Seth.P Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Very quickly if I may, as a resident in Brooklyn, NY, do I have to fear for any significant impacts from this hurricane, and is there the potential for power outages because of it? Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Very quickly if I may, as a resident in Brooklyn, NY, do I have to fear for any significant impacts from this hurricane, and is there the potential for power outages because of it? Thanks! There'll be 1-2" of rain, we won't have much impact beyond that. We're on the west side of the storm (unlike Irene or Sandy) and it will be well southeast of here. The biggest threat is erosion from high surf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 The Gulf Stream runs up the east side of FL, GA, and SC. The water temps don't really drop off until you're north of Cape Hatteras. Lol exactly. Once north of Hatteras it will likely weaken quickly unless it peels off to the NE which likely. I was referring to it holding strength if it swings west. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 12z GGEM scrapes the coast with Arthur. Heavy rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Hopefully, only the experienced surfers venture into the waters tomorrow with the rain keeping the other beach goers away. Saturday will be tricky with improving weather bringing the crowds down to the beach and rip current risk high with waves still potentially around 4-7 feet. So the lifeguards may have to limit access for swimmers with dangerous conditions lingering. Yeah unfortunately its a bad combination. Inexperienced swimmers flooding to the beaches combined with higher than normal waves and riptides means the lifeguards will have their hands full and we'll probably hear of several drownings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 I think Arthur will make it to a cat 2 before landfall. The eye looks like it's finally closed off and good convection is wrapping all the way around. There's also a decent possibility it really rakes the Outer Banks, particularly if it goes over Albemarle Sound at all. That'll be a very nasty surge and eyewall when it crosses over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 It's not going to dodge landfall at this point unless there's a dramatic NE shift so watch out eastern NC and the outer banks. I think it could become a category 2 as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Dry air keeps trying to fight off intensification though and disrupt the eyewall- that's always a problem with these storms that hug too close to the coast. That will definitely put a cap on how much this can take off. Right now I think 100-105mph cat 2 over or just west of Cape Hatteras. If this was further out at sea, this could easily be rampaging up towards Cat 3 right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/southeast_loop.php That`s an ugly look for OBX if they end up in it`s right front quadrant . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 It does appear the last hour that it may be finally taking a more pronounced NE turn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 It does appear the last hour that it may be finally taking a more pronounced NE turn It won't be enough to avoid landfall but those further inland will be happier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 It does appear the last hour that it may be finally taking a more pronounced NE turn Yes , it jogged NNE , Still concerned for the outer banks . The bad news is , its stay over the water for the next 12 plus hours prob gona see sustained winds over 100 plus in that area . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 It hasn't really gone NE yet. Still NNE, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Wow the radar is looking really impressive. So happy this is heading OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 12z HWRF, FWIW: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Wow the radar is looking really impressive. So happy this is heading OTS. It's still going to scrape us with the bands but nothing major. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 It's still going to scrape us with the bands but nothing major. If we get the outer fringes of the system that's fine. I'm just happy we're not dealing with the strongest winds. I worked during Irene and Sandy and would definitely prefer not to go through the ordeal a third time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 If we get the outer fringes of the system that's fine. I'm just happy we're not dealing with the strongest winds. I worked during Irene and Sandy and would definitely prefer not to go through the ordeal a third time. Even if it was much closer we are on the northwest side of the storm. Vulnerable low elevation south facing shores would have offshore winds and weaker winds for everyone would be the rule. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Radar is still showing this fighting dry air and a continuously interrupted, ragged eyewall. It's definitely firing up again on the east side, so let's see if it can wrap around to the west and close off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Radar is still showing this fighting dry air and a continuously interrupted, ragged eyewall. It's definitely firing up again on the east side, so let's see if it can wrap around to the west and close off.I personally vote for dry air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 We should see some serious waves along the coast Friday night and Saturday morning. Big enough for wash overs at most beaches. A good analog is earl. There could even be some minor erosion issues out east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 We should see some serious waves along the coast Friday night and Saturday morning. Big enough for wash overs at most beaches. A good analog is earl. There could even be some minor erosion issues out east One thing that might keep wave heights down is that this is a small-sized storm not able to move as much water as a bigger sized hurricane like Bill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 18z models have the hurricane passing just inside the benchmark on average. That might be close enough to douse us pretty well for a few hours at least from the city east, and increase the winds over eastern Suffolk. The Euro seems to have went west a bit at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 One thing that might keep wave heights down is that this is a small-sized storm not able to move as much water as a bigger sized hurricane like Bill. A voice of reason and sanity. Thanks J. Washovers are probably not likely except for maybe EXTREMELY low lying areas and at high tide. This should be a weakening storm with a trough eating into it. Even if it were to ride the outermost W side of the cone it should be nothing more than a mild to weak TS by the time it gets up here. Right now unless I'm in Cape Cod should be nothing more than breezy with intermittent showers/TS's. And some nice surf! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 A voice of reason and sanity. Thanks J. Washovers are probably not likely except for maybe EXTREMELY low lying areas and at high tide. This should be a weakening storm with a trough eating into it. Even if it were to ride the outermost W side of the cone it should be nothing more than a mild to weak TS by the time it gets up here. Right now unless I'm in Cape Cod should be nothing more than breezy with intermittent showers/TS's. And some nice surf! Sent from my iPhone This won't weaken very fast due to the fact that it will become extratropical and begin interaction with the upper level trough, making it transition into a strong extratropical low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Nhc still has it as a cat 1 at our latitude not supposed to weaken that quickly as jm said... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted July 3, 2014 Author Share Posted July 3, 2014 water vapor is beginning to show the moisture from Arthur becoming entrained into the front moving east http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/wv-animated.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 water vapor is beginning to show the moisture from Arthur becoming entrained into the front moving east http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/wv-animated.gif It also shows a heck of an eye trying to form in the last few frames. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 It also shows a heck of an eye trying to form in the last few frames. Actually the south side has fell apart and a tongue of dry air is flowing into the east side of it. Unless I'm looking at the wrong radar. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 A voice of reason and sanity. Thanks J. Washovers are probably not likely except for maybe EXTREMELY low lying areas and at high tide. This should be a weakening storm with a trough eating into it. Even if it were to ride the outermost W side of the cone it should be nothing more than a mild to weak TS by the time it gets up here. Right now unless I'm in Cape Cod should be nothing more than breezy with intermittent showers/TS's. And some nice surf! Sent from my iPhone Direct impact wise yes it will be minute here Do not underestimate the beach impacts. I have been guarding at jones Beach for 16 years and a storm on this track will throw some serious swell into the area. As jm said it's not the largest storm so that's a limiting factor. As it starts to transition to extra trop it's wind field and thus fetch will increase allowing for more swell generation. These longer period swells have a ton of surging power which allows them to wash over beaches. I'm not talking wash overs of whole islands just beach fronts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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