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June 2014


NEG NAO

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The models have not been handling the ongoing convection near Cincinnati well so far. Even the latest HRRR has this complex dissipating in the next 1-2 hours but that looks to be far from the actual outcome. I believe this is the original complex that was responsible for all of the damage in Nebraska yesterday.

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Could be on a Derecho alert from the midwest and points east today .

Im not exactly enthused about this "derecho". We had a similar situation last summer and when the storms go to our area they just fell apart rapidly, starting in the WNJ area and eastward. Yes some of the severe parameters do look good but i want to focus on the lapse rates and sheer for these storms as this was the demise of the derecho last summer, mostly the very meager lapse rates at that time

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Yes but it keeps severe chances confined south of the area. Looks to be just heavy stratiform rain.

 

Best severe probs always looked to be across S PA and SNJ. The 65F dew point surge even on yesterday's Euro was confined from CNJ southward. Most of us are looking at heavy elevated convection in this set-up, which can still yield some impressive boomers.

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Picture perfect June weekend on tap. Not much else to say unless you want severe weather or major heat. At this point nothing like that looks to be on the horizon.

Couldn't agree more.  Give me 75-85 and dry most days like we've been the past few weeks.   Enjoy your weekend, I will be outdoors!

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It's yawn worthy but it will be a nice June weekend though I'd prefer upper 70s to 80 vs mid 80s. Things do look more unsettled next week.

Basically every Monday thru Thursday has been unsettled since April. Most of the time it doesn't end up meaning much except for clouds and showers and an occasional period of heavy rain. No reason to think next week will be any different

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Basically every Monday thru Thursday has been unsettled since April. Most of the time it doesn't end up meaning much except for clouds and showers and an occasional period of heavy rain. No reason to think next week will be any different

 

We've lucked out in that department-get the rain out of the way during the week!

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Basically every Monday thru Thursday has been unsettled since April. Most of the time it doesn't end up meaning much except for clouds and showers and an occasional period of heavy rain. No reason to think next week will be any different

Well that's what unsettled means this time of year. You're rarely going to see rain all day but you could always see localized downpours nearly any day in the summer. You'll also have the sunny mornings turn to tstorms by the afternoon but everything is usually local vs widespread.

This is probably what we will see next week.

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