IsentropicLift Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 Friday's rain forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 3 day total Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 Arthur is looking pretty good right now. NHC more bullish. If forky is right, models may go more west tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 Yeah, the system will need to speed up and the trough will need to slow down or deepen for Arthur to greatly affect the region. The euro is different from other models because it is slower to move Arthur north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 18z GFS looks faster/more NW down south than 12z, front is about the same. Somewhat confused, thought this run would slow down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted July 1, 2014 Author Share Posted July 1, 2014 18Z GFS shows tropical storm and or hurricane conditions east and southeast of the metro July 4th - going to be a complete washout July 4th the closer you are to the beaches. Some beaches may be closed and boaters will be given a warning to not navigate the coastal waters July 4th - so this is a high impact event because of the day of the year it is happening - also this is probably the first time in recorded history this has happened along the mid atlantic coast on july 4th IF THIS SCENARIO VERIFIES http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014070118/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_13.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 Looks like it might make 55kts next advisory based on recon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 It does have that look like it might really take off, which could cause some slight changes in the track though not much to really cause huge concern. The biggest concern is really for the Carolina coastline where they might be dealing with a stronger storm than forecast thus causing much more problems for them. A stronger storm will also elevate the surf and rip current risk even further, which is what we'll feel the most. Also hidden danger is that the weekend might look beautiful but the waters could be very dangerous and given it's the 4th of July weekend that's not a good combination. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 18Z GFS shows tropical storm and or hurricane conditions east and southeast of the metro July 4th - going to be a complete washout July 4th the closer you are to the beaches. Some beaches may be closed and boaters will be given a warning to not navigate the coastal waters July 4th - so this is a high impact event because of the day of the year it is happening - also this is probably the first time in recorded history this has happened along the mid atlantic coast on july 4th IF THIS SCENARIO VERIFIES http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014070118/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_13.png May 29-30 1908 had a minimal TS pass very close to Montauk point. It passed very near Cape Hatteras on May 29th, 1908. It then weakened further passing very close to Montauk Point and then inland over eastern New England as a minimal tropical storm. Although not a hit on July 4th it was still very early in the season. And at this point I think Arthur has little to no impact on the area save for MAYBE points east of Shirley area on the south shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 Seeing as I'm headed down to VA in the morning I'm a bit concerned. Seems as if the biggest west shift today has been while Arthur is south of VA beach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted July 1, 2014 Author Share Posted July 1, 2014 May 29-30 1908 had a minimal TS pass very close to Montauk point. It passed very near Cape Hatteras on May 29th, 1908. It then weakened further passing very close to Montauk Point and then inland over eastern New England as a minimal tropical storm. Although not a hit on July 4th it was still very early in the season. And at this point I think Arthur has little to no impact on the area save for MAYBE points east of Shirley area on the south shore. so little to no impact at the beaches and the waters south of LI and east of NJ meaning swimming will be allowed and no warnings for boaters ? is that what you are saying ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 If the center passes even as far east as what the Euro shows you're still going to see dangerous surf and rip currents. The intensity should be in the 970's at this latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 18z gfs is def a bit east of it 12z run…hopefully the euro is correct and this gets the boot….we need drier and east trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smog strangler Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 18z gfs is def a bit east of it 12z run…hopefully the euro is correct and this gets the boot….we need drier and east trend Only extreme eastern LI is even sniffing NHC cone of error and given how much they have progressed recently with this I would bet on the cone. Also, in true tropical spirit if there is any actual tropical structure at that juncture ……. only a few fish will blow around a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Only extreme eastern LI is even sniffing NHC cone of error and given how much they have progressed recently with this I would bet on the cone. Also, in true tropical spirit if there is any actual tropical structure at that juncture ……. only a few fish will blow around a bit. I like the way you think my man…..hopefully this is what happens….the only people that want rain on the 4th of july is hermits and people that don't socialize Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 18z gfs is def a bit east of it 12z run…hopefully the euro is correct and this gets the boot….we need drier and east trend Well we could use the rain, I hope we get several inches before this weekend then or else we could see drought conditions pop up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted July 2, 2014 Author Share Posted July 2, 2014 18z gfs is def a bit east of it 12z run…hopefully the euro is correct and this gets the boot….we need drier and east trend for your info the Euro track was not used by NHC - they used the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 I like the way you think my man…..hopefully this is what happens….the only people that want rain on the 4th of july is hermits and people that don't socialize And people that work ( me ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rsteff Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 And people that work ( me ) There are many people that work and the 4th is one of their few holidays Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted July 2, 2014 Author Share Posted July 2, 2014 There are many people that work and the 4th is one of their few holidays I think the areas that will have the highest impact are the beaches and coastal waters - the people having their july 4th barbecues will not have a problem later in the day on the 4th and there still is a good chance away from the immediate coast that the rain should end by friday evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 8pm update winds still at 50mph pressure 1003mb movement is stationary.. satellite does look rather impressive .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted July 2, 2014 Author Share Posted July 2, 2014 8pm update winds still at 50mph pressure 1003mb movement is stationary.. satellite does look rather impressive .... yes water vapor does too http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/wv-animated.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Anyone notice the NHC has removed the strength probability chart from storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 so little to no impact at the beaches and the waters south of LI and east of NJ meaning swimming will be allowed and no warnings for boaters ? is that what you are saying ? Small craft advisories maybe w possible Rip current issues but people will still be boating and swimming if the sun is peeking out. I think the front comes through in time to push whatever is left of Arthur far enough offshore so any impacts will be minor. It's a stretch to feel that it holds enough strength and tracks far enough west to have any other type of impact. Jmo Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Anyone else notice an eye like feature on the latest radar loop of Arthur Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurr_Tracker13 Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Anyone else notice an eye like feature on the latest radar loop of Arthur Its not an eyewall. It might look that way. but its not. a bit of dry air is getting in causing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Its not an eyewall. It might look that way. but its not. a bit of dry air is getting in causing it.No it's an eye wall, go look in the main thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 My guess right now is it goes 150-200 miles SE of Montauk and it spares any significant impact from the storm itself to the Northeast outside of maybe outer Cape Cod and the Islands. The front will likely flare up and be good for 1-3" of rain across much of the area-a decent rain event but nothing to write home about. The coast will have a couple of days of high surf and a cloudy/rainy Thursday night/Friday morning with gustier than average winds (maybe more way out in eastern Suffolk). Hopefully Friday PM starts to clear out in order to salvage July 4th festivities. Tropical systems often clear out very quickly behind them so that's cause for optimism. I think that for Arthur to have a shot at impacting much more near the coast it either has to speed up quickly and/or intensify very quickly so that the ridge is pumped enough to slow down the trough, or the system can outrun the trough. Much more likely, the trough will catch up in time to speed this out to sea, at least far enough to avoid significant impacts beyond a rainy Thursday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hohnywx Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Its not an eyewall. It might look that way. but its not. a bit of dry air is getting in causing it. Funny because the NHC disagrees with you 000 WTNT41 KNHC 020252 TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014 1100 PM EDT TUE JUL 01 2014 Data from the Melbourne WSR-88D radar indicates that Arthur has a complex structure this evening. A mid-level cyclonic circulation accompanied by a possible eye feature is clearly evident near 27.8N 78.8W. However, the motions of the light showers/low clouds seen in the radar data suggest that the low-level center is about 25-30 n mi west of the mid-level center. Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft are scheduled to investigate Arthur early Wednesday morning to see if the center has re-formed to the east. Pending the arrival of the aircraft, the initial intensity remains 45 kt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Anyone else notice an eye like feature on the latest radar loop of Arthur Seems to be associated with the mid level circulation. Doing it's best to take over and stack vertically a new LLC under it. Def organizing, but not as impressive as it looks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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