PB GFI Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 Holding out for NMN6 Thankfully a WHIFF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 Thankfully a WHIFF Not the member that I was rooting for. It's the only one that shows a direct impact from the core. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 The shortwave swinging through the plains is stronger this run and also a bit slower so far as compared to the 06z GFS. The timing of that trough is going to be the main player on how close Arthur can make it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 The timing is about 3 hours slower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 Looks like it will become a hurricane later on in the week http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/145625.shtml?5-daynl?large#contents The outflow is improving around the storm now, so we should start seeing convection fire north of the center soon. When that happens, this can start taking off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 Landfall near OBX 09z Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 The vorticy is stronger over the lakes thir run. It's too bad that we couldn't have gotten a strong S/W to phase with it and tug it back to the coast. Going to be a close miss. Friday is definitly ruined if you take the 12z GFS verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 GFS gets some of the bands into the coastal sections from the actual tropical system on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 GFS gets some of the bands into the coastal sections from the actual tropical system on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 The outer bands make it as far inland as Philly and the core misses the coast by less than 50 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 It was encouraging to see the 12z GFS slow down a few hours today with the progression of the front. Arther itself was just a tick east of 06z down south but in nearly an identical position near OBX. All we need now is for the front to slow down by about another 6 hours and the core should make it onshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 It was encouraging to see the 12z GFS slow down a few hours today with the progression of the front. Arther itself was just a tick east of 06z down south but in nearly an identical position near OBX. All we need now is for the front to slow down by about another 6 hours and the core should make it onshore. Why would you want the core to move onshore? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 The 12z GGEM is about 100 miles SW of it's position at 00z Friday vs 00z GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 Why would you want the core to move onshore? For the sake of breaking records....never heard of a July 4th cane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 The 12z GGEM shifted about 150 miles southwest so far this run in total and is slower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 The positioning on the GGEM is now just east of the 12z GFS and is also quite a bit slower so it's futher south at the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 Well that was a big shift west early on. Good trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 For the sake of breaking records....never heard of a July 4th cane. So what, why would anyone wish for a cane to impact already vulnerable regions impacted by Sandy. Luckily it'll stay away but not without indirect impacts at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted July 1, 2014 Author Share Posted July 1, 2014 So what, why would anyone wish for a cane to impact already vulnerable regions impacted by Sandy. Luckily it'll stay away but not without indirect impacts at least. 12Z GFS = complete July 4th washout along the shore from long island south with closed beaches and restrictions on boating in many locations if this verifies the further inland you go July 4th less of any impact http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014070112/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_13.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 I do wonder how strong Arthur can become. Intensity forecasts haven't exactly proven to be very accurate as we've already seen in the east pacific this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 12Z GFS = complete July 4th washout along the shore from long island south with closed beaches and restrictions on boating in many locations if this verifies the further inland you go July 4th less of any impact http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014070112/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_13.png Careful, you'll angry the natives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 stronger arthur = stronger ridge = closer track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 Sort of interesting that the model that's known for having a progressive bias is so far NW. Not sure if the bias also applies to summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 stronger arthur = stronger ridge = closer track Latent heat from the storm pumping the ridge up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 Well that was a big shift west early on. Good trends. I don't want a west trend, and I know that goes for a lot of other people, particularly those who live near coastlines still recovering from Sandy and remain vulnerable to even glancing blows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 Latent heat from the storm pumping the ridge up? Yes. A stronger ridge also slows down the approaching trough and recurve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 Looks like Arthur is getting ready to take off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 I don't want a west trend, and I know that goes for a lot of other people, particularly those who live near coastlines still recovering from Sandy and remain vulnerable to even glancing blows. Well regardless of what anyone wants or doesn't want none of us have any control ove it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 Sort of interesting that the model that's known for having a progressive bias is so far NW. Not sure if the bias also applies to summer. nav_precip_mslp_east_14.png Global models are not great with tropicals for the most part, if the next round of hurrican models shift west I'll start biting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 One GFS ensemble lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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