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Hurricane/Tropical Season 2014


NEG NAO

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Thankfully the center is way WIDE RIGHT .  The S flow ahead of this will create some nice T storms through the area as the front moves through .The heavy T Storms will make it all the way through onto Long Island , This will not be a case where they die on the coastal plain .

 

Should get some nice surf , but dangerous rip currents  out of this . 

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Seems like this system will have a large eye if it ever is able to get its act going. Quite a large center of circulation on latest radar imagery.

did you get approval to start a new thread so soon after Sickman said we are going to keep the discussion in here  until the actual storm is a threat to the area - the storm hasn't  been officially given a name and there are alot more questions then answers as of right now - email Sickman to get the ok - this is confusing now with 2 different threads for a storm that isn't even a threat yet IMO

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did you get approval to start a new thread so soon after Sickman said we are going to keep the discussion in here  until the actual storm is a threat to the area - the storm hasn't  been officially given a name and there are alot more questions then answers as of right now - email Sickman to get the ok - this is confusing now with 2 different threads for a storm that isn't even a threat yet IMO

That other thread is for impacts not directly related to the TC. It's pretty much a lock that we're going to get the heavy rains from the PRE unless something dramatically changes.

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You should probably read the entire thread description.

 

The indirect impacts are less than 24 hours away. It's a good time IMO to start a thread for it and I did. The moderators are free to delete it if they choose.

 

Then just have one thread for TD#1 and all its direct and indirect effects. No need for 2 of them

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Then just have one thread for TD#1 and all its direct and indirect effects. No need for 2 of them

One thread for the PRE - Heavy rainfall/Flash flooding

 

A second thread would become necessary if any of the hurricane models come close to verifying. There we could discuss strong winds, storm surge, ect. Since it seems like that part will be too far east we have the other thread. This clearly isn't a fantasy storm and the PRE will clearly have a high impact on the region.

 

We've had threads during winter months for flurries. Lay OFF.

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I don't understand what the problem is. In the past we've always had multiple threads whenever the area has had a big impact from a TS or Hurricane. The second thread may never become necessary since the system looks to pass too far east. The thread we have now is for the PRE and the moisture related to TD #1 as it interacts with the front.

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I don't understand what the problem is. In the past we've always had multiple threads whenever the area has had a big impact from a TS or Hurricane. The second thread may never become necessary since the system looks to pass too far east. The thread we have now is for the PRE and the moisture related to TD #1 as it interacts with the front.

go back to sunday night and re- read Sickmans instructions and it will be obvious - case closed - I am just going to continue discussing the event here - anyways we are looking at quite a bit of precip from tomorrow through Friday afternoon according to the GFS as the tropical moisture from the now depression rides up the coast and becomes entrained in the moisture feed

 

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=kewr

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I don't understand what the problem is. In the past we've always had multiple threads whenever the area has had a big impact from a TS or Hurricane. The second thread may never become necessary since the system looks to pass too far east. The thread we have now is for the PRE and the moisture related to TD #1 as it interacts with the front.

A couple of inches of rain won't be a big impact anywhere given how dry it has been. The actual storm has very little chance of impacting us directly. Flooding won't be a problem unless 3-5" of rain falls in 6 hours or so. This looks to be run of the mill for this area and might actually be beneficial since we've had little rain over the last few weeks.

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Ok to get this thread back on track here is the official link to the National Hurricane Center - so you can read about and track the storm - question is how soon and or if this will actually become a named storm Arthur and  if as some have suggested becomes a CAT 1 hurricane near the outer banks of NC in a few days main high  impact in the region will be high surf which will be dangerous for beach goers swimmers  and boaters up and down the coast - great for highly experienced surfers

 

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

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A couple of inches of rain won't be a big impact anywhere given how dry it has been. The actual storm has very little chance of impacting us directly. Flooding won't be a problem unless 3-5" of rain falls in 6 hours or so. This looks to be run of the mill for this area and might actually be beneficial since we've had little rain over the last few weeks.

Impacts are increased because it's the biggest beach going week of the season. If nothing else it's going to ruin a few beach days and make for some dangerous rip currents.

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We have Arthur

 

 

Tropical Storm ARTHUR Public Advisory
 

000WTNT31 KNHC 011500TCPAT1BULLETINTROPICAL STORM ARTHUR ADVISORY NUMBER   3NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL0120141100 AM EDT TUE JUL 01 2014...DEPRESSION BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM OFFSHORE OF THE CENTRALFLORIDA ATLANTIC COAST...SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION-----------------------------------------------LOCATION...27.6N 79.3WABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDAABOUT 80 MI...130 KM NNW OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLANDMAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HPRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/HMINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHESWATCHES AND WARNINGS--------------------CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...NONE.SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...* EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM FORT PIERCE TO FLAGLER BEACHA TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AREPOSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS.INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATESSHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITORPRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTOFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THEUNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONALMETEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK------------------------------AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR WASLOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.3 WEST. ARTHUR ISMOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/H...AND THIS GENERALMOTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARDTHE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THETROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE AND MOVE EASTOF THE EAST-CENTRAL COAST OF FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  THESYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PASS EAST OF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAYAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHERGUSTS.  ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48HOURS.  DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...SETTLEMENT POINT OBSERVATIONSITE ON GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 38 MPH...61KM/H...WITH GUSTS TO 44 MPH...70 KM/H.TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KMFROM THE CENTER.THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND----------------------WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCHAREA BY LATE TODAY.RAINFALL...ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALLACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN FLORIDAPENINSULA. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHWEDNESDAY.  RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUMAMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMASTHROUGH WEDNESDAY.
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Do you really need to be told that the NAM has no skill in forecasting tropical systems?

At hour 60 it has two seperate lows. We :lol: and toss.

Correct me if I'm wrong but I believe you where hyping it when yesterday is showed all this rain...again this is a weather board I can post the info. Also wed looks real nice and not the washout you where forecasting for the area

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Correct me if I'm wrong but I believe you where hyping it when yesterday is showed all this rain...again this is a weather board I can post the info. Also wed looks real nice and not the washout you where forecasting for the area

I am correcting you because you would be wrong. The 12z GFS was the one showing the rain yesterday. You keep saying it's going to be a nice weekend. Nobody is denying that, From Saturday on.

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