Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,589
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

June 2014


NEG NAO

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.2k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

I agree. I think there are increased moisture levels as a result of a warming world, therefore preventing temps from dropping as low at

 

 

Strongly disagree.

 

Relative humidity has actually declined slightly over the past 50 years overall. One can see such a pattern at various atmospheric levels, 300mb through 700mb.

 

 

nycxuc.jpg

 

 

In terms of precipitable water vapor, there's been a decline in the mid/upper levels of the atmosphere, while the surface layer has shown a slight increase:

 

2ugcqig.jpg

Link to comment
Share on other sites

No denying we are entering an even warmer world, last couple months have broken global records and at this rate 2014 could end up being the warmest year on record with aid from the El Njno.

The warmer mins definitely seem to play a stronger role though than warmer highs and we still get some cold and snowy winters so I assume the extremes will continue to increase. Eventually the warmth will overpower winter as well but probably beyond our lifetime.

 

 

I don't want to turn this into the climate forum, but since it's being discussed, I'm going to respond. If you're going to say we're breaking all kinds of global records, make sure you clarify which data set you're referring to. Thus far, April 2014 and May 2014 are about 4th-7th warmest on record as per the UAH dataset. So very warm, but we haven't surpassed the 2010 and 1998 torches at this point.

 

Everything else you said is conjecture with regards to tipping points and can be debated.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Strongly disagree.

 

Relative humidity has actually declined slightly over the past 50 years overall. One can see such a pattern at various atmospheric levels, 300mb through 700mb.

 

 

nycxuc.jpg

 

 

In terms of precipitable water vapor, there's been a decline in the mid/upper levels of the atmosphere, while the surface layer has shown a slight increase:

 

2ugcqig.jpg

source for this data? this page shows an increase

http://images.remss.com/cdr/climate_data_record_browse.html

rss.mw.cdr_1988-2013_month_vapor_trend_m

Link to comment
Share on other sites

source for this data? this page shows an increase

http://images.remss.com/cdr/climate_data_record_browse.html

rss.mw.cdr_1988-2013_month_vapor_trend_m

 

 

 

What atmospheric level is that though? If it's surface, there has been a slight increase in vapor. However, there has been a distinct decline in the mid-upper parts of the atmosphere,

 

The data is from the NASA water vapor project. Water vapor changes in the mid to upper troposphere are much more significant in terms of its impact on global OLR and temperature when compared to near surface water vapor.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Strongly disagree.

Relative humidity has actually declined slightly over the past 50 years overall. One can see such a pattern at various atmospheric levels, 300mb through 700mb.

In terms of precipitable water vapor, there's been a decline in the mid/upper levels of the atmosphere, while the surface layer has shown a slight increase.

Why are you showing me charts of humidity levels tens of thousands of feet above the surface? Like your charts said, surface moisture has increased, therefore surface temps can and are being impacted. I'm referring to overnight lows.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

What atmospheric level is that though? If it's surface, there has been a slight increase in vapor. However, there has been a distinct decline in the mid-upper parts of the atmosphere,

The data is from the NASA water vapor project. Water vapor changes in the mid to upper troposphere are much more significant in terms of its impact on global OLR and temperature when compared to near surface water vapor.

But I was referring to radiational cooling (nighttime lows) which is affected by several factors including surface dewpoints, no?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Why are you showing me charts of humidity levels tens of thousands of feet above the surface? Like your charts said, surface moisture has increased, therefore surface temps can and are being impacted. I'm referring to overnight lows.

 

 

 

 

I was just pointing out that RH and vapor has not increased in the mid/upper levels.

 

However, speaking in terms of the surface, there has been an increase in precipitable water (which makes sense - in tandem with the warming).

 

The layers above the surface have shown opposite trends in terms of moisture.

 

 

kby3x2.png

 

jsnmh2.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The upper troposphere has indeed been moistening according to observations. The data you are using Tom is the NCEP reanalysis, and should be treated with caution when evaluating tropospheric water vapor trends.

 

http://www.sciencemag.org/content/310/5749/841

 

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2010JD014192/abstract

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The upper troposphere has indeed been moistening according to observations. The data you are using Tom is the NCEP reanalysis, and should be treated with caution when evaluating tropospheric water vapor trends.

 

http://www.sciencemag.org/content/310/5749/841

 

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2010JD014192/abstract

 

 

 NASA satellite data (from the NASA water vapor project) shows a decline in upper atmospheric vapor as well though. Will just agree to disagree here as the thread has probably gone too off topic.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

 NASA satellite data (from the NASA water vapor project) shows a decline in upper atmospheric vapor as well though. Will just agree to disagree here as the thread has probably gone too off topic.

another interesting thread would be about climate change - I assume that is what you are guys are talking about - could have some real good debates in that one.............with the usual suspects on one side and the other suspects on the other side......

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Overperformed temps imby...cirrently 89..come on push push you can do it

this is the reason you can not rule out some reporting stations reaching 90 or above this time of the year even if temps were forecasted to be a few degrees cooler - I still say we will see at least one widespread heat wave - 3 days in a row above 90 here before July 10.....

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...