MJO812 Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 Here is the latest HWRF . West from the recent run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 Here is the latest HWRF . West from the recent run. That's LMAO-worthy. Arthur won't look anything like that after it passes Hatteras. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 That's LMAO-worthy. Arthur won't look anything like that after it passes Hatteras. One thing that we know is that SST are running as much as 5 degrees Celcius above normal off the east coast. The HWRF is really blowing this up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 This is from Sir Forkyfork from the SNE tropical thread. i'm leaning west. i think arthur will keep pumping the ridge east of it The stronger it gets , the closer to the coast it will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 One thing that we know is that SST are running as much as 5 degrees Celcius above normal off the east coast. The HWRF is really blowing this up. The HWRF and GFDL often deepen storms way too much. Remember when it had the crazy runs with Irene, slamming a 930mb storm into Manhattan and Cat 3 winds across the entire area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 Should be a great holiday out on the Hamptons Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 The HWRF and GFDL often deepen storms way too much. Remember when it had the crazy runs with Irene, slamming a 930mb storm into Manhattan and Cat 3 winds across the entire area? The 00z ECMWF brings the storm down to 978mb. It's not really that much different. It's just further southeast and honestly an outlier at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 Also, as the trough approaches from the west, SW shear will likely impact Arthur to a greater degree and cap the extent to which it can strengthen. So the idea of it having a well defined eye east of Virginia Beach is almost ludicrous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 By the way this graphic is already circulating around facebook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 Euro time, ah this is the most I've been excited for a model run since winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 Looks like the 12z JMA has also made a substanital shift west with landfall near Wilmington. This looks like Floyd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 Also, as the trough approaches from the west, SW shear will likely impact Arthur to a greater degree and cap the extent to which it can strengthen. So the idea of it having a well defined eye east of Virginia Beach is almost ludicrous. Well it depends on Arthur's movement relative to the shear, we've seen storms sometimes get aided by it. It looks like Arthur will ride the Gulf Stream and should still be safely offshore to avoid significant impacts. The closer to shore though the more its indirect impacts will affect us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 The front is slower on the Euro than 00z and also Arthur is further south so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted July 1, 2014 Author Share Posted July 1, 2014 Well it depends on Arthur's movement relative to the shear, we've seen storms sometimes get aided by it. It looks like Arthur will ride the Gulf Stream and should still be safely offshore to avoid significant impacts. The closer to shore though the more its indirect impacts will affect us. define "avoid significant impacts" for the entire metro region including the beaches and coastal waters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 The 12z Euro so far is about 50 miles SSW of it's previous 12z Thursday position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 Should be a great holiday out on the Hamptons Where was it located in the previous few frames like 72 and 78 hours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 Significant shift west this run. Pretty uncommon for the Euro inside of 72 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYC Weather Lover Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 Big shift this run and much stronger. Pretty uncommon for the Euro inside of 72 hours.what kind of shift, west or east?(or same?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 Where was it located in the previous few frames like 72 and 78 hours? Looks like it tracks there from around Nags Head, NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 define "avoid significant impacts" for the entire metro region including the beaches and coastal waters What would normally be expected from a direct impact from a tropical system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 Looks like it tracks there from around Nags Head, NC. I was wondering how far west the significant rains got. Looks like the eastern half of Long Island is a washout no matter what. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 The center is almost clipping Charleston Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 what kind of shift, west or east?(or same?) It's a shift southwest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 Arthur undergoes some baroclinic enhancement being underneath right-entrance region of upper-level jet streak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 I was wondering how far west the significant rains got. Looks like the eastern half of Long Island is a washout no matter what. Verbatim that would probably be a tropical storm, 40-50 mph wind along southern Suffolk County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 Something is up with the Euro on StormVista. It's going from a very intense looking cyclone with tightly compacted isobars to a weak looking barely depression in six hours and the back to looking intense again on the next panel and then back to looking weak again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 Either way at 12z Friday the center is about 75 miles southwest of 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 This run is going to skirt the outerbanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 The big differences this run are that it's almost 12 hours slower with the progression of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 The big differences this run are that it's almost 12 hours slower with the progression of the storm. Looks like this will miss the area on this run through 84 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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