wolfie09 Posted June 25, 2014 Share Posted June 25, 2014 Heavy rain here in freehold.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted June 25, 2014 Share Posted June 25, 2014 I agree. I think there are increased moisture levels as a result of a warming world, therefore preventing temps from dropping as low at Strongly disagree. Relative humidity has actually declined slightly over the past 50 years overall. One can see such a pattern at various atmospheric levels, 300mb through 700mb. In terms of precipitable water vapor, there's been a decline in the mid/upper levels of the atmosphere, while the surface layer has shown a slight increase: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted June 25, 2014 Share Posted June 25, 2014 No denying we are entering an even warmer world, last couple months have broken global records and at this rate 2014 could end up being the warmest year on record with aid from the El Njno. The warmer mins definitely seem to play a stronger role though than warmer highs and we still get some cold and snowy winters so I assume the extremes will continue to increase. Eventually the warmth will overpower winter as well but probably beyond our lifetime. I don't want to turn this into the climate forum, but since it's being discussed, I'm going to respond. If you're going to say we're breaking all kinds of global records, make sure you clarify which data set you're referring to. Thus far, April 2014 and May 2014 are about 4th-7th warmest on record as per the UAH dataset. So very warm, but we haven't surpassed the 2010 and 1998 torches at this point. Everything else you said is conjecture with regards to tipping points and can be debated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted June 25, 2014 Share Posted June 25, 2014 Getting blasted here with torrential rains. Just surpassed 1" in about 15 minutes. Hvy rain continuing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
salseneca Posted June 25, 2014 Share Posted June 25, 2014 ECMWF just reversed next weeks heat. Actually seeing below normal anomalies. Seems to be extreme changes for not even 7 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted June 25, 2014 Share Posted June 25, 2014 Hit the jackpot here, up to 1.30" from these cells in Monmouth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 25, 2014 Share Posted June 25, 2014 Hit the jackpot here, up to 1.30" from these cells in Monmouth. Very jealous. Hope it comes up my way soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 25, 2014 Share Posted June 25, 2014 Strongly disagree. Relative humidity has actually declined slightly over the past 50 years overall. One can see such a pattern at various atmospheric levels, 300mb through 700mb. In terms of precipitable water vapor, there's been a decline in the mid/upper levels of the atmosphere, while the surface layer has shown a slight increase: source for this data? this page shows an increase http://images.remss.com/cdr/climate_data_record_browse.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted June 25, 2014 Share Posted June 25, 2014 source for this data? this page shows an increase http://images.remss.com/cdr/climate_data_record_browse.html What atmospheric level is that though? If it's surface, there has been a slight increase in vapor. However, there has been a distinct decline in the mid-upper parts of the atmosphere, The data is from the NASA water vapor project. Water vapor changes in the mid to upper troposphere are much more significant in terms of its impact on global OLR and temperature when compared to near surface water vapor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 25, 2014 Share Posted June 25, 2014 it's total pwat... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted June 25, 2014 Share Posted June 25, 2014 Strongly disagree. Relative humidity has actually declined slightly over the past 50 years overall. One can see such a pattern at various atmospheric levels, 300mb through 700mb. In terms of precipitable water vapor, there's been a decline in the mid/upper levels of the atmosphere, while the surface layer has shown a slight increase. Why are you showing me charts of humidity levels tens of thousands of feet above the surface? Like your charts said, surface moisture has increased, therefore surface temps can and are being impacted. I'm referring to overnight lows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted June 25, 2014 Share Posted June 25, 2014 What atmospheric level is that though? If it's surface, there has been a slight increase in vapor. However, there has been a distinct decline in the mid-upper parts of the atmosphere, The data is from the NASA water vapor project. Water vapor changes in the mid to upper troposphere are much more significant in terms of its impact on global OLR and temperature when compared to near surface water vapor. But I was referring to radiational cooling (nighttime lows) which is affected by several factors including surface dewpoints, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted June 25, 2014 Share Posted June 25, 2014 Why are you showing me charts of humidity levels tens of thousands of feet above the surface? Like your charts said, surface moisture has increased, therefore surface temps can and are being impacted. I'm referring to overnight lows. I was just pointing out that RH and vapor has not increased in the mid/upper levels. However, speaking in terms of the surface, there has been an increase in precipitable water (which makes sense - in tandem with the warming). The layers above the surface have shown opposite trends in terms of moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted June 25, 2014 Share Posted June 25, 2014 The upper troposphere has indeed been moistening according to observations. The data you are using Tom is the NCEP reanalysis, and should be treated with caution when evaluating tropospheric water vapor trends. http://www.sciencemag.org/content/310/5749/841 http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2010JD014192/abstract Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted June 25, 2014 Author Share Posted June 25, 2014 most of the metro should see some showers later this evening with scattered convection - most of the early action will be north and west - wouldn't be surprised if some flash flood warnings are issued in scattered locations tonight http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/WXTYPE/loop25ne.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted June 25, 2014 Share Posted June 25, 2014 The upper troposphere has indeed been moistening according to observations. The data you are using Tom is the NCEP reanalysis, and should be treated with caution when evaluating tropospheric water vapor trends. http://www.sciencemag.org/content/310/5749/841 http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2010JD014192/abstract NASA satellite data (from the NASA water vapor project) shows a decline in upper atmospheric vapor as well though. Will just agree to disagree here as the thread has probably gone too off topic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted June 25, 2014 Author Share Posted June 25, 2014 NASA satellite data (from the NASA water vapor project) shows a decline in upper atmospheric vapor as well though. Will just agree to disagree here as the thread has probably gone too off topic. another interesting thread would be about climate change - I assume that is what you are guys are talking about - could have some real good debates in that one.............with the usual suspects on one side and the other suspects on the other side...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted June 25, 2014 Share Posted June 25, 2014 NASA satellite data (from the NASA water vapor project) shows a decline in upper atmospheric vapor as well though. Will just agree to disagree here as the thread has probably gone too off topic. I agree. I'll start a thread about it on the Climate forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted June 25, 2014 Share Posted June 25, 2014 Overperformed temps imby...cirrently 89..come on push push you can do it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted June 25, 2014 Author Share Posted June 25, 2014 Overperformed temps imby...cirrently 89..come on push push you can do it this is the reason you can not rule out some reporting stations reaching 90 or above this time of the year even if temps were forecasted to be a few degrees cooler - I still say we will see at least one widespread heat wave - 3 days in a row above 90 here before July 10..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted June 25, 2014 Share Posted June 25, 2014 Overperformed temps imby...cirrently 89..come on push push you can do it I'm seating on 79F. But it feels humid. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted June 25, 2014 Share Posted June 25, 2014 Any chance for some severe activity in the city tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted June 25, 2014 Author Share Posted June 25, 2014 Any chance for some severe activity in the city tonight? Yes and No Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 25, 2014 Share Posted June 25, 2014 i doubt it even rains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 25, 2014 Share Posted June 25, 2014 The 18z 4K NAM is really nice, with mulitple rounds of storms from about 7PM on. It really blows up the activity that's currently just north of Philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted June 25, 2014 Share Posted June 25, 2014 Shear is weak. Severe wx not likely. Any storms are slow and pulsing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 25, 2014 Share Posted June 25, 2014 Shear is weak. Severe wx not likely. Any storms are slow and pulsing.Better for flooding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted June 25, 2014 Share Posted June 25, 2014 Shear is weak. Severe wx not likely. Any storms are slow and pulsing. Any type of severe chances these days seem to just go up in flames....still have not had a legit severe storm in years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted June 25, 2014 Share Posted June 25, 2014 Easily the best thunderstorm of the year right now here. Some gusty winds, constant thunder, and heavy rain. The only one in the state now as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stemwinder Posted June 25, 2014 Share Posted June 25, 2014 That storm skirted me going through Princeton on your way. Got noisier as it passed by. I'm just south of Princeton. More on its way in PA (?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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