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Hurricane/Tropical Season 2014


NEG NAO

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If that's not an eye wall then I don't know what is. Clearly it's not the most textbook version because there's still dry air involved but once that mixes out then watch out.

Then you don't know what is. Not being rude/arrogant, but it's not hard to understand the reasoning behind this not being an eye.

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Then you don't know what is. Not being rude/arrogant, but it's not hard to understand the reasoning behind this not being an eye.

Well, it will be eventually, shear is the only factor that can prevent this from stacking up. All short-range models, HRRR etc show this happening.

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Main stream media is horrible these days. I don't get why they hype the hurricane. Unless they do this so people won't be confused, why do they say the rain Friday is from the hurricane? It's from the cold front.

miyjc0.jpg

I have many friends asking me about this hurricane coming. lol

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Main stream media is horrible these days. I don't get why they hype the hurricane. Unless they do this so people won't be confused, why do they say the rain Friday is from the hurricane? It's from the cold front.

miyjc0.jpg

Upton just made a Facebook post with a video trying to get the idea across that it's all frontal related and that the tropical will be offshore

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The globals tend to want to be west of the NHC models with recurving systems off the US for some reason, they usually start hooking by this point but the GFS has been slow to do so this far, the Euro although it has waffled around has generally been more east.

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The globals tend to want to be west of the NHC models with recurving systems off the US for some reason, they usually start hooking by this point but the GFS has been slow to do so this far, the Euro although it has waffled around has generally been more east.

The GEM western side is stronger , I like the look of the Euros shunt east as that trough comes flying through . 

Think there is enough push thru the zone that once to OBX its ENE not NE .

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12z Euro is a bit of a cave to the closer to the coast camp.

It now clips NYC with Arthur bands with the heaviest for Eastern LI and the Cape.

Around what time does the Euro actually show the rain affecting us?
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Around what time does the Euro actually show the rain affecting us?

 

12z Euro verbatim has on and off rain all day tomorrow with the front interaction (PRE).

And then rain with the actual Arthur for NYC from about 2pm Friday to about 8pm. For Eastern LI the rain on the euro lasts until about 2am Saturday.

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12z Euro verbatim has on and off rain all day tomorrow with the front interaction (PRE).

And then rain with the actual Arthur for NYC from about 2pm Friday to about 8pm. For Eastern LI the rain on the euro lasts until about 2am Saturday.

 

I think Friday needs to be watched a bit more. Euro definitely bumped west by a decent amount and with tropical or sub-tropical systems, you can't really pinpoint the track until inside of 24 hours.

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12z Euro verbatim has on and off rain all day tomorrow with the front interaction (PRE).

And then rain with the actual Arthur for NYC from about 2pm Friday to about 8pm. For Eastern LI the rain on the euro lasts until about 2am Saturday.

Wow what a bust of a holiday.

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Still not buying it, hurricane models are all well east and they're rarely that wrong 48 hours out, globals also severely overdo moisture on the WRN side of tropical systems beyond 24-36 hours, in this case the jet dynamics make me buy that from 12-18z there may be rain but beyond that I don't see anything west of ERN LI

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