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June 2014


NEG NAO

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Do you folks see the back door days of Tuesday 6/10, and Wednesday 6/11 in the upper 50's, or as high as the upper 60's with those forecasted 14 Celsius 925 temps?  Will this be broken mostly cloudy to overcast , or complete stratus overcast on your judgment?  I wonder if we get some true low end heat e.g. upper 80's + in here after day 6.  ECMWF sniffing out heat chance on 00Z 6/7/14 run.  Starting to remind me of the 1994 June heat and severe in the 6/13 to 6/19 1994 year.  I bet we get one 91-95 degree day around 6/14-6/16.  Just hunch of heat expansion and a possible heat push coming in better heat producing pattern here.  ECMWF pushing 13-17 C 850's in long range, on a model, that sometimes dives Nova Scotia toughing and BDCFs in the long range sometimes too aggressive. Low end heat, not big heat signal yet.... but enough to bring out the big tall tees and the baggy big shorts in NYC.  The Galaxy Harvic hip hop urban tees start at 2X and go to 8X.  Wow that's big !!!

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June is ready to turn warmer and wetter in the longer range - above normal temps and above normal precip

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/fxus06.html

 

Generally above normal temps with no heat waves in sight.

NEW YORK CITY-LAGUARDIA    KLGA   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE   6/07/2014  0000 UTC                        FHR  24| 36  48| 60  72| 84  96|108 120|132 144|156 168|180 192       SAT  07| SUN 08| MON 09| TUE 10| WED 11| THU 12| FRI 13| SAT 14 CLIMO X/N  82| 66  86| 66  78| 67  84| 66  80| 64  81| 66  82| 69  85 62 79
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Generally above normal temps with no heat waves in sight.

NEW YORK CITY-LAGUARDIA    KLGA   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE   6/07/2014  0000 UTC                        FHR  24| 36  48| 60  72| 84  96|108 120|132 144|156 168|180 192       SAT  07| SUN 08| MON 09| TUE 10| WED 11| THU 12| FRI 13| SAT 14 CLIMO X/N  82| 66  86| 66  78| 67  84| 66  80| 64  81| 66  82| 69  85 62 79

we don't need the above normal precip - the normal  mosquito outbreak has not gotten out of control yet and the reservoirs are close to full capacity. We also don't need excessive heat because right now we are in an energy crisis because the power plants and grid are having a difficult time meeting energy demands - we almost had a widespread blackout during the frigid temps in January

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we don't need the above normal precip - the normal  mosquito outbreak has not gotten out of control yet and the reservoirs are close to full capacity. We also don't need excessive heat because right now we are in an energy crisis because the power plants and grid are having a difficult time meeting energy demands - we almost had a widespread blackout during the frigid temps in January

 

The good news is that the heaviest rains are occurring over the Southern-Central Plains which is easing the drought there.

 

 

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The good news is that the heaviest rains are occurring over the Southern-Central Plains which is easing the drought there.

gfs_namer_192_precip_ptot.gif

20140603_usdm_home.png

Texas has received a lot of relief the past several weeks and that trend looks to continue. As far as our sensible weather goes, it's a wet period east of the Rockies with a slow stagnent pattern in place. Odds are it won't be days of synoptic rain but it won't be sunny either. I could do without any major heat waves right through the beginning of July.
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I do think our chance at 90 will increase significantly past mid month and not only because of climo. Looks like we might lose some of that blocking influence and get the jet stream further north promoting more heat coming in from the SW.

I'm gonna take a stab at this and say our first heat wave arrives June 24-26 give or a day a couple days.

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I do think our chance at 90 will increase significantly past mid month and not only because of climo. Looks like we might lose some of that blocking influence and get the jet stream further north promoting more heat coming in from the SW.

I'm gonna take a stab at this and say our first heat wave arrives June 24-26 give or a day a couple days.

Where do you see that? I see nothing but more signs of blocking continuing right through the end of the month.

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Where do you see that? I see nothing but more signs of blocking continuing right through the end of the month.

A combination of a more negative NAO along with the jet stream naturally climbing further north has often tended to promote heat for us in the past. It's common negative influence (-NAO) for us diminishes substantially in the summer. I don't think the blocking will completely go away but it's effects will lessen and we've already been above normal even with blocking for over a month now.

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A combination of a more negative NAO along with the jet stream naturally climbing further north has often tended to promote heat for us in the past. It's common negative influence (-NAO) for us diminishes substantially in the summer. I don't think the blocking will completely go away but it's effects will lessen and we've already been above normal even with blocking for over a month now.

Blocky doesn't mean cold, it means slow stagnent patterns. The upcoming pattern looks warm, humid and wet and that's been well advertised now for about a week.
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Another truly terrific weekend shaping up weather-wise.  Blue skies - nothing but blue skies.   - Lets Go Rangers...

 

 

12 PM Roundup

 

NYC: 76

EWR:  77

LGA:  75

JFK:  77

New Brunswick:  67

Not sure that 67 at New Brunswick was correct unless you meant 76. Currently around 80 there.

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Slow moving elevated convection signal tomorrow morning. Could see some localized

heavy rain in areas that get training.

 

attachicon.gifSND.gif

The 12z NAM  and the 0Z Euro looks to take the heavier rain through Monmouth and Ocean Counties . The 4k NAM is much more widespread .

But I agree with you , localized would be a good description .

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