VALLEY REGION. ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP EWD THROUGH THE OHVALLEY DURING THE DAY WITHIN ZONE OF ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THEPROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ON NOSE OF ATTENDANT LLJ. STORMSWILL INTENSIFY AND REDEVELOP AS THE WARM SECTOR DESTABILIZES...ANDWIND PROFILES WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS AND BOWINGSEGMENTS AS SOME STORMS GROW UPSCALE INTO MCS CLUSTERS. DAMAGINGWIND...LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE....DIAL.. 06/02/2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted June 2, 2014 Share Posted June 2, 2014 Slight risk it is. They took it waaaaaay south with this run too. hmmmm............ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 2, 2014 Author Share Posted June 2, 2014 Slight risk it is. They took it waaaaaay south with this run too. hmmmm............ With where the day 2 risk area is, that was something that surprized me too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted June 2, 2014 Share Posted June 2, 2014 Line coming out of Iowa showing some signs of strengthening...particularly in the vicinity of QC ....partial clearing here with racing lower level clouds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 2, 2014 Share Posted June 2, 2014 Slight risk it is. They took it waaaaaay south with this run too. hmmmm............ They're basically going with the non-NAM consensus which is probably not dumb at this point. Although an early peek at the 12z NAM suggests it's going to remain on the northern side yet again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 2, 2014 Share Posted June 2, 2014 I'm a bit uncomfortable using it but man, 12z NAM forecast soundings look impressive around here on Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 2, 2014 Share Posted June 2, 2014 NAM will end up laughably far N Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted June 2, 2014 Share Posted June 2, 2014 They're basically going with the non-NAM consensus which is probably not dumb at this point. Although an early peek at the 12z NAM suggests it's going to remain on the northern side yet again. Roger that, thanks for some clarification. Haven't been in a position to be able to pull up some models yet this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 2, 2014 Share Posted June 2, 2014 We'll see what the other 12z runs do but there's literally a 200 mile or more north/south gap between the old 00z GFS/ECMWF and the 12z NAM wrt the position of the surface low at 00z Thursday. Although I'm skeptical of the NAM it should be getting to the point where it wouldn't whiff that badly so perhaps we will ultimately end up with some sort of weighted compromise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted June 2, 2014 Share Posted June 2, 2014 We'll see what the other 12z runs do but there's literally a 200 mile or more north/south gap between the old 00z GFS/ECMWF and the 12z NAM wrt the position of the surface low at 00z Thursday. Although I'm skeptical of the NAM it should be getting to the point where it wouldn't whiff that badly so perhaps we will ultimately end up with some sort of weighted compromise. The NAM is really far north with the surface low? What is this January? Definitely interested to see remaining 12z guidance and then next couple NAM runs. I'll be in Cincinnati on Wednesday so pulling for the GFS The NAM does look very impressive though. CIPS analog guidance (based on GFS) is waving the red flag as well.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted June 2, 2014 Share Posted June 2, 2014 12z NAM takes the SFC low along I-80. 12z GFS takes the surface low from Central IL to Cincy. Take your pick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted June 2, 2014 Share Posted June 2, 2014 nice little bowing structure headed my way....should have some decent gusts.... T 78 -- DP 67 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 2, 2014 Share Posted June 2, 2014 one heack of an mcs signature for wed evening into west central IL...should be a doozy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 2, 2014 Share Posted June 2, 2014 Really impressive winds out here with this line even with no lightning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 2, 2014 Share Posted June 2, 2014 Really impressive winds out here with this line even with no lightning. nice shape but returns continue to struggle...shame we couldn't get a couple more hours to destabilize before it hit anyways, looks like it's heading right for me as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted June 2, 2014 Share Posted June 2, 2014 Really impressive winds out here with this line even with no lightning. yeah....had a few gusts prolly in the 50 range....great one to stand out in the yard for and get walloped with no lightning concern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 2, 2014 Share Posted June 2, 2014 I'm a bit uncomfortable using it but man, 12z NAM forecast soundings look impressive around here on Wednesday. The differences between it and the GFS are pretty crazy for being 2 and a half days out. The 12z NAM shows what would have the potential to be a full blown tornado outbreak across IN on Wednesday. GFS shunts all of it down towards the OH River, and while still having impressive soundings, doesn't show the degree of veering with height that the NAM does with the wind fields. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 2, 2014 Share Posted June 2, 2014 Ref gradient on the leading edge tightening up now. Should be good for southern half Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 2, 2014 Share Posted June 2, 2014 decent little pocket of shear/instability over NE IL and a micro up-tic in reflectivities EDIT: ninja'd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted June 2, 2014 Share Posted June 2, 2014 one heack of an mcs signature for wed evening into west central IL...should be a doozy Yea it looks really impressive...Local Mets starting to talk this one up Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 2, 2014 Share Posted June 2, 2014 skies darkening rapidly to the west...given the movement and obs, i'll probably be able to feel the building sway with this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted June 2, 2014 Share Posted June 2, 2014 The differences between it and the GFS are pretty crazy for being 2 and a half days out. The 12z NAM shows what would have the potential to be a full blown tornado outbreak across IN on Wednesday. GFS shunts all of it down towards the OH River, and while still having impressive soundings, doesn't show the degree of veering with height that the NAM does with the wind fields. Yeah, I believe thats the dilemma right now. I was surprised with the differences, as well. Might take another day for the models to come to a consensus with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 2, 2014 Share Posted June 2, 2014 This was a sounding off the 6z NAM for pretty much right where I live at 21z on Weds.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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