pazzo83 Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 If you guys are on Twitter, you need to follow this guy astro_reid (Reid Wiseman). He's an American on the ISS who posts the most amazing pictures all day long: Here is Arthur from 400km up: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cjr231 Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 The 4K NAM slams the area with the outer bands. No offense but you have told us all to toss the NAM the last few days when it was east of other guidance. Just saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Big shift west on the 09z SREF's after going east at 03z. Some concern growing for the outer banks and southeast VA. Impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 If you guys are on Twitter, you need to follow this guy astro_reid (Reid Wiseman). He's an American on the ISS who posts the most amazing pictures all day long: Here is Arthur from 400km up: Sick! I love anything space related. I wish we funded it like we do our wars. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Sorry if this is veering a bit off-topic, but it's in reference to earlier posts in this thread.....I don't think any of us (hopefully) are wishing for anyone to be hurt or lose their home or vehicle from a storm. However, I believe we are almost all here rooting for exciting weather. Exciting weather is always in the form of a storm. We are interested because we want to see a strong storm and the power of Mother Nature affect us. It does not mean, though, that anyone wishes harm upon another. If you are watching a sports game and root for one team to win, does it mean that you want that to happen so that you can see the other players cry and suffer ? Nope, not usually. Like sports, weather is a hobby for many of us. As for this storm, it won't be nearly as strong nor affect areas in even remotely the same or similar way as a system like Sandy did Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Is the front still on track with speed and timing? Wouldn't it slowing down allow Arthur to come a bit closer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Yes of course that is true. I'll never forget the feeling in the pit of my stomach when I saw Sandy switch over to a westerly track and knew it was on track to be at its worst during high tide. Luckily we likely won't see anything like that again in our lives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 How about 30-50mph gusts tomorrow morning in heavy rain squalls. Beach erosion, coastal flooding and maybe a scrape by the western half of the core. I highly doubt the wind is a big deal here and the rain will be run of the mill. The beach erosion and high surf is more likely. The core will be well southeast of where it can make a significant impact here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 I'll never forget the feeling in the pit of my stomach when I saw Sandy switch over to a westerly track and knew it was on track to be at its worst during high tide. Luckily we likely won't see anything like that again in our lives. I knew we were in trouble when I woke up early Monday morning and I saw the storm in the low 940's. Of course I had to go into work that day but was let out early. I will also never forget the bust calls in the afternoon lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 I'll never forget the feeling in the pit of my stomach when I saw Sandy switch over to a westerly track and knew it was on track to be at its worst during high tide. Luckily we likely won't see anything like that again in our lives. Let's hope so, but we could see similar if not greater storm surge flooding with less than a Sandy in the near future as sea levels rise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 I highly doubt the wind is a big deal here and the rain will be run of the mill. The beach erosion and high surf is more likely. The core will be well southeast of where it can make a significant impact here. Yes, that's if you go with the Euro. If the timing of the front is delayed, this will have more of an impact in our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Question in general, as I have limited knowledge of tropical storms. If this storm hits the 40/70 benchmark, like some of our good winter storms do, would this storm produce copious amounts of precipitation for the area? Knowing that tropical storms are warm core/as opposed to cold core storms (the interplay of physics I am unsure of), I was curious if the storm would behave in a similar fashion? Knowing there is a cold front that will sweep this storm away in the pending matter, however if all things were equal to a classic noreaster, I was interested in the dynamic. Thanks in advance and my apologizes if this is the wrong thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 I knew we were in trouble when I woke up early Monday morning and I saw the storm in the low 940's. Of course I had to go into work that day but was let out early. I will also never forget the bust calls in the afternoon lol. I laughed particularly hard at the bust calls, particularly when the center was still hundreds of miles away and winds were still offshore. We had flooding in spots here during the day but it was when the wind switched to SE as high tide roared ashore with the gustiest winds, that it basically became the Apocalypse outside. And the wind/rain was never expected to be the most severe impact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Yes, that's if you go with the Euro. Its ENSEMBLES the GFS the NAM , along with the NHC guidance . If the timing of the front is delayed, this will have more of an impact in our area. I fixed that for you . You`re right other than those , there`s really no consensus . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Arthur's looking better on radar but still looks ragged on the SW side. If the convection can fully wrap around and the eye can clear out, it could be bombs away. I'd say there's a fair likelihood this strikes as a Cat 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 You guys should not be making definite statements. Arthur looks great and will continue to intensive to my guess a CAT 2. I would not suggest to say that we are having a Irene redux, but would certainly suggest not to go into the water tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 12z RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 This will probably set the record for the best LB surf around the July 4th holiday as this scoots out near of just SE of the BM. We could see the waves approach 10 ft in Long Beach for a time with a flood of surfers pouring into town. The beaches are going to take a pounding, that's for sure. It's concerning that it's ramping up in strength and ticking west. Hurricane Bill was southeast of where this should track and was very damaging to the beaches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 I'll never forget the feeling in the pit of my stomach when I saw Sandy switch over to a westerly track and knew it was on track to be at its worst during high tide. Luckily we likely won't see anything like that again in our lives.I'll never forget looking at the devastation as we flew over the tri state area the next morning. My crews' hearts (myself included) literally shattered. Yes, let us hope Sandy does not ever rear her ugly head again, but with the extreme weather as of late.. I bristle with concern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Sick! I love anything space related. I wish we funded it like we do our wars. You and me both dude. I would have half our budget go to NASA if I ran things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 The beaches are going to take a pounding, that's for sure. It's concerning that it's ramping up in strength and ticking west. Hurricane Bill was southeast of where this should track and was very damaging to the beaches. Busy weekend also for the beaches. Not good at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 They should probably close the beaches tomorrow. Too dangerous for swimming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 The beaches are going to take a pounding, that's for sure. It's concerning that it's ramping up in strength and ticking west. Hurricane Bill was southeast of where this should track and was very damaging to the beaches.Bill's strength, size and angle of approach was conductive for large clean waves (good for surfing). The waves associated with Arthur will likely be much smaller and very choppy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 12z GFS landfall near Wilmington. Then scrapes the entire coast of NC with the eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Question in general, as I have limited knowledge of tropical storms. If this storm hits the 40/70 benchmark, like some of our good winter storms do, would this storm produce copious amounts of precipitation for the area? Knowing that tropical storms are warm core/as opposed to cold core storms (the interplay of physics I am unsure of), I was curious if the storm would behave in a similar fashion? Knowing there is a cold front that will sweep this storm away in the pending matter, however if all things were equal to a classic noreaster, I was interested in the dynamic. Thanks in advance and my apologizes if this is the wrong thread. The short answer is most likely. As this storm continues its march up the Eastern Seaboard it will begin to become post tropical in nature (losing its tropical characteristics). Arthur will begin to become embedded in within the front which will likewise absorb it's energy and precipitation. At our latitude, the transition is normally mid way if not almost completed. What this means for us is that the wind field expands significantly as does the coverage of precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Account for the fact that the NHC position is already 8 miles too far east... at201401_model_zoom.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 The eyewall is really trying to wrap around to the west now. I wonder if it can make it happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 The GFS still has this coming just west of the benchmark. Cape Cod should really monitor Arthur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 The GFS still has this coming just west of the benchmark. Cape Cod should really monitor Arthur. The place where the trough should start interacting with Arthur is important and could enhance rain over New England. As the storm goes extratropical that interaction will cause it to grow quite a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 12z RGEM This is likely a worst case but even so that rain is whats fallen through 12/1pm and likely mostly done ore almost done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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