uncle W Posted June 24, 2014 Share Posted June 24, 2014 Temperatures have been seasonable so far. LaGuardia & Newark are close to +0.0 DFN for June. LGA is +0.1 for June and Newark is +0.6. When one speaks of above normal temperatures (or below normal)...the departure usually has to be greater than 1.0 degrees in order to be statistically significant, IMO. the normals are fudged lower for most months...noaa has June at 71.5 for Central Park for the 1981 to 2010 period...the real average is around 71.8...We are closer to the average than the fudged normal... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Claus Posted June 24, 2014 Share Posted June 24, 2014 So this weather has been about perfect. As long as there's enough rain for the plants and resevoirs I could take this weather forever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted June 24, 2014 Share Posted June 24, 2014 Temperatures have been seasonable so far. LaGuardia & Newark are close to +0.0 DFN for June. LGA is +0.1 for June and Newark is +0.6. When one speaks of above normal temperatures (or below normal)...the departure usually has to be greater than 1.0 degrees in order to be statistically significant, IMO. JFK and ISP are +1.4 and +2.1 respectively. I think it's fair to say it's a bit above normal, not normal, but a bit above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted June 24, 2014 Share Posted June 24, 2014 JFK and ISP are +1.4 and +2.1 respectively. I think it's fair to say it's a bit above normal, not normal, but a bit above. Yes, at JFK & ISP... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 25, 2014 Share Posted June 25, 2014 Temperatures have been seasonable so far. LaGuardia & Newark are close to +0.0 DFN for June. LGA is +0.1 for June and Newark is +0.6. When one speaks of above normal temperatures (or below normal)...the departure usually has to be greater than 1.0 degrees in order to be statistically significant, IMO. I generally use 0.0 to gauge over or under. The NYC/LGA/EWR/JFK average for June to date is +0.7 with generally above normal temperatures expected over next week. It's similar to the May pattern across the area which finished at +0.9. It's not a large warm departure considering what we have experienced here in recent years. Despite the ridging in the means over the area since the start of May, the low pressure nearby just off the coast has kept the high temperature potential less than the more extreme warmth experienced by this time of year since 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted June 25, 2014 Share Posted June 25, 2014 Convection this afternoon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted June 25, 2014 Author Share Posted June 25, 2014 Convection this afternoon? better chance in the northern portions of the metro as the jet is located closer to them - if we do get any heavy rain from convection chances are greater this evening especially in areas where storms are training and again the further north you are the better chance. Not alot of instability to work with over much of the metro.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted June 25, 2014 Share Posted June 25, 2014 Most hi-res models are keeping any concentrated convection well N&W of the area today. Next week we should have the shot of some convection area wide but that is yet to be determined as well.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted June 25, 2014 Share Posted June 25, 2014 the normals are fudged lower for most months...noaa has June at 71.5 for Central Park for the 1981 to 2010 period...the real average is around 71.8...We are closer to the average than the fudged normal... The fact that we are consistently above normal from a moving (increasing) 30 average is sad. How much above normal are we when compared to 71-00? Or 61-90? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted June 25, 2014 Share Posted June 25, 2014 The fact that we are consistently above normal from a moving (increasing) 30 average is sad. How much above normal are we when compared to 71-00? Or 61-90? since the 1930's June has been averaging around 71.5...The minimums have gone up... June......Ave temp...max...min...ave max/min... 1870's.....70.4.......na.....na.....na.....na 1880's.....70.5.......96.....48.....91.0.....51.5 1890's.....70.9.......97.....48.....93.6.....53.4 1900's.....70.0.......95.....48.....91.1.....52.7 1910's.....69.0.......95.....47.....90.9.....51.1 1920's.....70.1.......99.....45.....92.7.....51.0 1930's.....71.6.....101.....47.....93.7.....52.4 1940's.....71.5.......99.....44.....93.9.....51.1 1950's.....71.2.....100.....48.....94.2.....51.9 1960's.....72.0.....101.....48.....95.5.....52.7 1970's.....71.0.......95.....46.....91.1.....52.0 1980's.....71.7.......98.....47.....92.7.....52.6 1990's.....72.2.......98.....49.....92.8.....52.6 2000's.....71.3.......96.....49.....91.4.....52.5 2010's.....72.7.......95.....51.....94.0.....54.7 1870/1880- 2009 ave 70.9.....101.....44.....92.7.....52.1 1980- 2009 ave 71.7.......97.....47.....92.3.....52.6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 25, 2014 Share Posted June 25, 2014 The HRRR has a fairly potent looking squall line approaching the area around 00z tonight. Pumps SBCAPE to around 1500 J/KG west of NYC. The RAP has several waves of showers and thunderstorms for the area lasting well into the overnight. Pretty decent uptick in the 09z SREF plumes with the mean up to 0.73" IMBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 25, 2014 Share Posted June 25, 2014 Mt. Holly seems to think that some areas may experience flash flooding today. .HYDROLOGY...THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAIN TODAY AND TONIGHTREMAINS WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME LOCAL FLOODING AS THE PW VALUESARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO AROUND 2.00 INCHES.AS A COLD FRONT NEARS, THE FLOW IS GENERALLY PARALLEL TO IT WHICHINTRODUCES THE RISK FOR TRAINING CONVECTIVE CELLS. THE FORECASTSOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT CONVECTION WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BERATHER EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS, AND ANY TRAINING OR MULTICELLCLUSTERS WILL ENHANCE THE HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING THREAT. THE ARRIVALOF A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE FRONT MAY ALSO ENHANCE THE LOW-LEVELCONVERGENCE AND ALLOW FOR MORE FOCUSED DOWNPOURS. THIS LOOKS TOINITIALLY BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES, THEN IT GRADUALLYSHIFTS EAST DURING THE EVENING. THE 1-HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCESHOWS NORTHERN NEW JERSEY AND PORTIONS OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIAWITH VALUES AT OR LESS THAN 2.00 INCHES. THESE SIMILAR AREAS ONTHE 3-HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE HAVE VALUES BETWEEN ABOUT 2.00 AND2.50 INCHES. IT IS THESE LOCATIONS AND THE MORE URBANIZED SPOTSTHAT ARE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING. A FLASH FLOOD WATCHIS NOT BEING ISSUED ATTM DUE TO SOME QUESTION ON HOW MUCHCONVECTION DEVELOPS /AREAL COVERAGE/ AND WHERE IF BECOMES FOCUSEDTHE LONGEST. A MENTION HOWEVER REMAINS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHEROUTLOOK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted June 25, 2014 Share Posted June 25, 2014 Warm muggies are here to stay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 25, 2014 Share Posted June 25, 2014 Warm muggies are here to stay Two questions for ya.. 1) Do you have AC in your house or wherever you live? 2) Do you sleep with the AC on during muggy warm nights? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted June 25, 2014 Share Posted June 25, 2014 The fact that we are consistently above normal from a moving (increasing) 30 average is sad. How much above normal are we when compared to 71-00? Or 61-90? No denying we are entering an even warmer world, last couple months have broken global records and at this rate 2014 could end up being the warmest year on record with aid from the El Njno. The warmer mins definitely seem to play a stronger role though than warmer highs and we still get some cold and snowy winters so I assume the extremes will continue to increase. Eventually the warmth will overpower winter as well but probably beyond our lifetime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted June 25, 2014 Share Posted June 25, 2014 Warm muggies are here to stay Definitely more muggy outside today. Since the sun came out here in the city it's become almost sauna-like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted June 25, 2014 Share Posted June 25, 2014 40% risk upgraded for most of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted June 25, 2014 Share Posted June 25, 2014 Warm muggies are here to stay Humidity is back for revenge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted June 25, 2014 Share Posted June 25, 2014 Yes I do and no I don't Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted June 25, 2014 Share Posted June 25, 2014 Warm muggies are here to stay Terrible weather for people who work outside Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted June 25, 2014 Share Posted June 25, 2014 No denying we are entering an even warmer world, last couple months have broken global records and at this rate 2014 could end up being the warmest year on record with aid from the El Njno. The warmer mins definitely seem to play a stronger role though than warmer highs and we still get some cold and snowy winters so I assume the extremes will continue to increase. Eventually the warmth will overpower winter as well but probably beyond our lifetime. I agree. I think there are increased moisture levels as a result of a warming world, therefore preventing temps from dropping as low at night as they could have. Obviously this is a long term thing and not one specific muggy event can be attributed to the warming. Your winter thoughts parallel mine. Eventually the warming will overpower winter as you said and our snow averages will drop steadily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 25, 2014 Share Posted June 25, 2014 Yes I do and no I don't How do you sleep when it's so warm and humid? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted June 25, 2014 Share Posted June 25, 2014 I agree. I think there are increased moisture levels as a result of a warming world, therefore preventing temps from dropping as low at night as they could have. Obviously this is a long term thing and not one specific muggy event can be attributed to the warming. Your winter thoughts parallel mine. Eventually the warming will overpower winter as you said and our snow averages will drop steadily. Especially in cities and nearby suburbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 25, 2014 Share Posted June 25, 2014 How do you sleep when it's so warm and humid? That's a loaded question Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted June 25, 2014 Share Posted June 25, 2014 Yes there will be an ultimate tipping point with our snowfall averages. Currently the warming tends to correlate with increased moisture thus a greater chance at more snowfall but the warmth will one day overcome the cold and most of our winter precipitation will be rain. I'm guessing that's very possible towards the end of this century if not even sooner especially in the warmer micro climates at and around the cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 25, 2014 Share Posted June 25, 2014 That's a loaded question Well he says that he loves heat and humidity. I don't mind it so much during the day but I find it impossible to sleep in that type of weather without air condtion. He claims that he's able to sleep comfortably without the AC on which I find unbelievable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted June 25, 2014 Share Posted June 25, 2014 Especially in cities and nearby suburbs. Well actually I read a report that warming is happening in extreme remote areas as well. I read an article about warming occurring in the heart of the Adirondacks. It was a great read, though you'll have to google for the link since I don't have it handy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted June 25, 2014 Share Posted June 25, 2014 You better believe it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted June 25, 2014 Share Posted June 25, 2014 Yes there will be an ultimate tipping point with our snowfall averages. Currently the warming tends to correlate with increased moisture thus a greater chance at more snowfall but the warmth will one day overcome the cold and most of our winter precipitation will be rain. I'm guessing that's very possible towards the end of this century if not even sooner especially in the warmer micro climates at and around the cities. When you add it up by liquid equivalent, most of our winter precipitation already is rain. I think it will take quite a bit of doing to markedly warm things enough to lower our snow averages-maybe in 50 years or so this could be the case. The last few years have favored quite a few coastal winter storms which haven't had borderline cold air for snow (some of the true outliers like October 2011 or November 2012 notwithstanding). Theoretically we could have fewer storms with snow due to the general airmass being warmer, but more from one or two storms with cold enough air to make up the difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 25, 2014 Share Posted June 25, 2014 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK1249 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2014AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND NORTHERNMID-ATLANTICCONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELYVALID 251749Z - 252015ZPROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENTSUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITYTHROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STRONG TO BRIEFLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILLBE POSSIBLE...WITH ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THE MAIN THREAT.DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ANDINTENSITY THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON IN AN ENVIRONMENTCHARACTERIZED BY PRECIPITABLE-WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2 INCHES.MLCAPE VALUES GENERALLY DECREASE FROM SOUTH-TO-NORTH ACROSS THE AREA/FROM 2000 J/KG TO LESS THAN 500 J/KG/...ALTHOUGH DEEP-LAYER SHEARVALUES GENERALLY INCREASE FROM SOUTH-TO-NORTH /FROM LESS THAN 20KNOTS TO AROUND 40 KNOTS/. THESE SOMEWHAT COMPENSATING FACTORSSHOULD SUPPORT STRONG TO BRIEFLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE MAINSEVERE THREAT BEING ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE FROM WET DOWNBURSTS GIVENTHE UNSEASONABLY MOIST AIR MASS...MARSH/CARBIN.. 06/25/2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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