PB GFI Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 Thankfully the center is way WIDE RIGHT . The S flow ahead of this will create some nice T storms through the area as the front moves through .The heavy T Storms will make it all the way through onto Long Island , This will not be a case where they die on the coastal plain . Should get some nice surf , but dangerous rip currents out of this . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted July 1, 2014 Author Share Posted July 1, 2014 Seems like this system will have a large eye if it ever is able to get its act going. Quite a large center of circulation on latest radar imagery. did you get approval to start a new thread so soon after Sickman said we are going to keep the discussion in here until the actual storm is a threat to the area - the storm hasn't been officially given a name and there are alot more questions then answers as of right now - email Sickman to get the ok - this is confusing now with 2 different threads for a storm that isn't even a threat yet IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 did you get approval to start a new thread so soon after Sickman said we are going to keep the discussion in here until the actual storm is a threat to the area - the storm hasn't been officially given a name and there are alot more questions then answers as of right now - email Sickman to get the ok - this is confusing now with 2 different threads for a storm that isn't even a threat yet IMO That other thread is for impacts not directly related to the TC. It's pretty much a lock that we're going to get the heavy rains from the PRE unless something dramatically changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 That other thread is for impacts not directly related to the TC. It's pretty much a lock that we're going to get the heavy rains from the PRE unless something dramatically changes. Probably shouldn't label it TD#1 then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 Probably shouldn't label it TD#1 then You should probably read the entire thread description. The indirect impacts are less than 24 hours away. It's a good time IMO to start a thread for it and I did. The moderators are free to delete it if they choose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 You should probably read the entire thread description. The indirect impacts are less than 24 hours away. It's a good time IMO to start a thread for it and I did. The moderators are free to delete it if they choose. Then just have one thread for TD#1 and all its direct and indirect effects. No need for 2 of them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 Then just have one thread for TD#1 and all its direct and indirect effects. No need for 2 of them One thread for the PRE - Heavy rainfall/Flash flooding A second thread would become necessary if any of the hurricane models come close to verifying. There we could discuss strong winds, storm surge, ect. Since it seems like that part will be too far east we have the other thread. This clearly isn't a fantasy storm and the PRE will clearly have a high impact on the region. We've had threads during winter months for flurries. Lay OFF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cjr231 Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 As someone who just reads and observes for the most part, just wanted to say that the more than one thread seems silly and is extremely confusing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 I don't understand what the problem is. In the past we've always had multiple threads whenever the area has had a big impact from a TS or Hurricane. The second thread may never become necessary since the system looks to pass too far east. The thread we have now is for the PRE and the moisture related to TD #1 as it interacts with the front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted July 1, 2014 Author Share Posted July 1, 2014 I don't understand what the problem is. In the past we've always had multiple threads whenever the area has had a big impact from a TS or Hurricane. The second thread may never become necessary since the system looks to pass too far east. The thread we have now is for the PRE and the moisture related to TD #1 as it interacts with the front. go back to sunday night and re- read Sickmans instructions and it will be obvious - case closed - I am just going to continue discussing the event here - anyways we are looking at quite a bit of precip from tomorrow through Friday afternoon according to the GFS as the tropical moisture from the now depression rides up the coast and becomes entrained in the moisture feed http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=kewr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 go back to sunday night and re- read Sickmans instructions and it will be obvious - case closed - I am just going to continue discussing the event here You're free to do whatever you like. That was Sunday night, it's now Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 Why are there multiple threads for this? It makes no sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 Why are there multiple threads for this? It makes no sense. One is a general tropical discussion and the other is storm specific? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 I edited the other thread description. Hopefully that aleviates the confusion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 I don't understand what the problem is. In the past we've always had multiple threads whenever the area has had a big impact from a TS or Hurricane. The second thread may never become necessary since the system looks to pass too far east. The thread we have now is for the PRE and the moisture related to TD #1 as it interacts with the front. A couple of inches of rain won't be a big impact anywhere given how dry it has been. The actual storm has very little chance of impacting us directly. Flooding won't be a problem unless 3-5" of rain falls in 6 hours or so. This looks to be run of the mill for this area and might actually be beneficial since we've had little rain over the last few weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted July 1, 2014 Author Share Posted July 1, 2014 Ok to get this thread back on track here is the official link to the National Hurricane Center - so you can read about and track the storm - question is how soon and or if this will actually become a named storm Arthur and if as some have suggested becomes a CAT 1 hurricane near the outer banks of NC in a few days main high impact in the region will be high surf which will be dangerous for beach goers swimmers and boaters up and down the coast - great for highly experienced surfers http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 A couple of inches of rain won't be a big impact anywhere given how dry it has been. The actual storm has very little chance of impacting us directly. Flooding won't be a problem unless 3-5" of rain falls in 6 hours or so. This looks to be run of the mill for this area and might actually be beneficial since we've had little rain over the last few weeks. Impacts are increased because it's the biggest beach going week of the season. If nothing else it's going to ruin a few beach days and make for some dangerous rip currents. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 Ok to get this thread back on track here is the official link to the National Hurricane Center - so you can read about and track the storm http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ The 11AM advisory will be out soon. IR presentation has improved markedly in the past few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 Starting to see some decent banding on the southern quadrents Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 We have Arthur Tropical Storm ARTHUR Public Advisory 000WTNT31 KNHC 011500TCPAT1BULLETINTROPICAL STORM ARTHUR ADVISORY NUMBER 3NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL0120141100 AM EDT TUE JUL 01 2014...DEPRESSION BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM OFFSHORE OF THE CENTRALFLORIDA ATLANTIC COAST...SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION-----------------------------------------------LOCATION...27.6N 79.3WABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDAABOUT 80 MI...130 KM NNW OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLANDMAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HPRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/HMINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHESWATCHES AND WARNINGS--------------------CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...NONE.SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...* EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM FORT PIERCE TO FLAGLER BEACHA TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AREPOSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS.INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATESSHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITORPRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTOFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THEUNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONALMETEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK------------------------------AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR WASLOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.3 WEST. ARTHUR ISMOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/H...AND THIS GENERALMOTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARDTHE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THETROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE AND MOVE EASTOF THE EAST-CENTRAL COAST OF FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THESYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PASS EAST OF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAYAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHERGUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48HOURS. DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...SETTLEMENT POINT OBSERVATIONSITE ON GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 38 MPH...61KM/H...WITH GUSTS TO 44 MPH...70 KM/H.TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KMFROM THE CENTER.THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND----------------------WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCHAREA BY LATE TODAY.RAINFALL...ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALLACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN FLORIDAPENINSULA. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHWEDNESDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUMAMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMASTHROUGH WEDNESDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 Looks like it will become a hurricane later on in the week http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/145625.shtml?5-daynl?large#contents Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 Holding out for NMN6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 12z nam has Arthur way off shore... Friday turns out to be a nice day.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 12z nam has Arthur way off shore... Friday turns out to be a nice day.. Nam sucked in the winter. Can it be right in the summer?Time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 12z nam has Arthur way off shore... Friday turns out to be a nice day.. Do you really need to be told that the NAM has no skill in forecasting tropical systems? At hour 60 it has two seperate lows. We and toss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 Nam sucked in the winter. Can it be right in the summer?Time will tell. The only advantage that I give the NAM is placement of the heaviest convection the next two days but we've already seen large run to run swings. That model has been running mysteriously dry all season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 Do you really need to be told that the NAM has no skill in forecasting tropical systems? At hour 60 it has two seperate lows. We and toss. Correct me if I'm wrong but I believe you where hyping it when yesterday is showed all this rain...again this is a weather board I can post the info. Also wed looks real nice and not the washout you where forecasting for the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 Holding out for NMN6 Wow, is that showing Arthur missing the cold front? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 The 12z GFS seems to have initialized Arthur well. It has a very small but intense area of strong convection near the center. Matches up well with the current IR presentation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 Correct me if I'm wrong but I believe you where hyping it when yesterday is showed all this rain...again this is a weather board I can post the info. Also wed looks real nice and not the washout you where forecasting for the area I am correcting you because you would be wrong. The 12z GFS was the one showing the rain yesterday. You keep saying it's going to be a nice weekend. Nobody is denying that, From Saturday on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.