MJO812 Posted August 27, 2014 Share Posted August 27, 2014 All of the models are pretty boring going forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted August 27, 2014 Share Posted August 27, 2014 All of the models are pretty boring going forward. At least the pattern is favorable, it should be warm and tropical well into September. Something is bound to spin up eventually at climatological peak. September 2013 will be miles behind in my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 28, 2014 Share Posted August 28, 2014 Surfers paradise in Long Beach this morning. http://www.nysea.com/live-cam/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted August 28, 2014 Share Posted August 28, 2014 Surfers paradise in Long Beach this morning. http://www.nysea.com/live-cam/ Yes yes it was. 8 hours in the water. I will say despite the amazing conditions (the wind stayed north all day despite being forecast to go west which is bad) the swell was smaller then expected. Still this is not Hawaii! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 28, 2014 Share Posted August 28, 2014 Obviously fantasy land but the 18Z GFS develops a wave coming off Africa in about eight days right as the ridge is really flexing its muscles. Any system that makes it under that ridge should be in a favorable spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted August 28, 2014 Share Posted August 28, 2014 Obviously fantasy land but the 18Z GFS develops a wave coming off Africa in about eight days right as the ridge is really flexing its muscles. Any system that makes it under that ridge should be in a favorable spot. The US is going to be a perfect target zone through probably the first half of September if anything develops. The question is will we see something noteworthy actually develop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 28, 2014 Share Posted August 28, 2014 Yes yes it was. 8 hours in the water. I will say despite the amazing conditions (the wind stayed north all day despite being forecast to go west which is bad) the swell was smaller then expected. Still this is not Hawaii! I guess it was Californias turn to hit the summer surf jackpot this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted August 29, 2014 Share Posted August 29, 2014 I guess it was Californias turn to hit the summer surf jackpot this year. It's hard to get those kind of perfect barreling swells here. Oftentimes it gets too choppy. Arthur had some pretty good ones for awhile. Hurricane Karen delivered some good ones for the Quicksilver 2011 tourney here in Long Beach as well (perfect timing). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 2, 2014 Share Posted September 2, 2014 As we approach the statistical peak of Hurricane Season the 12z GFS develops not one, but two TC within the next seven days as they emerge off the African coast. Even though the fast development greatly favors fish, the GFS keeps both systems in a favorable upper air enviornment while staying south of 20N. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 2, 2014 Share Posted September 2, 2014 Looks like another dud of a tropical year as we approach the historical height of the season (around 9/10 with a second smaller peak in early Oct) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 2, 2014 Share Posted September 2, 2014 Looks like another dud of a tropical year as we approach the historical height of the season (around 9/10 with a second smaller peak in early Oct) Curios as to why you think it's such a dud? We've already had a landfalling CAT 2 Hurricane in NC, a close fish with Bertha, and MX landfalling TS with Dolly and September is statistically the most active month. Sure, it may not be a sexy season in terms of intense storms and high end US threats but we've had plenty of seasons more boring than this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted September 2, 2014 Share Posted September 2, 2014 Looks like another dud of a tropical year as we approach the historical height of the season (around 9/10 with a second smaller peak in early Oct) Keep it that way....had my fill for awhile. (Sandy) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 2, 2014 Share Posted September 2, 2014 Looks like another dud of a tropical year as we approach the historical height of the season (around 9/10 with a second smaller peak in early Oct) Still early Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 3, 2014 Share Posted September 3, 2014 Curios as to why you think it's such a dud? We've already had a landfalling CAT 2 Hurricane in NC, a close fish with Bertha, and MX landfalling TS with Dolly and September is statistically the most active month. Sure, it may not be a sexy season in terms of intense storms and high end US threats but we've had plenty of seasons more boring than this one. Cape Verde storms have been non-existent this year and the last several...that's about half the storms, so our only action is home brew. Nothing in the gulf either (relatively speaking) which is amazing. With that said, waters are not churned up and something could really go to town given the right conditions, especially in the gulf. But surprised it's been quiet given the lack of a El Nino so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 3, 2014 Share Posted September 3, 2014 Cape Verde storms have been non-existent this year and the last several...that's about half the storms, so our only action is home brew. Nothing in the gulf either (relatively speaking) which is amazing. With that said, waters are not churned up and something could really go to town given the right conditions, especially in the gulf. But surprised it's been quiet given the lack of a El Nino so far. The ensembles have been hinting at lower pressures in the 7-14 day range in the southern Gulf now for several days. With the deep trough building into the southern plains and a southeast ridge the pattern will favor anything that forms getting tugged northward towards the US Gulf Coast where as you mentioned the waters are primed. Two of the 00z GEFS members had major landfalling hurricanes on the Gulf coast in about two weeks. While this is pure fantasy, we weren't eveing seeing this type of porn in the models up until a few days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted September 4, 2014 Author Share Posted September 4, 2014 Have to keep an eye off the southeast coast into next week for possible tropical development Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 4, 2014 Share Posted September 4, 2014 JB mentioned this ^ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 4, 2014 Share Posted September 4, 2014 JB mentioned this ^ It's comforting knowing that he has the GGEM in his corner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 4, 2014 Share Posted September 4, 2014 The DGEX is locked and loaded as well, now all we need is for the NAVGEM to get on board and we'll have the weenie trifecta. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted September 4, 2014 Share Posted September 4, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 5, 2014 Share Posted September 5, 2014 JB mentioned this ^ shocker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted September 19, 2014 Author Share Posted September 19, 2014 Interesting read explaining why another storm could cause much greater damage then Sandy http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/09/18/sandy-hurricane-damage-co_n_5842958.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 19, 2014 Share Posted September 19, 2014 Interesting read explaining why another storm could cause much greater damage then Sandy http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/09/18/sandy-hurricane-damage-co_n_5842958.html A modern day 38' would probably do more damage than Sandy did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted September 19, 2014 Share Posted September 19, 2014 A modern day 38' would probably do more damage than Sandy did. It it depends on what you mean by more damage. More damage overall as in total losses or more severe damage in a given location. Overall sandy wins hands down as the right front quadrant went right over the NYC met. Locally 38 was far more damaging as it was a much more intense storm on it's right side. However it was much weaker on it's left side due to rapid movement. Not to mention the left side of a storm on that trajectory is always going tone less damaging as winds are offshore on that side of the storm reducing surge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 19, 2014 Share Posted September 19, 2014 It it depends on what you mean by more damage. More damage overall as in total losses or more severe damage in a given location. Overall sandy wins hands down as the right front quadrant went right over the NYC met. Locally 38 was far more damaging as it was a much more intense storm on it's right side. However it was much weaker on it's left side due to rapid movement. Not to mention the left side of a storm on that trajectory is always going tone less damaging as winds are offshore on that side of the storm reducing surge. I guess it's all relative. 38' today would likely do more damage locally than what Sandy did to the hardest hit areas. Sandy obviously hit a much larger total area. 38' was also more intact. Down near Cape May where the center of Sandy actually came on shore, the winds were much less severe than 150 miles to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted September 19, 2014 Share Posted September 19, 2014 I guess it's all relative. 38' today would likely do more damage locally than what Sandy did to the hardest hit areas. Sandy obviously hit a much larger total area. 38' was also more intact. Down near Cape May where the center of Sandy actually came on shore, the winds were much less severe than 150 miles to the north. Did you read the article? It's about 1821. I don't and I don't think anyone really knows enough about that storm to really make real estimates. Back to 1938 damage was only severe east of the center so east of fire island inlet. Long beach and the rockaways were already fairly well developed and faired far better then they did during sandy. Yes the hamptons are far more developed now then back in 38 so that's a consideration. But the Land out there tends to have a little more elevation that would limit damage compared to areas further west. Another thing to consider is that the vast majority of wealth out there is contained in wealthy summer homes so the human suffering would be less then sandy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 19, 2014 Share Posted September 19, 2014 Did you read the article? It's about 1821. I don't and I don't think anyone really knows enough about that storm to really make real estimates. Back to 1938 damage was only severe east of the center so east of fire island inlet. Long beach and the rockaways were already fairly well developed and faired far better then they did during sandy. Yes the hamptons are far more developed now then back in 38 so that's a consideration. But the Land out there tends to have a little more elevation that would limit damage compared to areas further west. Another thing to consider is that the vast majority of wealth out there is contained in wealthy summer homes so the human suffering would be less then sandy. 38' did a lot of damage to New England, you can't just consider Long Island. Over 100 people died from surge in Rhode Island alone. During 38' Wildwood was under 3' of water and was on the west side. The boardwalk was also mostly destroyed in AC. Neither of those things happened during Sandy when they were far closer to the center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted September 19, 2014 Share Posted September 19, 2014 I guess it's all relative. 38' today would likely do more damage locally than what Sandy did to the hardest hit areas. Sandy obviously hit a much larger total area. 38' was also more intact. Down near Cape May where the center of Sandy actually came on shore, the winds were much less severe than 150 miles to the north. PWS peaked with a wind gust of 74 MPH, just barely hurricane force. However, the highest gust was 89 mph in Surf City, Ocean County. Sandy was mostly a catastrophic storm surge event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted September 19, 2014 Share Posted September 19, 2014 38' did a lot of damage to New England, you can't just consider Long Island. Over 100 people died from surge in Rhode Island alone. During 38' Wildwood was under 3' of water and was on the west side. The boardwalk was also mostly destroyed in AC. Neither of those things happened during Sandy when they were far closer to the center. The boardwalk was disroyed during sandy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted September 19, 2014 Share Posted September 19, 2014 38' did a lot of damage to New England, you can't just consider Long Island. Over 100 people died from surge in Rhode Island alone. During 38' Wildwood was under 3' of water and was on the west side. The boardwalk was also mostly destroyed in AC. Neither of those things happened during Sandy when they were far closer to the center. 38 actually killed more then 500 in RI. The difference is most of Long Island experienced rapid growth in the 40s-70s with populations increasing 10x The same isn't true for coastal NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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