jbenedet Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Direct impact wise yes it will be minute here Do not underestimate the beach impacts. I have been guarding at jones Beach for 16 years and a storm on this track will throw some serious swell into the area. As jm said it's not the largest storm so that's a limiting factor. As it starts to transition to extra trop it's wind field and thus fetch will increase allowing for more swell generation. These longer period swells have a ton of surging power which allows them to wash over beaches. I'm not talking wash overs of whole islands just beach fronts. Still too early for some of us here, particularly out on the east end of LI. As of 2pm NHC has Tropical Storm force wind probabilities up to 40% in eastern Suffolk. Additionally Arthur's current position is already north and west of the NHC's extrapolated position for this hr. Therefore I'd shift the swath even further west, raising eastern LI's chances up to 60%... http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/205451.shtml?tswind120?large#contents Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Starting to think this has a chance to go over Nantucket....or pass very close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Starting to get nasty down in Norfolk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Starting to get nasty down in Norfolk Like how? 25mph gusts? No rain on radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Like how? 25mph gusts? No rain on radar From what I can tell, it's clear with gusts to 10-20 mph. They should get tropical storm conditions later though Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 The major west biased RAP looks like this on its latest run at 14Z tomorrow AM...bottom line it'll end up more E and S of that, I think we'll have alot of angry people tomorrow about all these cancelled events as I had said earlier...the 18Z RGEM really backed off...we basically have the GFS with the armageddon rain scenario tomorrow and thats it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 This is going to end up a pretty big bust IMO...hopefully it's sunny by afternoon on the 4 th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 The major west biased RAP looks like this on its latest run at 14Z tomorrow AM...bottom line it'll end up more E and S of that, I think we'll have alot of angry people tomorrow about all these cancelled events as I had said earlier...the 18Z RGEM really backed off...we basically have the GFS with the armageddon rain scenario tomorrow and thats it. I've noticed with tropical storms like this.....there is of course the inner bands (which we definitely will not be any part of), and then an area that is kind of in a lull outside of that, and then the outer bands which are sometimes way out NW. I'm thinking its possible we get into that ? Given, it'd probably be between 1 and 2 inches though if we do get it, not 3-5 Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 From what I can tell, it's clear with gusts to 10-20 mph. They should get tropical storm conditions later though Sent from my iPhone Slate grey here and windy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 This is going to end up a pretty big bust IMO...hopefully it's sunny by afternoon on the 4 th I don't think the media did that bad a job, there was some misinformation but people took that little bit and ran with it, it was not necessary to go axing everything as has pretty much been done, this is definitely a new phenomenon with bad weather on July 4th and sort of goes in the theory we're becoming softer as the years go on, I recall plenty of bad weather July 4ths over the years where everything went on rain or shine...1992 is by far the most notable, it was basically a washout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 This is going to end up a pretty big bust IMO...hopefully it's sunny by afternoon on the 4 th I didn't know that the event is over. Busts call already in july lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 This will be moving at a pretty good clip tomorrow so the steadiest rains should be over by 2pm west of Suffolk and only some lingering scattered showers after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim Posted July 4, 2014 Share Posted July 4, 2014 We should see some serious waves along the coast Friday night and Saturday morning. Big enough for wash overs at most beaches. A good analog is earl. There could even be some minor erosion issues out east ...hope your wrong surf freak..my beach(pikes beach) in westhampton dunes has grown to a pretty wide beach..wouldn't want that ruined so early in the season.. high tide @ moriches inlet is 12:44am friday morning..that would be the cycle IF we do get the washover.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby Posted July 4, 2014 Share Posted July 4, 2014 Starting to get nasty down in Norfolk Norfolk VA? http://wavy.com/webcams/ Looks ok to me lol Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 4, 2014 Share Posted July 4, 2014 Norfolk VA? http://wavy.com/webcams/ Looks ok to me lol Sent from my iPhone It was overcast and windy with almost a chill in the air. Actually a nice breeze currently. Watching the Tides play vs Charlotte. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted July 4, 2014 Share Posted July 4, 2014 Cat 2 now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted July 4, 2014 Share Posted July 4, 2014 The radar and satellite are looking more impressive again-this might make a run at 110 mph before landfall near Morehead City. There's going to be lots of damage from there out across the Outer Banks in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted July 4, 2014 Share Posted July 4, 2014 The radar and satellite are looking more impressive again-this might make a run at 110 mph before landfall near Morehead City. There's going to be lots of damage from there out across the Outer Banks in the morning.The eye is also contracting somewhat which will perhaps keep it over water for a tiny bit longer, I'd love to see some video from Cape Hatteras. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smog strangler Posted July 4, 2014 Share Posted July 4, 2014 Do not deviate from a NHC cone these days. This is becoming more and more apparent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted July 4, 2014 Share Posted July 4, 2014 You can see the rain organizing west of the hurricane now over northern NC and VA, let's see how far west that gets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted July 4, 2014 Share Posted July 4, 2014 Nhc is slow..landfall was in Cape Lookout.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted July 4, 2014 Share Posted July 4, 2014 Landfall 11:15 pm. Shackleford Banks, NC 100 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted July 4, 2014 Share Posted July 4, 2014 I thought this was not going to make landfall.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 4, 2014 Share Posted July 4, 2014 The SPC WRF is an absolute deluge. Over 7" of rain for parts of the area. Keeps the center offshore but tons of convection on the NW and N side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted July 4, 2014 Share Posted July 4, 2014 We should see some amazing surf tomorrow and the biggest danger of rip currents will probably exist through Saturday. The most amazing thing is that this one early storm has already proven more exciting than all of last hurricane season, in an El Niño type season no less. Have to wonder if this is just a precursor to something bigger later this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted July 4, 2014 Share Posted July 4, 2014 Lol http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mpyle/spcprod/12/nmmwrf.pcp_animate_1h.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted July 4, 2014 Share Posted July 4, 2014 We should see some amazing surf tomorrow and the biggest danger of rip currents will probably exist through Saturday. The most amazing thing is that this one early storm has already proven more exciting than all of last hurricane season, in an El Niño type season no less. Have to wonder if this is just a precursor to something bigger later this season. Homegrown systems are more common in Niño years. This one formed off the Bahamas. I'll admit I was completely wrong when I dismissed this storm last week. The Euro caught this early just like Sandy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted July 4, 2014 Share Posted July 4, 2014 The shore areas are definitely going to see some effects. Not severe, but I think this is being underplayed. Some of the models have tropical storm force winds getting close too or brushing the coast. Gonna be fun to watch, and expecting some big waves at the least. I have a feeling that the northwestern side of this storm is going to expand and contain most of higher winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 4, 2014 Share Posted July 4, 2014 The shore areas are definitely going to see some effects. Not severe, but I think this is being underplayed. Some of the models have tropical storm force winds getting close too or brushing the coast. Gonna be fun to watch, and expecting some big waves at the least. I have a feeling that the northwestern side of this storm is going to expand and contain most of higher winds. Overnight and tomorrow are going to be interesting to see how far west the bands end up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted July 4, 2014 Share Posted July 4, 2014 Hurricane Arthur is way underhyped locally. The entire coast should be raked with rain, including NYC. Cape Cod might see a direct LF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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