Weathergun Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 0z GFS phasing: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYC Weather Lover Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 As much as we all love tracking tropical storms and hurricanes, let's face it, IF this happens (which I doubt it will, but this is still a big IF at this point), this will be a serious blow to the coastal areas and beaches that rely on weekends like these to make money, as the time-frame of this passing by the northeast seems to be right on the 4th and into the weekend. I'm glad NOAA is sending their aircraft to investigate this. This is one storm I would definitely watch. Also, you do have to realize, when it's this far out in the game, the models normally pull out crazy scenarios, but they never usually verify. Of course Sandy was different, but I won't even bring that up right now. BUT, considering that this is the GFS and not the EURO, I still would not let my guard down. Prediction: This will become a tropical depression tomorrow or Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted June 30, 2014 Author Share Posted June 30, 2014 As much as we all love tracking tropical storms and hurricanes, let's face it, IF this happens (which I doubt it will, but this is still a big IF at this point), this will be a serious blow to the coastal areas and beaches that rely on weekends like these to make money, as the time-frame of this passing by the northeast seems to be right on the 4th and into the weekend. I'm glad NOAA is sending their aircraft to investigate this. This is one storm I would definitely watch. Also, you do have to realize, when it's this far out in the game, the models normally pull out crazy scenarios, but they never usually verify. Of course Sandy was different, but I won't even bring that up right now. BUT, considering that this is the GFS and not the EURO, I still would not let my guard down. Prediction: This will become a tropical depression tomorrow or Tuesday. agree 100 % - no matter which way you cut it if the GFS is correct most of the east coast from LI through the Carolinas is going have anything BUT a beach day on July 4th regardless of how much wind and heavy rain we have because the cloud cover will still be over the region with at least some precip http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014063006/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_18.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Several of the 00z ECMWF ensemble members are direct hits on Long Island and coastal NJ. Member #24 is basically an Irene redux. 06z Hurricane models continue to shift west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Think this will help kick this whole thing East , I do think parts of Long Island may see the seasons best Thunderstorms with this system . There should be plenty of Southerly, tropical flow feeding into the front as it swing through . The pattern will push the main energy East of the area , But this is where Nassau and Suffolk Counties get storms to hold together . Meant for this thread Attached Images Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 One developing scenario which I think has some legs is the idea that the frontal boundary will slow near the area and moisture will surge northward and pool along it. This could lead to a prolonged period of heavy rain near the frontal boundary in our area, regardless of how far southeast the system is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 One developing scenario which I think has some legs is the idea that the frontal boundary will slow near the area and moisture will surge northward and pool along it. This could lead to a prolonged period of heavy rain near the frontal boundary in our area, regardless of how far southeast the system is. This is a more likely scenerio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 One developing scenario which I think has some legs is the idea that the frontal boundary will slow near the area and moisture will surge northward and pool along it. This could lead to a prolonged period of heavy rain near the frontal boundary in our area, regardless of how far southeast the system is. Isnt this what Floyd did? Not suggesting it would be anything like Floyd, but kind of the same idea, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Isnt this what Floyd did? Not suggesting it would be anything like Floyd, but kind of the same idea, no? Floyd merged with a stalled frontal boundray after making landfall then the center tracked right along the coast, a bit west from where 91L is forecasted to track. The combination produced prolific rain amounts. In our area, the Passaic river basin went to major flood stage which is pretty impressive considering that it was preceeded by a dry period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Isnt this what Floyd did? Not suggesting it would be anything like Floyd, but kind of the same idea, no? There is normally a predecessor rainfall event (PRE) in advance of tropical systems that impact the Northeast because so many of them are associated in some way with fronts north of the Carolinas. I'd say it's pretty likely that a heavy rain area would be located near that frontal boundary due to moisture with the tropical system interacting with it. Also, I might have to eat crow on the "phantom storm" comments I had a few days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 12z Tropical models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 The 06z GEFS mean tracks the low only about 100 miles or so east of ACY and then just inside he benchmark. Closest approach would be Friday afternoon and evening. Steady rain makes it to the beaches. This was slightly east of 00z but also stronger. Seems like the models that keep the cyclone weaker get it closer to the coast and the stronger models have a quicker recurve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 This was issued this morning. Valid from Thursday ( 7/3/14-7/5/14 ) My forecast has rain from Wednesday - Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 The speed of that trough will determine the placement of max off the EC . I still think its a potential Thunderstorm fest , moreso if this can slow down . But I would watch the speed of that trough on the Ensembles today thru tomorrow . The Euro sometimes gets faster as we get closer. The Ridge axis argues for a fast run through the lakes IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 The SREF are a good example of the moisture surging northward ahead of the tropical low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 The SREF are a good example of the moisture surging northward ahead of the tropical low. I can't post the image here until it updates on e-wall but it paints a very wet scenario up and down the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Floyd wasa Cat 4 at one point. It also phased with more potent energy coming down from the Great Lakes: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 These PRE's often aren't picked up early on the models, so I would think it should become more pronounced as time goes on in the modeling. There could be quite a bit of rain near where the front ends up, maybe a few inches of rain. Unfortunately it looks to happen on the 4th of July. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted June 30, 2014 Author Share Posted June 30, 2014 These PRE's often aren't picked up early on the models, so I would think it should become more pronounced as time goes on in the modeling. There could be quite a bit of rain near where the front ends up, maybe a few inches of rain. Unfortunately it looks to happen on the 4th of July. and unfortunately the heaviest rain is right along the beaches - another high impact million dollar ++ disaster potential for the New Jersey shore because of lost revenue on a 4th of July - 3 day weekend -and a tropical storm/hurricane will keep many people away -- this whole scenario is not written in stone yet so I wouldn't cancel any shore plans yet - the whole key is timing of the cold front coming across and the eventual track and intensity of the Hurricane/Tropical storm and how they interact with one another. Also I believe this would be the first time in recorded history if this becomes a hurricane of it happening on July 4th so impacting the east coast at least this far north- maybe Uncle W can tell us ????- I am researching the records but can't find any July 4th east coast hurricane yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Plan on a wet period from Wednesday afternoon through Friday eveing. First with the frontal boundary and then as moisture surges northward along the front which may stall just to the west of the area. Several inches of rain are possible without any direct effects from the tropical cyclone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted June 30, 2014 Author Share Posted June 30, 2014 Plan on a wet period from Wednesday afternoon through Friday eveing. First with the frontal boundary and then as moisture surges northward along the front which may stall just to the west of the area. Several inches of rain are possible without any direct effects from the tropical cyclone. long way to go and that NAM is way out of its accurate range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Plan on a wet period from Wednesday afternoon through Friday eveing. First with the frontal boundary and then as moisture surges northward along the front which may stall just to the west of the area. Several inches of rain are possible without any direct effects from the tropical cyclone. would prefer this so dont have to worry about fire when i shoot my show on the 4th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 long way to go and that NAM is way out of its accurate range C'mon dude. This is a CLASSIC pre signal. The TC may stay a few hundred miles offshore but the combination of the stalled front and tropical moisture will cause a dumping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Yup... classic PRE signal. NAM looks like a classic PRE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 C'mon dude. This is a CLASSIC pre signal. The TC may stay a few hundred miles offshore but the combination of the stalled front and tropical moisture will cause a dumping. Agree. Although there could be an area of subsidence just to the west of the TC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 I think we see alot of training t-storms, by Thursday. Especially west of NYC. Abundant instabiliy, lifting and mostiure: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 To be honest, I think the RRE would be more interesting than the storm considering the overall size and intensity of the TC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted June 30, 2014 Author Share Posted June 30, 2014 C'mon dude. This is a CLASSIC pre signal. The TC may stay a few hundred miles offshore but the combination of the stalled front and tropical moisture will cause a dumping. cmon dude the WPC has the heaviest rain along the beaches and east - that NAM might be too far west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 and unfortunately the heaviest rain is right along the beaches - another high impact million dollar ++ disaster potential for the New Jersey shore because of lost revenue on a 4th of July - 3 day weekend -and a tropical storm/hurricane will keep many people away -- this whole scenario is not written in stone yet so I wouldn't cancel any shore plans yet - the whole key is timing of the cold front coming across and the eventual track and intensity of the Hurricane/Tropical storm and how they interact with one another. Also I believe this would be the first time in recorded history if this becomes a hurricane of it happening on July 4th so impacting the east coast at least this far north- maybe Uncle W can tell us ????- I am researching the records but can't find any July 4th east coast hurricane yet PREs usually favor inland areas, but I guess anyone's really in the game at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 cmon dude the WPC has the heaviest rain along the beaches and east - that NAM might be too far west The 12z GFS is coming in and it shows the pre nailing the east coast. 06z also did the same thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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