MJO812 Posted August 22, 2014 Share Posted August 22, 2014 The NEUS and New England can't turn their backs on this one as there could be a surprise in store if this gets blocked from turning towards the east Any one from the gulf to the east coast and the fishes are not out of it just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 22, 2014 Share Posted August 22, 2014 Jim cantore thinks a sandy hook type is possible along with a florida hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted August 22, 2014 Share Posted August 22, 2014 Jim cantore thinks a sandy hook type is possible along with a florida hit. Going to go from strongly negative NAO to neutral which often indicates coastal storm though I'm not sure about this one. Oddly enough the Euro is much further west and the gfs recurves this quickly just like it showed during Sandy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 23, 2014 Share Posted August 23, 2014 0z cane models went more west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted August 23, 2014 Author Share Posted August 23, 2014 Jim cantore thinks a sandy hook type is possible along with a florida hit. a Sandy scenario in late August during a major holiday weekend would have a much larger impact anywhere along the east coast for obvious reasons - the 6Z GFS FWIW (probably nothing) takes the storm up through FLA and right up along the coast to our area http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014082306/gfs_mslp_pcpn_us.html BTW here is the lineup of names for this season and the next several http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 23, 2014 Share Posted August 23, 2014 12z Hurricane models. All over the place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted August 23, 2014 Author Share Posted August 23, 2014 have to be concerned about the strongly negative NAO pattern we are in right now - that is the reason some folks are worried this will be directed into the east coast as it gains lattitude http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao_index.html add to this an approaching trough as the hurricane is making its way north - where have we seen this entire scenario before ? 12z Hurricane models. All over the place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted August 23, 2014 Share Posted August 23, 2014 i'll be interested when the best model shows something other than a complete miss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted August 23, 2014 Share Posted August 23, 2014 i'll be interested when the best model shows something other than a complete miss Im right with you. The ECMWF has been stellar with tropical systems and if its a complete miss right now they're is no reason to hype this up. IF it does start showing landfall near our area as something more than a tropical storm than it should peak interest. Until then its just another tropical cyclone in the atlantic..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted August 23, 2014 Share Posted August 23, 2014 UKMET is/was farthest west with this for Wed/Thurs. Trend for last 4 days has been eastward, from a hit in GOM @ LA. and then up north (but way west of Applachians) to way OTS even before reaching Cape Hatteras. Northern FL. has best chances for anything I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted August 23, 2014 Share Posted August 23, 2014 It's unlkely to observe a Sandy-esque scenario this early in the year. 0z Euro was close to a Carolinas landfall, the cold front trended north/weaker. It will be challenging for this to impact the East Coast directly. Decent chance of remnants or left hook into the Carolinas. A few storms with the left hook, backbuilding North Atlantic ridge scenario. Hurricane Doria (1967) San Ciriaco Hurricane (1899) Hurricane Connie (1955) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted August 23, 2014 Author Share Posted August 23, 2014 Tropical Depression 4 has formed in the Atlantic and Euro Ensembles are further west http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/233630.shtml?tswind120#contents Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted August 24, 2014 Share Posted August 24, 2014 Tropical Depression 4 has formed in the Atlantic and Euro Ensembles are further west http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/233630.shtml?tswind120#contents Cristobal will be a fish, models are increasingly favoring a N then NE track. Looks pretty cut and dry. Some higher surf for a couple of days and that's it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted August 24, 2014 Author Share Posted August 24, 2014 Tropical Depression 4 upgraded to Tropical Storm Cristobal http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 24, 2014 Share Posted August 24, 2014 Cristobal will be a fish, models are increasingly favoring a N then NE track. Looks pretty cut and dry. Some higher surf for a couple of days and that's it. I thought there was supposed to be a ridge building into the east. I guess not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted August 24, 2014 Share Posted August 24, 2014 I thought there was supposed to be a ridge building into the east. I guess not. The ridge building over the East is keeping it away. There's no high latitude blocking this week either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted August 24, 2014 Author Share Posted August 24, 2014 The ridge building over the East is keeping it away. There's no high latitude blocking this week either. the NAO is currently negative http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao_index.html the NAO forecast is for it to weaken then gain strength the last few days of August http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted August 24, 2014 Share Posted August 24, 2014 the NAO is currently negative http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao_index.html the NAO forecast is for it to weaken then gain strength the last few days of August http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif There's no blocking when this storm is going out: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted August 24, 2014 Share Posted August 24, 2014 a hurricane hit NYC on this date in 1893... http://www.rms.com/blog/2013/08/22/1893-ny-hurricane/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted August 24, 2014 Share Posted August 24, 2014 The 500mb pattern that was forecasted a couple days ago for Cristobal looks to finally set in place for the next system, 97L. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted August 24, 2014 Author Share Posted August 24, 2014 anybody in Bermuda or plan on going there this week ? Cristobal is also going there http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 24, 2014 Share Posted August 24, 2014 anybody in Bermuda or plan on going there this week ? Cristobal is also going there http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ i know some people that left on a cruise to Bermuda today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted August 24, 2014 Author Share Posted August 24, 2014 i know some people that left on a cruise to Bermuda today their boat might be rockin and a rollin in a few days - to early to say for sure though but Bermuda probably will be on the eastern side of the storm which is usually the more intense side http://www.weather.bm/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 25, 2014 Share Posted August 25, 2014 Jim cantore thinks a sandy hook type is possible along with a florida hit. what a horrible call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted August 25, 2014 Share Posted August 25, 2014 what a horrible call. Why is it still drifting around, should be moving north now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 25, 2014 Share Posted August 25, 2014 Why is it still drifting around, should be moving north now. 0z Euro doesn't have a pronounced north movement until later tonight and especially tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Imperator Posted August 25, 2014 Share Posted August 25, 2014 Why is it still drifting around, should be moving north now. It helps to read a forecast discussion every so often to understand why, rather than speculate: Tropical Storm CRISTOBAL Forecast Discussion WTNT44 KNHC 251455TCDAT4TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 8NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL0420141100 AM EDT MON AUG 25 2014Cristobal remains a sheared tropical cyclone with the low-levelcenter fully exposed on the north side of the deep convective cloudmass. Earlier reconnaissance data indicated maximum 850 mbflight-level winds of 61 kt in the southeast quadrant where SFMRwinds of near 50 kt were observed. Therefore, the initial intensityhas been increased to 50 kt. A NOAA aircraft reported a centralpressure of 996 mb, but the dropsonde also reported a 33-kt surfacewind. As a result, the central pressure is estimated to be 993 mb.Aircraft fixes indicate that Cristobal is moving erraticallynorth-northeastward or 015/02 kt. Strong northerly shear has beenimpeding the forward motion of Cristobal for the past several hoursby keeping the deep convection displaced to the south of the center,and this is expected to continue through today. On Tuesday, however,a deep trough just of the U.S. east coast is forecast to captureCristobal and gradually lift out the cyclone to the northeast whilethe Bermuda-Azores ridge builds westward to the south of the system.The NHC model guidance is in very good agreement on this developingscenario with only minor differences in forward speed. The officialtrack forecast is similar to the previous advisory track, and liesclose to a blend of the GFS and ECMWF solutions.The GFS-based SHIPS model indicates northerly shear of 23 kt hasbeen affecting Cristobal. The shear is forecast to gradually subsideto around 10 kt during the next 12-24 hours, during which time someslight strengthening could occur. However, by 48-72 hours, the shearis forecast to decrease more significantly, allowing Cristobal tostrengthen further, becoming a hurricane as the cyclone passes tothe west and north of Bermuda on Wednesday and Thursday. On Days 4and 5, Cristobal will be passing over much cooler waters andencountering strong southwesterly wind shear as the cyclone becomesembedded in the mid-latitude westerlies, which will result inextratropical transition by 120 hours.Owing to the slow motion of Cristobal, heavy rainfall and possibleflooding will remain a threat for the southeastern Bahamas and theTurks and Caicos through Tuesday.FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDSINIT 25/1500Z 24.6N 72.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 26/0000Z 26.0N 72.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 26/1200Z 27.8N 71.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 27/0000Z 30.0N 70.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 27/1200Z 32.2N 69.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 28/1200Z 36.5N 63.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 29/1200Z 42.7N 50.1W 65 KT 75 MPH120H 30/1200Z 49.5N 39.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP$$Forecaster Stewart Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 26, 2014 Share Posted August 26, 2014 GFS and GGEM has 97L hitting the coast. GFS shows it hitting Florida while the GGEM has it hitting NC/SC and then possibly moving up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted August 27, 2014 Share Posted August 27, 2014 Christobal looks set to send another nice shot swell to the area beaches. In conjunction with the hot sunny weather tomorrow its going to be a busy rescue day for me at Jones Beach tomorrow!!! Although the hurricane season has been fairly crappy overall its been pure luck for East coast surfers as each storm has delivered great waves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted August 27, 2014 Share Posted August 27, 2014 I might head down to beach tomorrow to check out the waves and enjoy it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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