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Hurricane/Tropical Season 2014


NEG NAO

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Some thunderstorms isn't a washout. If the inch of rain falls in an hour under the thunderstorm and the rest of the day is rain-free, that's not a washout. The washout hits Thursday night and Friday with the training along the stalled front.

If you look at the various modeling today the actvity develops early in the day and then persists. It's definitly concentrated west of NYC at this time.

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For one small area it may be a wash out. For 90% of us it's not even close. But please lets move on this is getting ridiculous

Agreed, there are times where there's a big rainstorm and then we can all say "okay it's a washout". This is not one of those times (at least for Wednesday). Scattered storms that could dump heavy rain on some areas and not others is NOT a washout. Sorry...now let's move on and actually talk about this tropical threat.

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And why are we discussing this rain fall in the tropical thread?

simple because the moisture from the potential Arthur should become entrained up the frontal boundary- read the Hydro section of Uptons forecast -

 

HYDROLOGY  

 

NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.  

 

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN IN SHOWERS AND  

THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN WED AND FRI ASSOCIATED WITH A PRE-FRONTAL  

TROUGH WED AND THU AND THEN A COLD FRONT THU NIGHT/FRI. MOISTURE  

FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AS WELL AS THE TROPICAL WAVE OFF THE EAST  

COAST IS EXPECTED BECOME ENTRAINED UP THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THERE  

IS UNCERTAINTY WITH THE LOCATION OF THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL  

AND WE HAVE BEEN FAIRLY DRY THE LAST FEW WEEKS WITH RIVERS RUNNING  

LOW SO DON'T HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN THE HWO JUST YET.  

HOWEVER...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF RAINFALL  

OVER THIS THREE DAY PERIOD.  

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18z gfs def with a jog east with everything….heaviest rain focused on the jersey shore….see if this is a start of a trend 

It's not east so much as it just doesn't really develop on this run beyond a depression. It meanders around for long enough that the front can push east.

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