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Hurricane/Tropical Season 2014


NEG NAO

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Just got back from Moses and the surf, as I expected wasn't impressive at all. Wind is

No worse than it was over the weekend. All in all, other than the east end rain nothing impressive at all considering a weakening Cat 1 is less than 175 miles to our SE.

Looks like Montauk will take total rainfall win but I don't see any area with more than 2-2.5" of rain in the last 12 hours based on radar amounts.

Sent from my iPhone

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How about 30-50mph gusts tomorrow morning in heavy rain squalls. Beach erosion, coastal flooding and maybe a scrape by the western half of the core.

Had a 5 mph wind and .25 qpf. So all in all pretty spot on.

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How about 30-50mph gusts tomorrow morning in heavy rain squalls. Beach erosion, coastal flooding and maybe a scrape by the western half of the core.

Luckily for us the water never came up past the beaches and we had maybe a half inch of rain. We had winds for a time that probably gusted 30-35 mph. All in all, pretty wimpy.

The Euro ensembles had an obx to cc track at 156 hours

Stellar

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The RGEM wasn't bad with predicting the area of rain although it's track may have been too far west

The rgem had way too much rain back here. We had a half inch or so when it had the main core of precip back into NJ for a time. The HWRF was also way too far west. Arthur went well SE of Nantucket when for a time it had it 75 miles south of the Hamptons.

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I'm hard pressed to remember another season where the GFS wasn't routinly developing fantasy systems in the long range. Was un upgrade done to reduce this from happening or are conditions for development really that bad? There seems be a pocket of weaker shear currently running from about Puerto Rico to the northern Gulf.

 

wg8shr.GIF

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I'm hard pressed to remember another season where the GFS wasn't routinly developing fantasy systems in the long range. Was un upgrade done to reduce this from happening or are conditions for development really that bad? There seems be a pocket of weaker shear currently running from about Puerto Rico to the northern Gulf.

 

wg8shr.GIF

It's the dreaded El Nino rearing its ugly head. Shear city, folks. Don't despair though. I got a hunch that come winter, we'll be praising El Nino! :mapsnow:

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It's the dreaded El Nino rearing its ugly head. Shear city, folks. Don't despair though. I got a hunch that come winter, we'll be praising El Nino! :mapsnow:

The El Nino is pretty much nonexistent. There's almost as much chance now it devolves into a neutral SST pattern than any kind of a Nino. I wouldn't hang your hat on the El Nino being any help next winter. Of course that's bad news for the Southwest.

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000
ABNT20 KNHC 211507
TWOAT

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1110 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special outlook issued to update discussion of system in the
central tropical Atlantic.

Updated: Shower activity associated with a small area of low
pressure located about midway between the Cape Verde Islands and the
Lesser Antilles has increased a little during the past few hours.
Although this activity remains limited, it continues to show signs
of organization. Satellite data also indicate that a closed
circulation could be forming and that the system is producing a
small area of winds near tropical storm force. A tropical depression
could develop during the next couple of days while the system moves
westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph. After that time
however, environmental conditions are expected to become less
conducive for development. Interests in the Lesser Antilles should
monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

 

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