IsentropicLift Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Wednesday = complete washout on 12z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted June 30, 2014 Author Share Posted June 30, 2014 Wednesday = complete washout on 12z GFS what are the differences between the 12Z GFS and 12Z Nam for the entire period Wednesday through friday including the track of the tropical storm or is it a hurricane by then ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 what are the differences between the 12Z GFS and 12Z Nam for the entire period Wednesday through friday including the track of the tropical storm or is it a hurricane by then ? The position of the front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Wednesday = complete washout on 12z GFS Not a complete washout. Storms imitate before 18z though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Not a complete washout. Storms imitate before 18z though. Check out Friday on the GFS. Substantial rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Wednesday = complete washout on 12z GFS West of the city. Not even .2" city east during the day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 West of the city. Not even .2" city east during the day Most rain from the city east is early Friday morning as the front slowly crawls east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Looks to be a couple inches of rain from this for most (of course potential for more). Popup thunderstorms seem more in the works for Wednesday rather than a widespread washout. That does seem likely overnight Thursday into Friday though (given model data) Sent from my iPhone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 the convective temp has to be reached for convection to form. wednesday won't be a "washout" unless we get an mcs and that won't occur until after we've heated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 between 2 and 3 inches of rain not good not good at all for tourism up and down the east coast couldn't happen at the worst time for it to happen this summer empty beaches empty boardwalks = loses in the millions http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014063012/gfs_apcpn_us_18.png The world won't stop if the 4th of july weekend is a washout. It happens, no biggie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 The world won't stop if the 4th of july weekend is a washout. It happens, no biggie. Just looks like the 4th at this point...weekend looks dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Its starting to become unreadable deciphering wishcasting from the most likely scenerio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 As of right now the models have the rain pushing through the area on Friday unfortunately, but the weekend is dry at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Its starting to become unreadable deciphering wishcasting from the most likely scenerio hot with scattered afternoon tstorms wed. flooding risk is thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Its starting to become unreadable deciphering wishcasting from the most likely scenerio How? No one is wishcasting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Its starting to become unreadable deciphering wishcasting from the most likely scenerio This Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Maybe late day on the fourth is okay? Fireworks may still go on. Nobody in here is wishcasting. This has a legit shot to muck up the end of the week and the holiday, sorry if thats not what you want to hear, its the truth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cut Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 PRE? Someone educate me please. What is PRE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Well we have one person saying Wesnesday is a washout....which goes against everything else ive heard about tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 PRE? Someone educate me please. What is PRE? This would be where the tropical system throws moisture back inland along a stalled frontal boundary and causes heavy rain due to convergence and what not. The most classic situation like this occurred in the Philadelphia area with Hurricane Floydd when it came up the coast September 1999. As it was passing by it was a minimal 40 mph tropical storm passing about 40 miles east of Coastal New Jersey but it caused here in Delaware County PA about 10 miles southwest of Philadelphia serious flooding with 10-15 inches of rain... as the storm passed by it quickly cleared and high pressure built in fast causing 40 mph wind gusts for about 2 hours. Kevin from Media Delaware County PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 I thought it was only Thursday and Friday where a lot of rain is possible, I did hear scattered storms on Wednesday but no washout. The weekend still looks okay as of now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mgerb Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Just to add to this, PRE = Predecessor Rainfall Event There's a PPT that discusses it in more details here: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/hmt/seminar_files/PRE_NWS_Teletraining.ppt This would be where the tropical system throws moisture back inland along a stalled frontal boundary and causes heavy rain due to convergence and what not. The most classic situation like this occurred in the Philadelphia area with Hurricane Floydd when it came up the coast September 1999. As it was passing by it was a minimal 40 mph tropical storm passing about 40 miles east of Coastal New Jersey but it caused here in Delaware County PA about 10 miles southwest of Philadelphia serious flooding with 10-15 inches of rain... as the storm passed by it quickly cleared and high pressure built in fast causing 40 mph wind gusts for about 2 hours. Kevin from Media Delaware County PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cut Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Thanks for exp. guys. This is why come to places like this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 I thought it was only Thursday and Friday where a lot of rain is possible, I did hear scattered storms on Wednesday but no washout. The weekend still looks okay as of now. Wednesday is not a washout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Wednesday is not a washout. Nope, just a chance of storms in the afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Call Wednesday what you want. Activy fires before 09z and then persists the entire day with the heaviest falling between 18z and 00z. (Per 12z GFS timing) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Call Wednesday what you want. Activy fires before 09z and then persists the entire day with the heaviest falling between 18z and 00z. (Per 12z GFS timing) Lol sure for you. The city gets Nada from 18-0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Lol sure for you. The city gets Nada from 18-0z Rain for the city and Long Island comes late Thursday or Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Recon is in the storm now, and reported 35kt+ SFMR winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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