winterwarlock Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 Dry begets dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 Most of the instability today is south of the Ohio Valley region but the storms should be entering a somewhat more favorable environment as they approach the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 The models have not been handling the ongoing convection near Cincinnati well so far. Even the latest HRRR has this complex dissipating in the next 1-2 hours but that looks to be far from the actual outcome. I believe this is the original complex that was responsible for all of the damage in Nebraska yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 meanwhile the warmth continues. most places have a shot at 80 or better today. 72 here already at 10am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 Could be on a Derecho alert from the midwest and points east today . Im not exactly enthused about this "derecho". We had a similar situation last summer and when the storms go to our area they just fell apart rapidly, starting in the WNJ area and eastward. Yes some of the severe parameters do look good but i want to focus on the lapse rates and sheer for these storms as this was the demise of the derecho last summer, mostly the very meager lapse rates at that time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 12z 4k NAM initialized without the convection in southern Ohio. What a stellar model for what is supposed to have predicting convection as its bread and butter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 12z NAM places the heaviest rain directly over NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 12z NAM places the heaviest rain directly over NYC. Yes but it keeps severe chances confined south of the area. Looks to be just heavy stratiform rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 Storm reports thus far with this MCS: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/yesterday.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 It did rain here pretty good for a while which was nice to see but there werent any thunderstorms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 Yes but it keeps severe chances confined south of the area. Looks to be just heavy stratiform rain. Best severe probs always looked to be across S PA and SNJ. The 65F dew point surge even on yesterday's Euro was confined from CNJ southward. Most of us are looking at heavy elevated convection in this set-up, which can still yield some impressive boomers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 the euro showed a further north low on its 12z run. 0z kills our spinup chances Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 Heavy (not severe) convection for the middle of the region late tonight on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 Away from the garden variety heavy rain for tonight into tommorow morning, this upcoming weekend so far looks awesome! Temps upper 70's-low 80's and sunny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 12z 4k NAM has the heaviest steadiest rains falling from 07z - 14z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 3AM 5AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 That's a pretty large area of stratiform rain, extends from Cleveland to Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 This reminds me of one of those quick overrunning winter events that dumps a swath of 5-10" snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 This reminds me of one of those quick overrunning winter events that dumps a swath of 5-10" snow. So maybe i can reach my 70 inches on the season afterall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 This reminds me of one of those quick overrunning winter events that dumps a swath of 5-10" snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 12z ECMWF starting to catch onto the eastern Gulf development late next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 5, 2014 Share Posted June 5, 2014 The Gulf is going to be open for business next week as troughing over the Ohio Valley, possibly a cut off low interacts with tropical moisture coming northward out of the gulf and up the east coast. Looks to be another unsettled period with no big warm ups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 6, 2014 Share Posted June 6, 2014 Picture perfect June weekend on tap. Not much else to say unless you want severe weather or major heat. At this point nothing like that looks to be on the horizon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 6, 2014 Share Posted June 6, 2014 Picture perfect June weekend on tap. Not much else to say unless you want severe weather or major heat. At this point nothing like that looks to be on the horizon. Couldn't agree more. Give me 75-85 and dry most days like we've been the past few weeks. Enjoy your weekend, I will be outdoors! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted June 6, 2014 Share Posted June 6, 2014 Couldn't agree more. Give me 75-85 and dry most days like we've been the past few weeks. Enjoy your weekend, I will be outdoors! It's yawn worthy but it will be a nice June weekend though I'd prefer upper 70s to 80 vs mid 80s. Things do look more unsettled next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 6, 2014 Share Posted June 6, 2014 It's yawn worthy but it will be a nice June weekend though I'd prefer upper 70s to 80 vs mid 80s. Things do look more unsettled next week. Basically every Monday thru Thursday has been unsettled since April. Most of the time it doesn't end up meaning much except for clouds and showers and an occasional period of heavy rain. No reason to think next week will be any different Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 6, 2014 Share Posted June 6, 2014 Basically every Monday thru Thursday has been unsettled since April. Most of the time it doesn't end up meaning much except for clouds and showers and an occasional period of heavy rain. No reason to think next week will be any different We've lucked out in that department-get the rain out of the way during the week! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted June 6, 2014 Share Posted June 6, 2014 Basically every Monday thru Thursday has been unsettled since April. Most of the time it doesn't end up meaning much except for clouds and showers and an occasional period of heavy rain. No reason to think next week will be any different Well that's what unsettled means this time of year. You're rarely going to see rain all day but you could always see localized downpours nearly any day in the summer. You'll also have the sunny mornings turn to tstorms by the afternoon but everything is usually local vs widespread. This is probably what we will see next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 6, 2014 Share Posted June 6, 2014 Basically next week looks warm and muggy with lots of clouds and rain at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted June 6, 2014 Share Posted June 6, 2014 Will the one doom and gloomer be posting about rain and cool next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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