IsentropicLift Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Some of the main forum people starting to get concerned. Great discussion ongoing there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 The Gulf Stream runs up the east side of FL, GA, and SC. The water temps don't really drop off until you're north of Cape Hatteras. He may have been referencing the temps north of that point...thats one factor that makes a hurricane up the coast unlikely before 8/20 or so...the water temps while never really above 80 north of VA are much closer to 80 in alot of spots in August and September than in early July, that can enable storms to hold up better as they go up the coast than in the late summer or early fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Dry air is often a problem with storms that parallel the east coast, and it was definitely an issue with Irene as well. It eroded pretty much the entire southern half of the storm away. As soon as the eye hit Coney Island, it was just about over here.Yeah I live on the shore in south brooklyn, right over bridge from breezy point, & as soon as the eye came it was sunny out. I'm ok with a miss now especially after sandy & July 4th weekend is one of if not the worst time for a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Some of the main forum people starting to get concerned. Great discussion ongoing there. A slight wobble will screw the outer banks, even 20 miles...I think their biggest concern though is wind damage if it does make it to a strong 2...the storm surge often lags behind which may prevent a Cat 2 or 3 surge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 A direct hit here would be no worse than Irene. There are a ton of unique circumstances that made Sandy what it was.Yes of course that is true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 8 am , Further east than the 2 am update Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 12z NAM has landfall in OBX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 8 am , Further east than the 2 am updateIt needs to turn now in order to stay on the forecasted track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 It needs to turn now in order to stay on the forecasted track. Its gona . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Its gona .Not per main forum mets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Not per main forum mets. Please take this argument up with the NHC which is further E @ 8 AM than it was @ 2 AM . The NAM ,GFS , EURO all saySE of the BM . I thought this was a miss on Mon , its posted . I stand by that . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 12z hurricane models look tightly clustered at the benchmark. with a slight leak to the west. One model takes the center west of Philly. The model you are referring to that takes it west of philly is not a model. Its an extrapolated referrence if the storm stayed on the current trajectory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Not per main forum mets. I just saw that. Should be an interesting model day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Please take this argument up with the NHC which is further E @ 8 AM than it was @ 2 AM . The NAM ,GFS , EURO all saySE of the BM . I thought this was a miss on Mon , its posted . I stand by that . Main show here are the thunderstorms tonight..other than that some showery rains tomorrow morning into mid day from Arthur..hopefully clearing in time for the 4th fireworks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Please take this argument up with the NHC which is further E @ 8 AM than it was @ 2 AM . The NAM ,GFS , EURO all saySE of the BM . I thought this was a miss on Mon , its posted . I stand by that . The further west track applies mainly to NC, not necessarily up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Please take this argument up with the NHC which is further E @ 8 AM than it was @ 2 AM . The NAM ,GFS , EURO all saySE of the BM . I thought this was a miss on Mon , its posted . I stand by that . You make it sound as if the NHC track is never wrong. Anyhow radar doesn't lie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 The further west track applies mainly to NC, not necessarily up the coast.Yes but they mentioned Maryland becoming at risk. Another shift west and we're in play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 The further west track applies mainly to NC, not necessarily up the coast. I agree , I always bought that this would get caught up in the front and get swept E in the end . This may cross OBX , but as it crawls N , I think the move is ENE not NE . Just an opinion . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 I agree , I always bought that this would get caught up in the front and get swept E in the end . This may cross OBX , but as it crawls N , I think the move is ENE not NE . Just an opinion . Cold front pushes through with westerlies over the mid Atlantic and Northeast..impossible for it to move north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted July 3, 2014 Author Share Posted July 3, 2014 Yes but they mentioned Maryland becoming at risk. Another shift west and we're in play. lets make it clear that if we are "in play" it will only be from rough surf and outer showery bands here - maybe some coastal flooding in spots - no wind issues at all directly from Arthur.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 lets make it clear that if we are "in play" it will only be from rough surf and outer showery bands here - maybe some coastal flooding in spots - no wind issues at all directly from Arthur....Why? 24 hours to go, anything can happen. These are very hard to predict. The front looks like it's stalling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 NAM now shows a pretty rainy day on Friday, even a 30 mile shift west would ruin most of the 4th. Fireworks should still be fine though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 NAM now shows a pretty rainy day on Friday, even a 30 mile shift west would ruin most of the 4th. Fireworks should still be fine though.Calling for a complete miss with a ton of time to go sounds pretty foolish to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 The 4K NAM slams the area with the outer bands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Calling for a complete miss with a ton of time to go sounds pretty foolish to me. A miss for you, I hope you mean eastern N.C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted July 3, 2014 Author Share Posted July 3, 2014 Why? 24 hours to go, anything can happen. These are very hard to predict. The front looks like it's stalling. ok what do you suspect could happen in the metro - details ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 A miss for you, I hope you mean eastern N.C.Riding it out near Norfolk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 ok what do you suspect could happen in the metro - details ?How about 30-50mph gusts tomorrow morning in heavy rain squalls. Beach erosion, coastal flooding and maybe a scrape by the western half of the core. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Riding it out near Norfolk. Any chance of a job transfer ? Hearing the Mid Atlantic forum would love to have you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Any chance of a job transfer ? Hearing the Mid Atlantic forum would love to have you I already post in just about every sub forum on this site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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