Brian5671 Posted June 9, 2014 Share Posted June 9, 2014 1.86" on the day at EWR, about .25" from the record and the wettest day since the April 30th deluge. wow. Looks like it's done for today after this batch moves through so the record's safe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted June 9, 2014 Share Posted June 9, 2014 The 12z NAM has some activity developing this afternoon. 4k NAM thinks west of NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted June 9, 2014 Author Share Posted June 9, 2014 Is it going to clear up today? latest vis sat shows breaks in the clouds trying to work north through NJ http://climate.cod.edu/flanis/satellite/1km/index.php?type=LongIsland-vis-12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 9, 2014 Share Posted June 9, 2014 Some clearing moving north from Southern PA and NJ-might work in a bit later, especially S and W of NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 9, 2014 Share Posted June 9, 2014 Any clearing today will likely be the self destruction kind, so areas that do manage to clear out will likely have some time to destabilize before round 2 late this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 9, 2014 Share Posted June 9, 2014 Any clearing today will likely be the self destruction kind, so areas that do manage to clear out will likely have some time to destabilize before round 2 late this afternoon. Agree. which is why models likely seeing the threat west of NYC-doubt the clearing makes it east of the city and the air is pretty stable out this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted June 9, 2014 Share Posted June 9, 2014 getting brighter here….going to work at 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 9, 2014 Share Posted June 9, 2014 Agree. which is why models likely seeing the threat west of NYC-doubt the clearing makes it east of the city and the air is pretty stable out this way. The 13z HRRR has some scattered storms striking NNJ and then a second more widespread batch coming through Monmouth County and then into Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 9, 2014 Share Posted June 9, 2014 Likely won't rain the whole time but the 12z GFS doesn't have a dry panel for the area for the next 48 hours and counting. Looks like Wednesday is starting to look rather wet despite earlier thoughts it might be the best day of the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted June 9, 2014 Share Posted June 9, 2014 Im going out cutting now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted June 9, 2014 Share Posted June 9, 2014 Getting brighter out here Im going out cutting now Bad idea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 9, 2014 Share Posted June 9, 2014 torrential batch of rain moved through here in the last hour...moving out now...62 degrees. .55 on the day What a bust from 12-16 hrs out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted June 9, 2014 Share Posted June 9, 2014 Close to two inches at Newark today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 9, 2014 Share Posted June 9, 2014 The 12z GGEM has an additional 1" to as much as 3" of rain in spots the next few days. This could be one of those periods that ends up much wetter than thought a day or two in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 9, 2014 Share Posted June 9, 2014 The 12z GGEM has an additional 1 to as much as 3" of rain in spots the next few days. assuming some of the higher totals end up over NJ, that could be 5-6 inches of rain in the 3 day period starting today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted June 9, 2014 Share Posted June 9, 2014 The 12z GGEM has an additional 1 to as much as 3" of rain in spots the next few days. It's not unusual this time of year for spots to see such heavy rain, it's just that those spots are a lot more localized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted June 9, 2014 Share Posted June 9, 2014 No not a bad idea onto another lawn...not wet at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 9, 2014 Share Posted June 9, 2014 Popcorn activity now starting to fire in PA and NJ. We'll see what happens, the 12z globals are fairly enthusiastic about rain tonight but the latest HRRR has backed off some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 9, 2014 Share Posted June 9, 2014 Upton hinting at an outside flood risk for the end of the week. .HYDROLOGY...AROUND 1/2 INCH OF BASIN AVERAGE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TODAY.LOCALLY HIGHER PRECIP OF 1 TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE.SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE LATER THIS WEEK...FIRST WITH AWARM FRONTAL PASSAGE THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING...THEN WITHDIURNAL CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH FRIAFTERNOON/NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL BE ABUNDANT...WITH PRECIPITABLEWATERS POSSIBLY NEARING 2 INCHES PER 00Z ECMWF...AND STORMS COULDBE SLOW MOVING/TRAINING GIVEN RELATIVELY WEAK DEEP LAYER SW FLOW.HAVE MENTIONED THIS POTENTIAL IN HWO FOR NYC METRO NORTH/WEST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 9, 2014 Share Posted June 9, 2014 Popcorn activity now starting to fire in PA and NJ. We'll see what happens, the 12z globals are fairly enthusiastic about rain tonight but the latest HRRR has backed off some. And on queue philly radar goes down again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted June 9, 2014 Share Posted June 9, 2014 Picked up 1.79" of rain so far today, most of it falling this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 10, 2014 Share Posted June 10, 2014 So far we're at 1.91" on the month here in Pompton Plains after the 0.89" that fell yesterday. That's about 25% above normal so far on the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 10, 2014 Share Posted June 10, 2014 It's almost comical, the 12z NAM has most areas staying dry for the next 48 hours while the 12z GFS barely has a dry panel the next 3 days. In any event looks like the heaviest rains will fall west of the city and perhaps even west of Philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 10, 2014 Share Posted June 10, 2014 It's almost comical, the 12z NAM has most areas staying dry for the next 48 hours while the 12z GFS barely has a dry panel the next 3 days. In any event looks like the heaviest rains will fall west of the city and perhaps even west of Philly. Yeah but the GFS barely amounts to half an inch between now and Friday morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 10, 2014 Share Posted June 10, 2014 Yeah but the GFS barely amounts to half an inch between now and Friday morning Because it doesn't have the resolution to pick up on heavier areas of storms. The activity won't be widespread between now and then so it just broad brushes where the best dynamics are. Basin averages might only be around 0.50" while some areas are dry and others exceed 2" locally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 10, 2014 Share Posted June 10, 2014 The NAM being that dry makes sense for tomorrow with the backdoor dropping through, that's usually a stable airmass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 10, 2014 Share Posted June 10, 2014 The NAM being that dry makes sense for tomorrow with the backdoor dropping through, that's usually a stable airmass. The 4k NAM shows a lot more activity and dew points staying above 55 unless you're into New England. It then brings dew points back into the upper 60's for Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 10, 2014 Share Posted June 10, 2014 The 4k NAM shows a lot more activity and dew points staying above 55 unless you're into New England. It then brings dew points back into the upper 60's for Thursday. NYC north and east definitely look dry tomorrow- S and W of there different story especially along where the front stalls and maybe any interaction with seabreezes--seen some interesting stuff in that regard over the years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 10, 2014 Share Posted June 10, 2014 looking generally hot and humid after the 15th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 10, 2014 Share Posted June 10, 2014 looking generally hot and humid after the 15th Assuming it happens, that will put the ghosts of June 2009 to bed for good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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