IsentropicLift Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Some thunderstorms isn't a washout. If the inch of rain falls in an hour under the thunderstorm and the rest of the day is rain-free, that's not a washout. The washout hits Thursday night and Friday with the training along the stalled front. If you look at the various modeling today the actvity develops early in the day and then persists. It's definitly concentrated west of NYC at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYC Weather Lover Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 For one small area it may be a wash out. For 90% of us it's not even close. But please lets move on this is getting ridiculous Agreed, there are times where there's a big rainstorm and then we can all say "okay it's a washout". This is not one of those times (at least for Wednesday). Scattered storms that could dump heavy rain on some areas and not others is NOT a washout. Sorry...now let's move on and actually talk about this tropical threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Papa Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 So what are the chances that we are going to get hit by this thing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 So what are the chances that we are going to get hit by this thing? None. It's the slow moving front that gets us... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYC Weather Lover Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 None. It's the slow moving front that gets us... What I think is confusing people is that we are talking about all of this in the hurricane/tropical storm thread. If it's just a cold front, should we continue this conversation in the June 2014 thread (soon to be July)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Big uptick on the 15z SREF with the PRE (For Caldwell) 2 members >/= 3.00" 4 members >/= 2.00" 11 members >/= 1.00" 10 members 0.50-0.99" 0 members 0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Max plume on the 15z SREF at KLGA was 3.82" These members are obviously subject to large error but it's cool to see some of the higher totals showing up as the signal gradually increases for a widespread heavy rainfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 And why are we discussing this rain fall in the tropical thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYC Weather Lover Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 And why are we discussing this rain fall in the tropical thread? EXACTLY what I just said! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/hmt/seminar_files/PRE_NWS_Teletraining.ppt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 And why are we discussing this rain fall in the tropical thread?Because it's a PRE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 And why are we discussing this rain fall in the tropical thread? It's a shame that on June 30th the mods have to go through threads to delete whining and troll posts. I guess some people just haven't learned from last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 It's a shame that on June 30th the mods have to go through threads to delete whining and troll posts. I guess some people just haven't learned from last winter. Wait til there's a real Tropical threat...you ain't seen nothing yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted June 30, 2014 Author Share Posted June 30, 2014 And why are we discussing this rain fall in the tropical thread? simple because the moisture from the potential Arthur should become entrained up the frontal boundary- read the Hydro section of Uptons forecast - HYDROLOGY NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN WED AND FRI ASSOCIATED WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WED AND THU AND THEN A COLD FRONT THU NIGHT/FRI. MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AS WELL AS THE TROPICAL WAVE OFF THE EAST COAST IS EXPECTED BECOME ENTRAINED UP THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH THE LOCATION OF THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL AND WE HAVE BEEN FAIRLY DRY THE LAST FEW WEEKS WITH RIVERS RUNNING LOW SO DON'T HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN THE HWO JUST YET. HOWEVER...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER THIS THREE DAY PERIOD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 18z gfs def with a jog east with everything….heaviest rain focused on the jersey shore….see if this is a start of a trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 18z gfs def with a jog east with everything….heaviest rain focused on the jersey shore….see if this is a start of a trend It's not east so much as it just doesn't really develop on this run beyond a depression. It meanders around for long enough that the front can push east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 21z SREF's are even wetter. Love just NW of 95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 TD1 as of 11PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 JB http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/06/30/bastardi-potential-nightmare-a-tropical-cyclone-coming-at-the-outer-banks-on-the-july-4-weekend/ Compared to Alex in 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYC Weather Lover Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 JB http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/06/30/bastardi-potential-nightmare-a-tropical-cyclone-coming-at-the-outer-banks-on-the-july-4-weekend/ Compared to Alex in 2014 Just wanted to correct the date of Alex to 2004. No hard feelings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 Just wanted to correct the date of Alex to 2004. No hard feelings Lol sorry. Worked all day. Zzz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 Line to the briefing from the NWS Mt. Holly office http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/briefing/packages/current_briefing.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 It's too bad that the HWRF is such a terrible model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 ^^^ That would have been awesome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 ^^^ That would have been awesome FWIW the GFDL (also a terrible model) takes it down into the low 970's near the same spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 the only thing that gives that merit is that the water is quite warm in that location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 Shouldn't these posts be in the TD1 thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 the only thing that gives that merit is that the water is quite warm in that location. The 00z ECMWF actually has it down to 978mb on its closest approach to our region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 Shouldn't these posts be in the TD1 thread? That thread was made to disucss non-tropical impacts such as flash flooding related to the pre. We still haven't created a thread for the actual TC because it still remains to be a long shot to directly affect the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 Seems like this system will have a large eye if it ever is able to get its act going. Quite a large center of circulation on latest radar imagery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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