rcad1 Posted June 29, 2014 Share Posted June 29, 2014 Nhc says the system is becoming better organized and a td should form later today or tomorrow. They rescheduled the recon flight that was scheduled for today. It's now scheduled for tomorrow morning if necessary!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 29, 2014 Share Posted June 29, 2014 Quite a few of the individual members are far enough west to bring rain to the coast. Hoping for an Irene esque track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted June 29, 2014 Share Posted June 29, 2014 wagons east…nothing to see here…going to be a beautiful weekend….enjoy the heat the next 3 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted June 29, 2014 Share Posted June 29, 2014 Euro is slightly west of the 0z run. It looks like a miss for the area but if the trough slows down, then its another story. FWIW, it's a good bit west of the 0z run. Doesn't mean much because of how far out we are right now though, and run to run fluctuations can be expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 29, 2014 Share Posted June 29, 2014 wagons east…nothing to see here…going to be a beautiful weekend….enjoy the heat the next 3 daysNow you know it's going to be a total washout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 29, 2014 Share Posted June 29, 2014 FWIW, it's a good bit west of the 0z run. Doesn't mean much because of how far out we are right now though, and run to run fluctuations can be expected.The track is very uncertain right now. Large spread the next 72 hours. After that it will come down to the amplitude and timing of the trough. If it slows down it could suck the system due north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted June 29, 2014 Share Posted June 29, 2014 wagons east…nothing to see here…going to be a beautiful weekend….enjoy the heat the next 3 days WRONG. This thing is coming up the coast and will drop heavy rains on us. You can book it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 29, 2014 Share Posted June 29, 2014 My guess is this gives us 2-4" of rain and at least one day next weekend is a total washout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 29, 2014 Share Posted June 29, 2014 WRONG. This thing is coming up the coast and will drop heavy rains on us. You can book it. Better start clicking those heels Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted June 29, 2014 Author Share Posted June 29, 2014 My guess is this gives us 2-4" of rain and at least one day next weekend is a total washout. there is a first for everything in weather and a July 4th weekend hurricane close to the east coast would be one - there is talk by certain unnamed Mets that the potential is there for this to develop into a minimal Cat 1 Hurricane as it moves north - hopefully the track will be far enough off the coast to avoid major problems - I would put the risk of anything more then rough surf - some beaches closed as minimal right now BUT the impact regardless still has a better chance of being high for anyone on the beach or trying to navigate the coastal waters ...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted June 29, 2014 Author Share Posted June 29, 2014 18Z GFS http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014062918/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eus_23.png July 4th is looking wetter and wetter http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=kewr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 29, 2014 Share Posted June 29, 2014 18Z GFS http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014062918/gfs_z850_vort_eus_24.png July 4th is looking wetter and wetter http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=kewr Nothing beyond 9 or 10 am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted June 29, 2014 Author Share Posted June 29, 2014 Nothing beyond 9 or 10 am the point I was making is the 12Z GFS cut off the precip at 12Z Friday and now the 18Z cuts it off at 15Z Friday with lingering cloud cover till the evening hours the trend has been to extend the precip - also the Euro now has some support from the GFS for this storm - there are going to be problems for beach goers and boaters July 4th weekend in the mid atlantic if this verifies and especially if it becomes stronger and moves further west its a 997 now on this GFS panel - also have to watch the pressure gradient and wind between the storm and that HP coming in - can't be too windy for fireworks my town is scheduled to have their fireworks display on the the Arthur Kill waterway Thursday - that doesn't look promising and the reschedule date is July 5th and if its too windy that doesn't look promising either http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014062918/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eus_23.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 29, 2014 Share Posted June 29, 2014 the point I was making is the 12Z GFS cut off the precip at 12Z Friday and now the 18Z cuts it off at 15Z Friday with lingering cloud cover till the evening hours the trend has been to extend the precip - also the Euro now has some support from the GFS for this storm - there are going to be problems for beach goers and boaters July 4th weekend in the mid atlantic if this verifies and especially if it becomes stronger and moves further west its a 997 now on this GFS panel - also have to watch the pressure gradient and wind between the storm and that HP coming in - can't be too windy for fireworks http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014062918/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eus_23.png At 00z on July 5th (Evening of July 4th) the tropical low is centered just NE of OBX with rain as far north as Philly and Sandy Hook. It won't take much more to bring measurable precip into NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 29, 2014 Share Posted June 29, 2014 FWIW the 18z GEFS mean tracks the low from about 150 miles east of ACY to just inside the benchmark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 29, 2014 Share Posted June 29, 2014 I think the last fireworks cancellation was 81 or 82 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 29, 2014 Share Posted June 29, 2014 I'll actually be down in northeast VA from the 2nd-9th so I would think I'll be in a greater impact zone than what happens up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted June 29, 2014 Author Share Posted June 29, 2014 I have a question when and if this storm is officially named are we going to keep the discussion here or do you guys want to create individual storm threads this season - then when the storms pass discuss potential storms in here again ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYC Weather Lover Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 I have a question when and if this storm is officially named are we going to keep the discussion here or do you guys want to create individual storm threads this season - then when the storms pass discuss potential storms in here again ? My suggestion would be to create new threads for every storm, but that's just me. Hopefully a moderator will chime in soon so we can get their opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted June 30, 2014 Author Share Posted June 30, 2014 My suggestion would be to create new threads for every storm, but that's just me. Hopefully a moderator will chime in soon so we can get their opinion. I agree with that just like we do in the winter individual storm threads - then bring the general tropical discussion back in here after the storm *** Also here is the 18Z GFS at Toms River NJ - not exactly a beach weekend very wet 4th and also Saturday with heavy rainfall amounts*** http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KMJX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sickman Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 I have a question when and if this storm is officially named are we going to keep the discussion here or do you guys want to create individual storm threads this season - then when the storms pass discuss potential storms in here again ? We'll keep it in here. If a storm becomes a potential threat to our area, we'll give it it's own thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Way too many moving parts with this one to make any guarantees at this juncture. The vorticity in the Southeast States and movement of the northern stream trough over the Great Lakes/OV are both wild cards -- as is the initial westward drift of the system. Certainly interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 WRONG. This thing is coming up the coast and will drop heavy rains on us. You can book it. These type of posts (and the one quoted in it) are so terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 These type of posts (and the one quoted in it) are so terrible.The one before it was just a troll being a troll. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 The DGEX looks delicious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 The DGEX looks delicious. Can you please post it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Can you please post it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Early 0z runs are little further west. But the consensus is still too far east for significant impacts here: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Track error in this time frame on models is significant. I'm not leaning in any direction yet. There's not even a TD designation yet and the center may end up in a different spot from where the models have it....or it may not even develop at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Yikes: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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