ag3 Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 12z euro looks very rainy through hour 96 and it looks like the system is further west as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 I think we see alot of training t-storms, by Thursday. Especially west of NYC. Abundant instabiliy, lifting and mostiure: 12_NAM_075_KTTN_skewt_SB.gif Yeah, we have a very favorable combination of Precipitable Water and SB CAPE for extremely heavy downpours on Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 12z euro looks very rainy through hour 96 and it looks like the system is further west as well. Ahhh , 10 MB weaker than 0z , the Thunderstorm parade will come with the front with a Southerly flow ahead of it But the placement of the center looks about in the same spot . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYC Weather Lover Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 National Hurricane center just upped the chances of Invest 91L developing into a tropical cyclone within the next 48 hours. There's now an 80% chance for it developing within 48 hours and 5 days. It will be nothing short of interesting to see how this interacts with the cold front that will come our way on Thursday into Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Lol sure for you. The city gets Nada from 18-0z What about the western half of this forum? The Euro is ~2.5" of rain through 120 hours from the city west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 What about the western half of this forum? The Euro is ~2.5" of rain through 120 hours from the city west. Wednesday = complete washout on 12z GFS The discussion was about the 12z gfs not the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 The discussion was about the 12z gfs not the euro Yes and on the 12z GFS it's plenty wet west of the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Yes and on the 12z GFS it's plenty wet west of the city. on Wednesday? No..a couple hundredths at best until well west of the GSP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 on Wednesday? No..a couple hundredths at best until well west of the GSP Oh really? Becasue this is precip through 2AM Thursday. I guess the 1" in NE NJ doesn't count. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Oh really? Becasue this is precip through 2AM Thursday. I guess the 1" in NE NJ doesn't count. gfs_tprecip_nyc_23.png pretty sure thats west of the gsp... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 pretty sure thats west of the gsp... But still part of this area which is why I took offense. I live a good 15-20 miles west of the GSP yet I'm well within the confines of the greater Tri-State Area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 that map looks like it has some severe convective feedback Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 that map looks like it has some severe convective feedback That map matches up well with the forecasted scattered thunderstorms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 why are we using the models as though they can explicitly forecast convection well? they can't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 why are we using the models as though they can explicitly forecast convection well? they can't. everyone has an agenda Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Oh really? Becasue this is precip through 2AM Thursday. I guess the 1" in NE NJ doesn't count. gfs_tprecip_nyc_23.png "No..a couple hundredths at best until well west of the GSP " , Outside of the immediate shore of Ocean County , what did he say that was even a little wrong ? You have to relax , you jump on the guy even when his post matched ur map . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 who cares what the precip total map says... it's not going to be right anyway since it's convective Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 "No..a couple hundredths at best until well west of the GSP " , Outside of the immediate shore of Ocean County , what did he say that was even a little wrong ? You have to relax , you jump on the guy even when his post matched ur map . No comment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 why are we using the models as though they can explicitly forecast convection well? they can't. because the scattered thunderstorms are right over yanksfan's house Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 because the scattered thunderstorms are right over yanksfan's house Actually they aren't. The conversation is about sensible weather on Wednesday and whether or not it's a washout. I guess it's subjective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 why are we using the models as though they can explicitly forecast convection well? they can't. same reason you hype models that show heat ( which never shows up....) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Fairly impressive totals on the Euro ensemble mean. 1.50-3.00" with west of the city seeing more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 I don't even have any stakes in the game as I'll be out of town the entire period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Actually they aren't. The conversation is about sensible weather on Wednesday and whether or not it's a washout. I guess it's subjective. Some thunderstorms isn't a washout. If the inch of rain falls in an hour under the thunderstorm and the rest of the day is rain-free, that's not a washout. The washout hits Thursday night and Friday with the training along the stalled front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 No comment http://www.abebooks.com/Win-Friends-Influence-People/12594094936/bd?cm_mmc=gmc-_-gmc-_-PLA-_-v01 It will be the best 8 bucks you ever spent . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Actually they aren't. The conversation is about sensible weather on Wednesday and whether or not it's a washout. I guess it's subjective. For one small area it may be a wash out. For 90% of us it's not even close. But please lets move on this is getting ridiculous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 I always thought this back and forth stuff only applied in winter. We could use some rain as long as it's not excessive. Since things are usually convective anything more widespread is helpful. It should be mighty hot the next couple days, nothing earth shattering but still very uncomfortable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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