AvantHiatus Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 The big differences this run are that it's almost 12 hours slower with the progression of the storm. The 500mb heights are pretty low key, front looks washed out. Stall or slide ENE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 Well east at hour 90. No one sees any of the bands from the actual storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 Well east at hour 90. No one sees any of the bands from the actual storm. Euro is way east of the other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 Well east at hour 90. No one sees any of the bands from the actual storm. Still well west of 00z. You can't ignore the changes either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 Still well west of 00z. It's way east of the gfs and ggem. Not even close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 It's way east of the gfs and ggem. Not even close. Dry Friday night on the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 Still well west of 00z. You can't ignore the changes either. Arthur could delay even more and miss the front, either way non-event for SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 Ahhhh this brings me back to winter lol. Good time good times. It's east. It's west. It's west of the last right but east of everything else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 It's way east of the gfs and ggem. Not even close. That means nothing. The important thing is that it was well southwest the entire run until it got north of VA beach. We both know how subject to error these tracks are outside of 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 stronger with the ridge but the slower system means the mid level flow turns westerly before the system has a chance to graze us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 Ahhhh this brings me back to winter lol. Good time good times. It's east. It's west. It's west of the last right but east of everything else. Their is no denying that's it's west of its previous run. It's still too far east which I agree with. Doesn't mean that it's correct either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 stronger with the ridge but the slower system means the mid level flow turns westerly before the system has a chance to graze us I wonder if this can slow down enough to miss the trough all together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 Their is no denying that's it's west of its previous run. It's still too far east which I agree with. Doesn't mean that it's correct either. Is it east or west? Everyone here says something different lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 Is it east or west? Everyone here says something different lol West of 0z but east of the other models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 Is it east or west? Everyone here says something different lol It's west of the previous run but still too far east to impact the region directly. This is why it's better if people clarrify what they mean by east or west before they click post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 Wow euro gives Arthur the boot. Friday sat sun all are great. Looks like the main event is Thursday afternoon into Friday early morning. Let's go this scenario Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 It's west of the previous run but still too far east to impact the region directly. This is why it's better if people clarrify what they mean by east or west before they click post. Thanks. Don't have access while on my phone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 Wow euro gives Arthur the boot. Friday sat sun all are great. Looks like the main event is Thursday afternoon into Friday early morning. Let's go this scenario The Euro has virtually no support and you can't ignore the changes that it made down south. I'd also like to know what was going on day 3 when it flipped from intense to weak to intense to weak in four consecutive frames. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 Wow euro gives Arthur the boot. Friday sat sun all are great. Looks like the main event is Thursday afternoon into Friday early morning. Let's go this scenario Friday isn't "great" I'd say. Still has a some light precip though is scattered. Sat and Sun are definitely nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 Thanks. Don't have access while on my phone. So that we cover all bases, once it gets past VA beach it actually ends up east. The further west applies to the first 84 hours only. As we know, the track at 84 hours can be off by hundreds of miles with tropical systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 Friday isn't "great" I'd say. Still has a some light precip though is scattered. Sat and Sun are definitely nice. Saturday and Sunday have always looked nice. I'm not sure why he feels the need to keep stating what we've known for days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 This isn't going to hit if that's what people are looking for. Unless something substantial happens, it'll probably move somewhere between the Euro and the other models. Even those far to the east will barely have a glance with the actual storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 This has always been about as the front came through the region the southerly flow out ahead of it would feed into the thunderstorms.Some will train and they b intense all the way to the coast.The crux of this system has been to OBX then ENE. Away from the area We will b spared it's wind and main rain but will experience rough surf and rip currents. There could b a stray band that rotates thru .If one wants to debate the timing and strength of the FROPAFine but the details will b found there not that this comes WIf one wants strong winds heavy rain and mayb see an eye wall head to OBXThankfully we will miss this . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 This isn't going to hit if that's what people are looking for. Unless something substantial happens, it'll probably move somewhere between the Euro and the other models. Even those far to the east will barely have a glance with the actual storm. It's amazing how quickly attitudes change when one model shifts west and then the next model shifts east. Emotional rollar coaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 Communications problem at NHC preventing public distribution of AF recon data. Working the issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 It's a very classic recurve pattern for us though the Euro is quite sharp and I think it's probably too far to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 Media is starting to hype this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 This isn't going to hit if that's what people are looking for. Unless something substantial happens, it'll probably move somewhere between the Euro and the other models. Even those far to the east will barely have a glance with the actual storm. Doesn't matter..the media's picked up on it...Major hurricane to hit jersey shore..ruin 4th of July weekend all along the eastern seaboard!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 Media is starting to hype this Ugh anything to get ratings. If they want to warn about the possible swimming dangers then fine but it shouldn't be more than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted July 1, 2014 Author Share Posted July 1, 2014 Doesn't matter..the media's picked up on it...Major hurricane to hit jersey shore..ruin 4th of July weekend all along the eastern seaboard!!! you have a link for that story ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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