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June 2014


NEG NAO

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Any clearing today will likely be the self destruction kind, so areas that do manage to clear out will likely have some time to destabilize before round 2 late this afternoon.

Agree. which is why models likely seeing the threat west of NYC-doubt the clearing makes it east of the city and the air is pretty stable out this way.

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Agree. which is why models likely seeing the threat west of NYC-doubt the clearing makes it east of the city and the air is pretty stable out this way.

The 13z HRRR has some scattered storms striking NNJ and then a second more widespread batch coming through Monmouth County and then into Long Island.

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Upton hinting at an outside flood risk for the end of the week.

 

.HYDROLOGY...
AROUND 1/2 INCH OF BASIN AVERAGE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TODAY.
LOCALLY HIGHER PRECIP OF 1 TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE.

SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE LATER THIS WEEK...FIRST WITH A
WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING...THEN WITH
DIURNAL CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH FRI
AFTERNOON/NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL BE ABUNDANT...WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATERS POSSIBLY NEARING 2 INCHES PER 00Z ECMWF...AND STORMS COULD
BE SLOW MOVING/TRAINING GIVEN RELATIVELY WEAK DEEP LAYER SW FLOW.
HAVE MENTIONED THIS POTENTIAL IN HWO FOR NYC METRO NORTH/WEST.
 

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It's almost comical, the 12z NAM has most areas staying dry for the next 48 hours while the 12z GFS barely has a dry panel the next 3 days. In any event looks like the heaviest rains will fall west of the city and perhaps even west of Philly.

Yeah but the GFS barely amounts to half an inch between now and Friday morning

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Yeah but the GFS barely amounts to half an inch between now and Friday morning

Because it doesn't have the resolution to pick up on heavier areas of storms. The activity won't be widespread between now and then so it just broad brushes where the best dynamics are. Basin averages might only be around 0.50" while some areas are dry and others exceed 2" locally.

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The 4k NAM shows a lot more activity and dew points staying above 55 unless you're into New England. It then brings dew points back into the upper 60's for Thursday.

NYC north and east definitely look dry tomorrow- S and W of there different story especially along where the front stalls and maybe any interaction with seabreezes--seen some interesting stuff in that regard over the years.

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